Michigan State Spartans vs. Duke Blue Devils Odds, March Madness Analysis, Pick

The Michigan State Spartans are trying to become the second No. 7 seed ever to win a national championship but have a difficult obstacle in their way as they meet the Duke Blue Devils in the first game of the Final Four Saturday in Indianapolis.

The Spartans are 13-9 all-time as the lower-seeded team in the NCAA tournament and won their last two games as favorites against the No. 3 Oklahoma Sooners and No. 4 Louisville Cardinals to capture the East Region.

Meanwhile, the Blue Devils were the top seed in the South Region and won it by going 4-0 against the spread, capped by a 66-52 victory against the second-seeded Gonzaga Bulldogs as two-point favorites in the Elite Eight.

Opening spread

The Blue Devils opened as 4.5-point favorites; the total was 137. (Compare lines and consensus on the Odds Shark matchup report.)

Why pick Michigan State to cover the spread

Michigan State has won eight of its last nine games, going 6-3 against the spread during that stretch, including a perfect 4-0 in the Big Dance. In fact, the team’s only two straight-up losses over the past month both came against the Wisconsin Badgers, who are on the other side of the bracket in the Final Four.

The Spartans are appearing in their seventh Final Four under head coach Tom Izzo, who has led them to five wins in their past eight games as underdogs in the tournament. They upset the No. 2 Virginia Cavaliers 60-54 as 4.5-point dogs in the round of 32 and did not have to face the top-seeded Villanova Wildcats during their run to the East Region crown after they were knocked out by the No. 8 North Carolina State Wolfpack in the same round.

Michigan State rallied back from an eight-point halftime deficit to defeat Louisville 76-70 in overtime and cover as two-point favorites in the East Regional Final in Syracuse on Sunday.

Why pick Duke to cover the spread

Duke is coming off its best performance of the tourney against Gonzaga, putting together an outstanding all-around effort to eliminate one of the top scoring teams in the country. The Bulldogs were averaging 82.3 points per game in the Big Dance but connected on just 2-of-10 attempts from three-point range and turned the ball over 13 times to the Blue Devils, who committed only two turnovers of their own.

Duke has been able to win its past two games despite star center Jahlil Okafor scoring a combined 15 points. Okafor, the only freshman to ever win ACC Player of the Year honors, had averaged 25 points in the previous three games. Instead, fellow freshman Justise Winslow has emerged as a difference-maker, averaging nearly 17 points in the last three games to help fuel the offense.

Duke head coach Mike Krzyzewski has done a great job managing his players in tying John Wooden for the most Final Four appearances ever with 12.

Smart betting pick

The Blue Devils are 8-1 in the previous nine meetings with the Spartans, all of which have taken place from 1998 on with Izzo facing Krzyzewski. However, Michigan State has gone 5-3-1 ATS in those games, so bettors can expect a close game regardless of the seeding difference between the teams.

This has been one of Izzo’s best coaching jobs ever, and you can expect his players to go all out once again for him as they try to make it to the national title game. Play the Spartans here.

Power rankings (per Odds Shark power ranks)

Michigan State Spartans: No. 127

Duke Blue Devils: No. 10

March Madness betting trends

Duke is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games (4-0 ATS during the tournament).

Michigan State is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games (4-0 ATS during the tournament).

Michigan State is 5-3-1 ATS in its last nine games against Duke.

The under is 8-0 in Duke's last eight games as a favorite.

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