Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. Duke Blue Devils Betting Line, March Madness Analysis, Pick

The second-seeded Gonzaga Bulldogs have made it to the Elite Eight for the first time since 1999 and need to get by the top-seeded Duke Blue Devils in the South Regional final this Sunday in Houston to get to the Final Four for the first time in school history.

The Bulldogs continued their dominance in the NCAA tournament with a 74-62 win over the 11th-seeded UCLA Bruins in the Sweet 16 Friday, improving to 3-0 against the spread in the Big Dance by covering as 8.5-point favorites.

Likewise, the Blue Devils moved to 3-0 ATS as well with a somewhat controversial cover for those bettors who had them as anything greater than 4.5-point chalk in a 63-57 victory against the fifth-seeded Utah Utes after one second was put back on the clock for an additional free throw.

Opening spread

The Blue Devils opened as two-point favorites; the total was 145 (compare lines and consensus on the Odds Shark matchup report).

Why pick Gonzaga to cover the spread

Gonzaga has never made it this far in the NCAA tournament under head coach Mark Few, so nobody knows if and how any potential pressure may bother the players going up against a high-profile opponent like Duke in this spot. But the Bulldogs are the No. 2 seed for a reason and at the very least have lived up to it in getting to the Elite Eight.

Gonzaga head coach Mark Few put together a tough non-conference schedule at the beginning of the season to test his team in anticipation for moments like this, and so far, he and his squad have had an outstanding run in the Big Dance.

The Bulldogs had no problem taking care of UCLA in the Sweet 16, building a 35-28 halftime lead and then cruising to a fairly easy win. They got 18 points and nine rebounds from Przemek Karnowski against the Bruins, and his strong play inside helped lead to a 50-39 rebounding advantage, an area of the game that could be the difference when they face the Blue Devils.

Why pick Duke to cover the spread

Duke did not play its best game offensively against Utah in the Sweet 16, but the team was outstanding defensively in limiting the Utes to just 35 percent shooting from the field. The Blue Devils got 21 points and 10 rebounds from freshman Justise Winslow, while freshman point guard Tyus Jones scored 15 with nine coming at the free-throw line.

They were able to pull off the victory despite ACC Player of the Year Jahlil Okafor being held to only six points after he scored 47 combined in the first two games of the tournament. Okafor was one of three Duke players to total three fouls or more in the game, but fortunately, his teammates did just enough to advance.

The Blue Devils will welcome playing a more wide-open style versus Gonzaga and have won four of their last five Elite Eight games.

Smart betting pick

Duke has done a fine job adjusting to different styles of play throughout the tournament, something that is critical in order to get to the Final Four. Even though the win over the Utes was ugly, it was a win nonetheless and enabled the Blue Devils to move on to what some may consider a more favorable matchup.

While the Bulldogs will challenge Duke inside with some big bodies, Okafor is a monster who can get some of their key players in foul trouble. He was quiet in the last game and scored less than six points only one other time in the 34 others he played this season.

Because the Blue Devils simply have more talent overall, they will beat Gonzaga and the spread.

Power rankings (per Odds Shark power ranks)

Gonzaga Bulldogs: No. 12

Duke Blue Devils: No. 10

March Madness betting trends

Lower seeds are 13-7 ATS since 2010 in the Elite Eight.

Underdogs are 12-8 ATS since 2010 in the Elite Eight.

Gonzaga is 4-1 ATS in its last five games.

Duke is 15-1 SU in its last 16 games.

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