Utah Utes vs. Duke Blue Devils Betting Line, March Madness Analysis, Pick

The top-seeded Duke Blue Devils hope to avoid an upset bid by the fifth-seeded Utah Utes when they square off in a South Region Sweet 16 matchup Friday. The Blue Devils are just 3-6 in their past nine trips to the Sweet 16 and have gone 1-5-1 against the spread versus No. 5 seeds since 1996, losing four of the seven games.

Opening spread

The Blue Devils opened as 4.5-point favorites. (Compare lines and consensus on the Odds Shark matchup report.)

Why pick Utah to cover the spread

The Utes seem to be playing their best basketball of the season right now following a 75-64 win over the fourth-seeded Georgetown Hoyas as 4.5-point favorites in the round of 32. They are 2-0 against the spread in the Big Dance and have gotten solid bench play to outscore their first two opponents there as well. Utah’s reserves outscored the Hoyas' bench 22-3, led by Dakarai Parker, who has totaled 20 points in the tournament.

Utes point guard Delon Wright has not performed at his best yet either and could be the difference against Duke. Wright has averaged 13.5 points in the two tourney games after scoring 20 or more in three of the previous six. He averaged 14.7 points and 5.2 assists per game during the season and shot nearly 52 percent from the field, and his play could force the guards of the Blue Devils to exert more energy defensively.

Why pick Duke to cover the spread

Duke’s only two losses in its last 19 games both came against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, who fortunately are playing in the Midwest Region, and the teams would not meet again until the national championship. Like Utah, the Blue Devils have covered each of their first two games in the tournament, but they are also riding a 6-1 mark ATS in their past seven, with the lone non-cover coming against Notre Dame in the semifinals of the ACC tournament.

Duke’s biggest advantage in this matchup with the Utes is inside with freshman center Jahlil Okafor, the reigning ACC Player of the Year. Okafor has been a monster throughout what will probably be his lone season before leaving school for the NBA, and he scored a game-high 26 points with six rebounds in the team’s 68-49 rout of the eighth-seeded San Diego State Aztecs in the round of 32. Okafor scored 18 of those points in the first half against the Aztecs in helping the Blue Devils build a commanding 37-24 lead at the break and ultimately cover as nine-point favorites for the game.

Smart betting pick

Duke appears to be on a collision course to face the second-seeded Gonzaga Bulldogs Sunday in the South regional final, as both teams have played among the best in the Big Dance overall so far. First, the Blue Devils have to avoid this trap game against Utah, a gritty defensive team that is similar to San Diego State but faced better competition during the season in the Pac-12.

This looks to be a low-scoring game with the under cashing in six of the last seven games for Duke along with 15 of the past 18 when the Utes are underdogs. Bet those trends to continue.

Power rankings (per Odds Shark power rankings)

Utah Utes: No. 19

Duke Blue Devils: No. 10

March Madness betting trends

Duke is just 3-6 straight up in its past nine trips to the Sweet 16.

The under is 15-2-1 the past 18 times Utah has been an underdog since 2013.

Duke is riding a 6-1 ATS streak overall.

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