UCLA Bruins vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs Betting Line, March Madness Analysis, Pick

The 11th-seeded UCLA Bruins will try to continue their improbable NCAA tournament run in the Sweet 16 Friday when they meet the No. 2 Gonzaga Bulldogs in a regular-season rematch for a spot in the South Regional Final.

The Bruins are one of three Pac-12 schools still alive in the Big Dance, and many thought they did not belong in the 68-team field. But UCLA has covered the spread six straight times as an underdog with a 12-3 mark against the number in its past 15 overall.

Opening spread

The Bulldogs opened as 10-point favorites. (Compare lines and consensus on the Odds Shark matchup report.)

Why pick UCLA to cover the spread

The Bruins have not exactly had the most difficult road to the Sweet 16, but they have opened eyes a bit and proven themselves as a legit tourney team by winning their first two games. They got somewhat lucky in the round of 64 when a controversial goaltending call was made favoring them and led them to a 60-59 upset win over the sixth-seeded SMU Mustangs as four-point underdogs. And then UCLA got a favorable matchup in the round of 32 against the 14th-seeded UAB Blazers and routed them 92-75 as 5.5-point favorites.

Still, the Bruins have taken care of business no matter what any critics might think about them and really played in one of the most underrated conferences throughout the season. The better competition UCLA has played overall should definitely help here against a Gonzaga squad that has not played an opponent of this calibre since topping the Bruins 87-74 as 6.5-points favorites last December 13.

Why pick Gonzaga to cover the spread

The Bulldogs were near the beginning of a 22-game winning streak when they last met UCLA, capping a three-game stretch in which they played three consecutive Pac-12 schools. The only one they lost to over that period was the Arizona Wildcats, who are the No. 2 seed in the West Region and the second choice to win the NCAA tournament right now. Gonzaga fell just short against Arizona, losing 66-63 in overtime but still covering the spread as a 4.5-point road underdog.

The Bulldogs have covered three of their past four overall now, averaging nearly 86 points and giving up 70 per game during that time. Helping their case too in this spot is the fact that No. 2 seeds have gone 7-0 straight-up and 4-2-1 against the spread in the previous seven Sweet 16 matchups between them.

Smart betting pick

Gonzaga’s conference slate certainly is not anything to brag about, but head coach Mark Few tried to get his team ready for March Madness by scheduling some tough opponents early on in the season in an effort to build up confidence and show the players they can compete with anybody in the country. Meanwhile, the Bruins have been inconsistent all year, as their 13 losses would attest.

With No. 2 seeds winning eight of their last nine games in the Sweet 16, the No. 11 seed earning a victory against a much better opponent is unlikely here. The Bulldogs should be able to beat UCLA by double digits to cover the spread as well.

Power rankings (per Odds Shark power rankings)

UCLA Bruins: No. 67

Gonzaga Bulldogs: No. 12

March Madness betting trends

UCLA is 12-3 ATS in its past 15 games overall.

UCLA has played 11 straight under games as an underdog.

Gonzaga is 5-11 ATS as a March Madness favorite since 2000.

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