North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Wisconsin Badgers Betting, March Madness Odds, Pick

North Carolina is a perfect 9-0 straight-up and 6-3 against the spread over its last nine Sweet 16 appearances, while Wisconsin is 5-2 against the spread in its last seven games in the same spot. The top-seeded Badgers scrap with the fourth-seeded Tar Heels in a West region semifinal on Thursday night in Los Angeles.

Opening spread

The Badgers opened as 3.5-point favorites. (Compare lines and consensus on the Odds Shark matchup report.)

Why pick North Carolina to cover the spread?

The Tar Heels are in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2012 after beating Arkansas 87-78 on Saturday. Carolina trailed by a point about midway through the second half, but took control with a 17-4 run. The Heels shot 45 percent from the floor Saturday and made 29 of 37 free throws, helping them cover the spread as five-point favorites.

So UNC has won seven of its last nine contests, and its last four losses, going back to mid-February, have come against Notre Dame, Duke and North Carolina State, all of whom are still alive in the NCAA tournament. The Heels are also 11-9 straight up against teams that made the Big Dance this season.

Carolina is shooting 48 percent from the floor this season, while holding opponents to less than 40 percent field-goal shooting. If they can limit the turnovers and get hands in the faces of Wisconsin's shooters on the perimeter, the Heels might win this game outright.

Why pick Wisconsin to cover the spread?

The Badgers are in the Sweet 16 for the fourth time in the last five seasons after outlasting Oregon 72-65 on Sunday night. That game was tied with just under six minutes to go, but Wisconsin got a big three-pointer from Sam Dekker to build a short lead, then hit 10 of 12 free throws down the stretch to secure the victory.

The Badgers only shot 43 percent from the floor Sunday, but attempted 22 more free throws than the Ducks, committing just six turnovers. So Wisconsin has won 18 of its last 19 games, and is now 15-2 straight up against teams that made the Big Dance this season.

The Badgers had five different guys hit three-pointers Sunday, and none of them were named Frank Kaminsky, though he can shoot them as well when needed. Teams can't leave anybody open against Wisconsin, because every Badger can hit the open shot from 20 feet.

Smart betting pick

Wisconsin is rolling, but it is having a problem covering spreads. Over their last two dozen games, the Badgers are only 9-14-1 against the spread, in part because they've been favored by a bit too much too often. Also, underdogs on the betting lines are 21-10-1 against the spread in the Sweet 16 over the last four NCAA tournaments. In a game that could easily go either way, the smart money lies with the dog and the points.

Power rankings (per Odds Shark power ranks)

North Carolina Tar Heels: No. 26

Wisconsin Badgers: No. 5

March Madness betting trends

Wisconsin is 5-2 against the spread in the Sweet 16 since 2000.

North Carolina is 9-0 straight up and 6-3 against the spread in the Sweet 16 since 1996.

North Carolina is 0-5 straight up and against the spread as a March Madness underdog since 2000.

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