Xavier Musketeers vs. Arizona Wildcats Betting, March Madness Analysis, Pick

The Xavier Musketeers continue to be a great NCAA tournament bet, because with two wins and covers last week, Xavier is now 20-3-1 against the spread over its last 24 NCAA tournament games. The sixth-seeded Musketeers will shoot for the straight-out upset when they challenge the second-seeded Arizona Wildcats in a West Region bout Thursday night in Los Angeles.

Opening spread

The Wildcats opened as nine-point favorites. (Compare lines and consensus on the Odds Shark matchup report.)

Why pick Xavier to cover the spread

The Musketeers are back in the Sweet 16 for the fifth time in the last eight seasons after holding off upstart Georgia State Saturday 75-67. Xavier led most of the way, let the Panthers tie the game with about 15 minutes to go, then used a 7-0 run to re-assume control.

The Musketeers shot a blazing 68 percent from the floor, made seven of 13 from beyond the arc and hit 22 of 25 free throws, icing the cover as six-point favorites. Xavier has won five of its last six games, with four covers, and it's now 10-7 SU and 9-6-1 ATS this season against teams that made the NCAA tournament.

The Musketeers spread the ball around; they've got six guys averaging between 8.5 and 12 points per game. If they can avoid the turnovers and hit enough shots to snuff out any big Arizona runs, they'll have a chance to keep this one interesting.

Why pick Arizona to cover the spread

The Wildcats are back in the Sweet 16 for the third straight season after disposing of Ohio State Saturday 73-58. Arizona let the Buckeyes hang around for a half, then took control, leading by 15 at one point in the second half, covering the spread at minus-10. The Wildcats only shot 37 percent from the floor Saturday, but they hit 20 of 24 free throws and out-rebounded OSU 43-26.

So Arizona carries a 13-game winning streak into Thursday, with 11 of those victories coming by double digits. The Wildcats are also now 15-4 ATS over their last 19 games, and 12-0 SU and 7-5 ATS this season against teams that made the Big Dance.

Arizona is a dangerous outfit, almost toying with the Buckeyes Saturday, just to keep things interesting. On the season, the Wildcats are shooting 49 percent from the floor, holding foes to 39 percent field-goal shooting, and they're dominating on the boards to the tune of plus-nine rebounds per game.

Smart betting pick

Arizona has covered some big numbers this season, so the spread on this game almost seems like a bargain. Xavier might keep this one close for a while, but the Wildcats will likely wear the Musketeers down, like they did to Ohio State and many others before. The smart money here resides with Arizona.

Power rankings (per Odds Shark power ranks)

Xavier Musketeers: No. 119

Arizona Wildcats: No. 1

March Madness betting trends

Xavier is 20-3-1 ATS in its past 24 March Madness games.

Xavier is 5-0 ATS in the Sweet Sixteen.

Xavier is 12-1 ATS as a March Madness underdog since 2003.

Arizona is 11-3 ATS in its past 14 games as a double-digit favorite.

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