Wichita State Shockers vs. Kansas Jayhawks Betting, March Madness Analysis, Pick

Wichita State finally gets the chance it has been begging for in a match with Kansas, and in the NCAA tournament to boot. The Shockers have had success in the tournament as of late, with six covers in their last nine tournament games, while the Jayhawks are just 7-11 against the spread in their last 18 tournament contests.

Opening spread

The Jayhawks opened as 1.5-point favorites. (Compare lines and consensus on the Odds Shark matchup report.)

Why Wichita State should cover the spread

The Shockers won for the 10th time in their last 11 games Friday, beating Indiana 81-76. Wichita State trailed by four points about midway through the second half and then went on a 15-3 run to take the lead for good. The Shockers only shot 41 percent from the floor Friday and hit just two of 13 shots from beyond the arc, but they made 29 of 34 free throws and committed just seven turnovers to the Hoosiers' 13.

With the victory, Wichita State is now 6-3 both straight up and against the spread over its last nine NCAA tournament games. The Shockers don't particularly impress on offense, shooting 44.5 percent from the floor on the season, but they play great defense, holding foes to just under 40 percent field-goal shooting. They also do a good job on the boards, limiting second chances.

They should have motivation on their side for this one, because they haven't yet been able to goad the Jayhawks into playing them during the regular season.

Why Kansas should cover the spread

The Jayhawks made easy work of New Mexico State Friday night, winning 75-56 and covering as nine-point favorites. Kansas led by 18 in the first half and never let the Aggies get closer than 13 points after that. The Jayhawks shot 54 percent from the floor and hit nine of 13 shots from three-point land while holding New Mexico State to just 36 percent shooting.

Kansas is only 8-5 straight up and 5-8 against the spread over its last 13 games, but four of those losses came against teams that made the tournament, by a total of 12 points. On the season, including Friday's victory and cover, the Jayhawks are 14-6 straight up and 11-8 against the spread against NCAA qualifiers, and that's a lot of games against tough competition.

Kansas doesn’t necessarily scare anyone offensively, shooting 44 percent from the floor, but it also shoots 38 percent from beyond the arc while holding opponents to just 39 percent field-goal shooting. And one would imagine the Jayhawks don't want to lose this one to a program they want nothing to do with.

Smart betting pick

Remember the old adage about being careful about what you wish for? That might be the case for Wichita State Sunday. The Shockers have had another fine season; they just haven't played that many games against top competition. Kansas, meanwhile, is battle-tested. The smart money here lies with the Jayhawks.

Power rankings (per Odds Shark power ranks)

Wichita State Shockers: No. 4

Kansas Jayhawks: No. 177

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