Butler Bulldogs vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish Odds, March Madness Analysis, Pick

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish won their NCAA men's basketball tournament opener over the Northeastern Huskies Thursday but, in failing to cover the spread as 12-point favorites, dropped to 1-9 ATS over their last 10 tournament games.

The third-seeded Irish might have their hands full again when they tackle the sixth-seeded Butler Bulldogs in a Hoosier State Midwest Region bout Saturday night in Pittsburgh.

Opening spread

The Fighting Irish opened as 4.5-point favorites. (Compare lines and consensus on the Odds Shark matchup report.)

Why pick Butler to cover the spread?

The Bulldogs reached Saturday's round of 32 by gutting out a tough 56-48 victory over Texas Thursday, covering the spread as two-point favorites. Butler only led by a point with just under three minutes to go—then ended the game on a 12-5 run. The Bulldogs only shot 33 percent from the floor and got out-rebounded 41-28, but they hit 20-of-28 free throws and turned the ball over just five times.

So Butler is now an incredibly profitable 12-2-1 ATS over its last 15 NCAA tournament contests.

The Bulldogs finished in a tie (with Georgetown) for second place in the Big East, which sent six teams to the Big Dance. Butler played a top-15 schedule, with nonconference victories over North Carolina and Georgetown (in the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament). The Bulldogs would probably love nothing more than to add the Irish to their list of victims.

Why pick Notre Dame to cover the spread?

The Irish advanced to Saturday by holding off a game Northeastern on Thursday, 69-65. Notre Dame led by a dozen points with about six minutes to go but let the Huskies rally to within a bucket. The Fighting Irish then made a defensive stop and hit two free throws to seal the victory. The Irish shot a hot 57 percent from the floor Thursday—in part because they only attempted six three-pointers and committed just seven turnovers while Northeastern committed 16.

Notre Dame has won six games in a row—and covered five of those. The Irish finished in third place in the ACC, which sent six teams to the Big Dance. Notre Dame owns victories this season over Michigan State and Purdue. It also has two wins apiece over Duke and North Carolina. The Irish rank second in the country in field-goal shooting at 51 percent and in the top 20 in three-point shooting at 39 percent.

Smart betting pick

Many observers figured Butler would regress back to anonymity when head coach Brad Stevens left for the NBA. Those observers were mistaken, as new head coach Brandon Miller has the Dogs right back in the NCAA fight.

Notre Dame might have more talent, but Butler has the growl. At this point, who in their right mind would bet against these Bulldogs?

Power rankings (per Odds Shark power ranks)

Butler Bulldogs: No. 48

Notre Dame Fighting Irish: No. 87

March Madness betting trends

The under is 13-3 in the past 16 games when Butler was an underdog.

Notre Dame is just 1-4 SU in the round of 32 since 1996.

Butler is 0-3 SU and ATS against No. 3 seeds since 1996.

Note: All spread and betting-line data powered by Odds Shark—download the free Lines and Bet Tracker app in the Apple Store and on Google Play.