Robert Morris Colonials vs. Duke Blue Devils Odds, March Madness Analysis, Pick

The top-seeded Duke Blue Devils will try to avoid going out in their first game of the NCAA tournament for the second year in a row when they square off against the 16th-seeded Robert Morris Colonials in a South Region game that will be played in Charlotte, North Carolina, Friday.

The Blue Devils were bounced by the Mercer Bears 78-71 last year as 12.5-point favorites and will be double-digit chalk again here.

Opening spread

The Blue Devils opened as 22-point favorites. (Compare lines and consensus on the Odds Shark matchup report.)

Why pick Robert Morris to cover the spread

The Colonials are coming off an 81-77 comeback win over the North Florida Ospreys as four-point underdogs in the First Four Tuesday and hope to continue that momentum here against a much tougher opponent.

Robert Morris has covered the spread in four straight games now and has proven it can play at a fast pace. In the second half against North Florida, the Colonials outscored the Ospreys 52-42 to overcome a six-point halftime deficit. They got a combined 60 points from guards Marcquise Reed (19), Rodney Pryor (20) and Lucky Jones (21) and will need a similar performance from their backcourt to hang with Duke.

The good news is they gained a lot of confidence in rallying back against North Florida and can play loose in the next round knowing no No. 16 seed has ever beaten a No. 1 at the Big Dance.

Why pick Duke to cover the spread

The Blue Devils were a No. 3 seed last year when they were stunned by No. 14 Mercer in the opening round, and this year’s team was playing a lot better down the stretch until falling 74-64 to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in the semifinals of the ACC tournament.

That loss snapped a 12-game winning streak for Duke in which the team went 8-4 against the spread. The streak included two victories against the North Carolina Tar Heels, one against the North Carolina State Wolfpack and one against the Virginia Cavaliers—all NCAA tournament teams out of the ACC.

The conference got six teams into the Big Dance overall, and it remains one of the best in the country. That quality of play has helped the Blue Devils immensely in years past and will again here against an inferior opponent in Robert Morris.

Smart betting pick

Both teams have proven they can score a lot of points when needed outside of a few struggles here and there. One of those struggles for Duke came against Notre Dame, and you can bet head coach Mike Krzyzewski will make sure his team is playing a lot better offensively early on in the NCAA tournament.

In the last 11 games of the 12-game winning streak for the Blue Devils, they scored more than 70 points, averaging 82 per game during that stretch. Coach K knows how important offense is to Duke’s success this year, so bet this game to go over the total.

Power rankings (per Odds Shark power ranks)

Robert Morris Colonials: No. 166

Duke Blue Devils: No. 10

March Madness betting trends

Duke is 0-3 ATS in its past three round of 64 games.

Duke is 3-7 ATS in its past 10 round of 64 games.

Duke went 12-1 SU and 8-5 ATS to end the season.

The under is 8-1 the past nine times Duke has faced a No. 16 seed.

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