New Mexico State Aggies vs. Kansas Jayhawks Odds, March Madness Analysis, Pick

Kansas is once again a high seed for the NCAA tournament, but the Jayhawks are also just 1-4 against the spread in their last five round-of-64 games. Kansas will try to tackle a double-digit spread when it battles New Mexico State in the Midwest Region's No. 2 vs. No. 15 game Friday afternoon in Omaha, Nebraska.

Opening spread

The Jayhawks opened as 12-point favorites (compare lines and consensus on the Odds Shark matchup report).

Why pick New Mexico State to cover the spread

The Aggies cruised to the WAC regular-season title, going 13-1, then won the conference tournament, beating Seattle in the title game 80-61 to earn their fourth straight trip to the NCAA tournament. New Mexico State also rides a 13-game winning streak into the Big Dance.

Earlier this season, the Aggies lost road matchups to eventual Mountain Valley Conference champion Wichita State, Baylor and NCAA tournament snub Colorado State (in overtime) and beat Texas Southern, the dual champ in the Southwestern Athletic Conference, and UC-Irvine, which later won the Big West tournament. So on the season, New Mexico State is 2-3 straight up but 3-0 ATS against teams that made the NCAA tournament.

The Aggies are shooting 47 percent from the floor while holding opponents to 42 percent shooting, and they're doing a nice job on the boards. Last March, New Mexico State, as a No. 13 seed, took San Diego State to overtime in a round-of-64 NCAA tournament game, losing 73-69 but covering as an eight-point underdog.

Why pick Kansas to cover the spread

Ho-hum, the Jayhawks won the Big 12 again this season, going 13-5 in a conference that sent seven of its 10 teams to the Big Dance. They also made it to the conference tournament title game, losing to Iowa State, and with the at-large bid will be making their 26th straight appearance at the NCAA tournament.

Kansas has struggled just a bit lately, going 5-4 SU and just 2-7 ATS over its last nine games, but the Jayhawks were also dealing with a couple of personnel issues, and six of those games came against teams that made the tournament.

On the season, the Jayhawks own victories over Michigan State, Georgetown, Utah, Lafayette (which won the Patriot League tournament), Baylor, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Texas, Iowa State and West Virginia. So KU is 13-6 SU and 10-8 ATS against NCAA tournament qualifiers, and that's a ton of games against good competition.

Smart betting pick

Last March New Mexico State covered a round of 64 game against San Diego State, while Kansas, as a No. 2 seed (like this year), couldn't cover at -13 against Eastern Kentucky. And that Jayhawks team was better than this one. So the smart money here probably lies with the Aggies, plus the points.

Power rankings (per Odds Shark power ranks)

New Mexico State Aggies: No. 130

Kansas Jayhawks: No. 177

March Madness betting trends

- Kansas went just 5-4 SU and 2-7 ATS to end the season.

- Kansas is 1-7 ATS in its past eight games as favorites.

- Kansas is 1-5 ATS in its past six NCAA tournament games.

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