Indiana Hoosiers vs. Wichita State Shockers Odds, March Madness Analysis, Pick

Indiana limps into this NCAA tournament with one win and one cover in its last five games, while Wichita State is 9-1 straight up and 6-3-1 against the spread over its last 10 contests.

So it's one team lucky to make the tournament against another that's probably unhappy it got seeded so poorly when the No. 10 Hoosiers take on the No. 7 Shockers in the Midwest Region Friday afternoon in Omaha, Nebraska.

Opening spread

The Shockers opened as 5.5-point favorites. (Compare lines and consensus on the Odds Shark matchup report.)

Why pick Indiana to cover the spread

The Hoosiers finished .500 in a Big Ten conference that sent seven teams to the Big Dance, and there's something to be said for that.

Indiana owns victories this season over Texas Southern (which won both SWAC titles), SMU (which won both AAC titles), Butler, Ohio State and Maryland. The Hoosiers also had some tough losses against Georgetown, Purdue, Michigan State and Maryland (the second time around).

The Hoosiers can throw it in the hole at a pretty good rate, shooting 40 percent from three-point range this season while averaging 78 points per game. They have a go-to guy in guard Yogi Ferrell, who had some of his best games this season against Indiana's toughest foes. If the Hoosiers can hit their threes Friday, they could win this game outright.

Why pick Wichita State to cover the spread

The Shockers won the Missouri Valley regular-season title with a 17-1 record before getting upset in the conference tournament by Illinois State. At 28-4, they probably think they deserve a much better seed than No. 7.

Wichita State owns a win this season over New Mexico State (dual champs in the WAC), and they split two games with the Valley's other Big Dance participant, Northern Iowa, beating the Panthers in the regular-season finale for the conference championship. The Shockers also lost a game earlier this season at Utah by one point in overtime.

Wichita State earns its keep on the defensive end of the court, holding opponents to under 40 percent field-goal shooting and just 56 points per game, seventh-stingiest in the nation. The Shockers have also been a good tournament bet over recent seasons, going 8-3 ATS in their last 11 NCAA tournament games.

Smart betting pick

Indiana didn't deserve to make this NCAA tournament, let alone earn even a No. 10 seed. Wichita State, meanwhile, lost its last game in the MVC tournament, but sometimes a loss like that can be good for a team looking to make a run. And the Shockers probably feel dissed with their lousy seeding. The smart money in this spot resides with Wichita State.

Power rankings (per Odds Shark power rankings)

Indiana Hoosiers: No. 23

Wichita State Shockers: No. 4

March Madness betting trends

Indiana has lost six straight as an underdog, covering the spread just twice.

Wichita State is 8-3 ATS in its past 11 tournament games.

Indiana is 0-5 ATS in its past five tournament games.

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