UAB Blazers vs. Iowa State Cyclones Betting Line, March Madness Analysis, Pick

The third-seeded Iowa State Cyclones hope to continue riding their late-season momentum into the NCAA tournament when they face the 14th-seeded UAB Blazers in a South Region matchup in Louisville Thursday.

The Cyclones have won five straight games, capped by a 70-66 upset victory in the Big 12 Championship Game against the Kansas Jayhawks as 2.5-point underdogs. But the Odds Shark computer is pegging UAB to cover the spread here with a 76-67 final score.

Opening spread

The Cyclones opened as 12.5-point favorites (compare lines and consensus on the Odds Shark matchup report).

Why pick UAB to cover the spread

Iowa State’s winning streak is only noteworthy because it is capped by a win over Kansas. UAB’s streak of eight straight covers as an underdog is far more impressive, especially since it also includes winning five of six straight up.

The Blazers performed well in winning the Conference USA tournament, knocking out the top-seeded Louisiana Tech Bulldogs with a 72-62 victory as 5.5-point underdogs in the semifinals and then following that up with a 73-60 win in the title game over the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders as two-point favorites.

UAB had failed to cover the spread in its previous four games, and continued that trend in seven of nine, which immediately followed a stretch in which the team covered 10 in a row.

Why pick Iowa State to cover the spread

The Cyclones are 5-2 ATS in winning four of their last seven NCAA tournament games, and they may have their best team since they were a No. 2 seed back in 2000 and made it all the way to the Elite Eight. Last year, Iowa State was also a No. 3 seed and got to the Sweet 16, where the team lost 81-76 to the eventual national champion Connecticut Huskies.

The Cyclones have played better over an extended stretch beyond their current five-game winning streak this year, taking eight of their past 10 to go along with a 7-2-1 ATS mark. The Blazers also struggled prior to the semis of the Conference USA tourney, going 2-6-1 ATS in their previous nine.

Smart betting pick

While UAB’s underdog streak will certainly be on the line here, the Cyclones are easily the better team and played much tougher competition this season in the Big 12. The fact that Conference USA got just one team into the Big Dance speaks volumes, especially when compared to seven bids for the Big 12.

The Blazers played four NCAA tournament teams before 2014 came to a close and went 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS. Two of those losses—to the Wisconsin Badgers and North Carolina Tar Heels—were decided by a combined 60 points. The final result of this game may not be as lopsided, but Iowa State has what it takes to blow out UAB by more than 20 points.

Power rankings (per Odds Shark power ranks)

UAB Blazers: No. 66

Iowa State Cyclones: No. 76

March Madness betting trends

- Iowa State is 6-2-1 ATS in its past nine games as a favorite.

- UAB has covered eight straight games as underdogs since January.

- Iowa State is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in round-of-64 games since 1996.

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