Belmont Bruins vs. Virginia Cavaliers Betting Line, March Madness Analysis, Pick

Virginia was a great bet earlier this season, covering the spread in 12 of its first 16 lined games. However, the Cavaliers have been leaking cash lately, going 5-9 against the spread over the last five weeks. Second-seeded Virginia is a double-digit favorite for its opening NCAA tournament game against 15th-seeded Belmont Friday afternoon in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Opening spread

The Cavaliers opened as 16.5-point favorites. (Compare lines and consensus on the Odds Shark matchup report.)

Why pick Belmont to cover the spread

The Bruins are playing in the NCAA tournament for the fourth time in the last five seasons after again winning the Ohio Valley tournament, this time hitting a three-pointer in the waning seconds to upset Murray State 88-87 in the championship game.

So Belmont comes into this NCAA tournament having won seven games in a row overall and six in a row against the spread. The Bruins do most of their damage on the offensive end of the court; they're shooting 48 percent from the floor and 38 percent from three-point range, averaging almost 75 points per game.

They've also been playing a little defense as of late, holding five of their last seven opponents to 64 points or less. If Belmont can hit its threes, hold its own on the boards and limit the turnovers, it could keep this one interesting.

Why pick Virginia to cover the spread

The Cavaliers won the ACC regular-season title for the second year in a row, going 16-2 in a conference that sent six teams to this NCAA tournament. On the season, Virginia lost three games—to powers Duke, Louisville and North Carolina—while beating, among others, Maryland, VCU, Harvard, Davidson, North Carolina State, Notre Dame, North Carolina, and Louisville.

The Cavs make most of their hay on the defensive end of the court, holding opponents to 36 percent field-goal shooting, which ranks third-best in the nation, and just under 51 points per game, which leads the nation.

Virginia also got a little healthier recently with the return of guard Justin Anderson after he missed eight games with injuries. Anderson, second on the team at 12 points per game, didn't do much in his first two games back, but a few extra days of practice might help.

Smart betting pick

Virginia is most likely going to win this game, but the Cavs are not exactly an offensive powerhouse. That's not their style. They may strangle teams, but they don't run them out of the gym.

Belmont, meanwhile, has the ability to keep this one close by hitting from downtown. And an experienced backcourt should keep the Bruins focused. So the smart choice here is with the underdog and the points.

Power rankings (per Odds Shark power ranks)

Belmont Bruins: No. 41

Virginia Cavaliers: No. 37

March Madness betting trends

Belmont is just 7-23 straight-up as an underdog since 2009.

Belmont is 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in March Madness play.

Virginia is 27-3 SU in its past 30 games but 1-2 in its past three.

Virginia is 1-4-1 ATS in its past six games as double-digit chalk.

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