Texas Longhorns vs. Butler Bulldogs Betting Line, March Madness Analysis, Pick

The Butler Bulldogs, who are playing in the NCAA tournament for the seventh time in the last nine seasons, are 5-1 both straight up and against the spread in their last six Big Dance openers.

The Bulldogs will be looking for another opening-round victim when they take on Texas in the Midwest's No. 6 vs. No. 11 game Thursday afternoon in Pittsburgh.

Opening spread

This game opened as a pick'em but the line moved towards Texas, who sat today as a two-point favorite. (Compare lines and consensus on the Odds Shark matchup report.)

Why pick Texas to cover the spread

The Longhorns have had some trouble with close games this season, but thanks to a late three-game winning streak, they made the tournament nonetheless. Texas only went 8-10 in the Big 12, but it was a tough Big 12 that sent seven teams to the Big Dance. The Longhorns also played through a couple of key injuries, and now stand about as healthy as they've been all season.

Texas owns victories over North Dakota State (champion of the Summit League), Iowa, West Virginia and Baylor this season.

However, they suffered numerous close losses against quality foes, including a three-point loss at Iowa State, an overtime loss to Oklahoma State, a one-bucket game at Oklahoma, a five-point game at Kansas and a one-bucket game lost at the buzzer in the Big 12 tournament against the eventual champion Cyclones.

Texas ranks fourth in the nation in field-goal defense, holding foes to under 37-percent shooting, and dominates on the boards. It has the ability to make a run in this tournament.

Why pick Butler to cover the spread

Not much was expected of the Bulldogs coming into this season, which was their second since jumping to a tougher conference, but Butler rose above expectations to qualify for this NCAA tournament as an at-large participant.

The Bulldogs finished in a tie for second place in the Big East, with wins over St. John's, Xavier and Providence, all teams headed to the Big Dance. Butler also picked up victories earlier this season over North Carolina, Georgetown and Belmont (the OVC champion). Of the 10 games the Bulldogs lost, nine came against tournament qualifiers, and five came by six points or less, one in overtime.

Butler doesn't dazzle. It's only shooting 44 percent from the floor. It just grinds down opponents, wins possessions, does a good job on the boards and eventually gets its way, most of the time.

Smart betting pick

Sure, Texas could make a run in this tournament, but it could also flame out in its opener. Physically, and statistically, the 'Horns are impressive. They just seem to find ways to lose games, instead of win them.

Butler, meanwhile, is the opposite. Which of these teams is more likely to make the big plays down the stretch of a close game? The Bulldogs.

The computer says Butler will win outright 63-61.

Power rankings (per Odds Shark power ranks)

Texas Longhorns: No. 90

Butler Bulldogs: No. 48

March Madness betting trends

Texas is 6-1 straight up in its past seven games as favorites.

Butler had eight straight under results to end the season.

Butler is 7-2 straight up and 8-1 against the spread in its past nine round-of-64 games.

Texas is 0-3-1 against the spread in its past four round-of-64 games.

Note: All spread and betting-line data powered by Odds Shark—download the free Lines and Bet Tracker app in the Apple Store and on Google Play.