Lafayette Leopards vs. Villanova Wildcats Betting, March Madness Analysis, Pick

The top-seeded Villanova Wildcats have won 15 straight games heading into the NCAA tournament and will face the 16th-seeded Lafayette Leopards Thursday in their opening game of the East Region in Pittsburgh.

The Wildcats have also been outstanding against the spread during their winning streak, going 13-2 since suffering their last loss, a 78-58 defeat against the Georgetown Hoyas as four-point road favorites back on January 19.

Opening spread

The Wildcats opened as 22.5-point favorites (compare lines and consensus on the Odds Shark matchup report). The prediction computer has Villanova winning 85-60, which would cover the current spread.

Why pick Lafayette to cover the spread

The Leopards have won five of their past six games heading into the Big Dance, capped by a 65-63 victory against the American Eagles as four-point favorites in the Patriot League title game. Despite failing to cover the spread in the win over American, Lafayette beat the number in its previous two conference tourney games, including an 89-64 rout of the Boston Terriers as four-point favorites on March 5.

The Leopards have not made the NCAA tournament since 2000, when they were a No. 15 seed and got blown out by the second-seeded Temple Owls 73-47 as 21-point underdogs. That was obviously long ago, and this Lafayette team will be excited to have a shot at hanging with Villanova, no matter the seeding.

Why pick Villanova to cover the spread

The Wildcats are one of the hottest teams in the entire tournament, which is why they ended up earning a No. 1 seed over other top contenders from bigger conferences such as the Pac-12’s Arizona Wildcats and the ACC’s Virginia Cavaliers.

And outside of a close 63-61 win over the defending Big East champion Providence Friars in the tournament semifinals this year, Villanova has not just been getting by either. The Wildcats have absolutely dominated opponents during their winning streak, with 11 of the 15 victories having been decided by 11 points or more.

They were a No. 2 seed last year when they lost to the eventual national champions, the seventh-seeded Connecticut Huskies, 77-65 as 4.5-point favorites. But in the round of 64, Villanova had no trouble disposing of the 15th-seeded Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers 73-53 to cover the spread as a 16.5-point favorite.

Smart betting pick

The Wildcats are coming out of a much weaker Big East than in years past, and that will probably catch up to them at some point in the NCAA tournament when they have to play better competition. Granted, the Leopards do not pose much of a challenge on paper, but Villanova has gone only 1-6 ATS in its past seven games in the Big Dance, also losing three of its past four straight up when favored in the tournament.

The Wildcats will most likely win this game, like every other No. 1 seed before them, but that does not mean they will cover the spread. Top seeds are just 2-6 ATS in the second round over the past two years combined, with three No. 16 seeds staying within 12 points in 2014. Look for that to happen again in this spot.

Power rankings

Lafayette Leopards: No. 297

Villanova Wildcats: No. 3 (per Odds Shark power ranks)

March Madness betting trends

Villanova finished the season on a 15-0 SU and 13-2 ATS run.

Villanova went 14-5 ATS this season as double-digit favorites.

Villanova is just 1-6 ATS in its past seven March Madness games.

Villanova is just 2-6 ATS in the round of 64 since 2006.

Note: All spread and betting line data powered by Odds Shark. Download the free Lines and Bet Tracker app in the Apple Store and on Google Play.