Penn State Sneaks Past Iowa! How Will Your Team Do in Week 4?

WhatIfSports.com will preview a week of the college football season each day for 15 days, including projected scores from 10,000simulations for all FBS games and updated standings as of that week.

Once we have reached the end of the season, we will present our projected bowl match-ups with results.

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For more information on how we generate the results and the definitions of Absolute and Expected Records, click here.

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Each regular season FBS game is simulated 10,000 times. The Absolute Record is simply the total number of games in which a team is favored. The Expected Record, the more accurate approach, is the sum of the team's win probabilities from each game.

The Expected Record accounts for the fact that some wins are less certain than others (a 50.1 percent win is different than a 99 percent win). Since the favored team does not win every game (otherwise, why would we watch?), the likelihood of an upset is important to take into account.

We may ultimately say that six teams are favored to win all of their games, but we don't expect any to do so.

Also, since we are rounding, it is possible for a team to win a game more often, yet score the same or fewer points than the opponent on average. In those cases, for Absolute Records, we always take higher winning percentage.

We are not predicting a tie or a win by an underdog. This is another reason why the expected records are more accurate, as the teams are so evenly matched, the game could easily go either way.

The inputs to the simulations are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings from 2008.

Once this step is complete, we make our modifications for 2009 based on returning starters (who, where and how many), expected progression of returning players in new roles, depth at each position and incoming recruits and transfers.

Games for each week are ordered by the conference of the home team and then winning percentage of the home team, with the score reading the visitors first followed by the home team.

If a team is listed as having a 95 percent chance of winning, that means that it won at 95 percent or more of the 10,000 simulations.

Every underdog has a chance to win. Along those lines, this may be relatively obvious for some examples (i.e. James Madison vs. Maryland), but non-FBS rosters and ratings are not maintained individually due to lack of data. In other words, right or wrong, all non-FBS teams are treated equally.

Today we preview Week 4 (9/26/09).

Game of the Week: No. 16 Iowa 18 (3 - 1) @ No. 13 Penn State 22 (3 - 1)

In another game where homefield advantage should mean the difference, Penn State hosts fellow top 20 team Iowa in the Big Ten opener for both squads.

By week four, Daryll Clark and Penn State should have the passing game figured out after losing three senior starting wide receivers, while Iowa will know if Jewel Hampton is the answer to replace Shonn Greene.

In a typical Big Ten battle, points will be hard to come by and most of the yards will come on the ground. Watch for Nittany Lions' junior running back Evan Royster to feed off the home crowd and break a big play to edge the Hawkeyes.

Penn State wins 56.8 percent of the time and by an average score of 22-18.

Matchup	Home Win%	Avg Score
North Carolina Central @ Duke	93.4	7-26
Miami (FL) @ Virginia Tech	82.4	9-24
North Carolina @ Georgia Tech	76.7	11-23
South Florida @ Florida State	72.4	16-25
Wake Forest @ Boston College	37.5	15-12
Rutgers @ Maryland	35.2	24-21
TCU @ Clemson	34.6	15-13
Pittsburgh @ North Carolina State	30.6	20-16
Grambling State @ Oklahoma State	95.0	8-62
Louisiana-Lafayette @ Nebraska	95.0	13-38
Northwestern State @ Baylor	95.0	9-45
UTEP @ Texas	95.0	9-58
Tennessee Tech @ Kansas State	84.7	9-24
Army @ Iowa State	62.5	15-22
Southern Miss @ Kansas	59.1	25-30
UAB @ Texas A&M	32.6	28-25
Rhode Island @ Connecticut	95.0	7-29
Maine @ Syracuse	83.7	9-23
Fresno State @ Cincinnati	78.7	16-29
Indiana @ Michigan	87.0	9-25
Illinois @ Ohio State	74.8	17-28
Michigan State @ Wisconsin	57.8	15-20
Iowa @ Penn State	56.8	18-22
Minnesota @ Northwestern	32.6	16-12
Notre Dame @ Purdue	5.0	26-7
Sam Houston State @ Tulsa	95.0	8-41
UCF @ East Carolina	95.0	7-27
McNeese State @ Tulane	74.4	12-23
Texas Tech @ Houston	59.5	32-38
Marshall @ Memphis	40.5	20-19
Vanderbilt @ Rice	34.2	20-16
Western Kentucky @ Navy	95.0	7-40
Hofstra @ Western Michigan	95.0	8-37
Miami (OH) @ Kent State	91.0	8-31
Idaho @ Northern Illinois	86.4	9-28
Akron @ Central Michigan	79.7	17-29
Buffalo @ Temple	49.5	14-15
Boise State @ Bowling Green	7.3	33-14
San Diego State @ Air Force	95.0	12-35
Louisville @ Utah	93.7	11-33
Colorado State @ Brigham Young	93.0	17-38
New Mexico State @ New Mexico	75.7	13-23
UNLV @ Wyoming	35.9	19-17
Washington State @ USC	95.0	4-69
Washington @ Stanford	94.4	11-35
Arizona @ Oregon State	60.5	20-25
California @ Oregon	27.9	24-17
Arkansas @ Alabama	95.0	6-38
Ohio @ Tennessee	94.0	9-28
Arizona State @ Georgia	93.0	10-31
Ball State @ Auburn	48.2	17-19
Florida @ Kentucky	5.0	61-6
LSU @ Mississippi State	5.0	42-7
Mississippi @ South Carolina	5.0	38-9
Toledo @ Florida International	73.1	13-23
Louisiana-Monroe @ Florida Atlantic	72.8	15-26
Troy @ Arkansas State	56.8	19-22
Middle Tennessee @ North Texas	19.6	23-13
Middle Tennessee @ North Texas	17.9	23-12
Cal Poly @ San Jose State	85.4	6-20
Southern Utah @ Utah State	85.0	10-25
Missouri @ Nevada	51.2	30-33

Week 4 Standings

Conference	Team	Abs Record	Exp Record
Atlantic Coast	Florida State	4 - 0	3 - 1
Atlantic Coast	Georgia Tech	4 - 0	3 - 1
Atlantic Coast	Duke	3 - 1	3 - 1
Atlantic Coast	North Carolina State	3 - 1	3 - 1
Atlantic Coast	North Carolina	3 - 1	3 - 1
Atlantic Coast	Virginia Tech	3 - 1	3 - 1
Atlantic Coast	Boston College	2 - 2	2 - 2
Atlantic Coast	Clemson	2 - 2	2 - 2
Atlantic Coast	Maryland	2 - 2	2 - 2
Atlantic Coast	Wake Forest	2 - 2	2 - 2
Atlantic Coast	Virginia	1 - 2	1 - 2
Atlantic Coast	Miami (FL)	0 - 3	1 - 2
Big 12	Oklahoma State	4 - 0	4 - 0
Big 12	Texas	4 - 0	4 - 0
Big 12	Baylor	3 - 0	3 - 0
Big 12	Oklahoma	3 - 0	3 - 0
Big 12	Kansas	4 - 0	3 - 1
Big 12	Nebraska	3 - 1	3 - 1
Big 12	Missouri	2 - 2	3 - 1
Big 12	Colorado	2 - 1	2 - 1
Big 12	Iowa State	2 - 2	2 - 2
Big 12	Kansas State	2 - 2	2 - 2
Big 12	Texas Tech	2 - 2	2 - 2
Big 12	Texas A&M	0 - 3	1 - 2
Big East	West Virginia	3 - 0	3 - 0
Big East	Pittsburgh	4 - 0	3 - 1
Big East	Rutgers	4 - 0	3 - 1
Big East	South Florida	3 - 1	3 - 1
Big East	Louisville	2 - 1	2 - 1
Big East	Cincinnati	2 - 2	2 - 2
Big East	Connecticut	2 - 2	2 - 2
Big East	Syracuse	1 - 3	1 - 3
Big Ten	Penn State	4 - 0	3 - 1
Big Ten	Wisconsin	4 - 0	3 - 1
Big Ten	Iowa	3 - 1	3 - 1
Big Ten	Northwestern	3 - 1	3 - 1
Big Ten	Ohio State	3 - 1	3 - 1
Big Ten	Illinois	2 - 1	2 - 1
Big Ten	Michigan State	2 - 2	2 - 2
Big Ten	Michigan	2 - 2	2 - 2
Big Ten	Minnesota	2 - 2	2 - 2
Big Ten	Indiana	1 - 3	2 - 2
Big Ten	Purdue	2 - 2	1 - 3
Conference USA	Southern Miss	3 - 1	3 - 1
Conference USA	Tulsa	3 - 1	3 - 1
Conference USA	Houston	2 - 1	2 - 1
Conference USA	Southern Methodist	2 - 1	2 - 1
Conference USA	East Carolina	2 - 2	2 - 2
Conference USA	Marshall	2 - 2	2 - 2
Conference USA	UAB	2 - 2	2 - 2
Conference USA	UTEP	2 - 2	2 - 2
Conference USA	Tulane	1 - 2	1 - 2
Conference USA	Memphis	1 - 3	2 - 2
Conference USA	Rice	1 - 3	1 - 3
Conference USA	UCF	1 - 3	1 - 3
Independents (FBS)	Notre Dame	4 - 0	3 - 1
Independents (FBS)	Navy	2 - 2	2 - 2
Independents (FBS)	Army	1 - 3	1 - 3
Mid-American	Western Michigan	4 - 0	3 - 1
Mid-American	Ball State	4 - 0	3 - 1
Mid-American	Kent State	3 - 1	3 - 1
Mid-American	Akron	2 - 2	2 - 2
Mid-American	Central Michigan	2 - 2	2 - 2
Mid-American	Northern Illinois	2 - 2	2 - 2
Mid-American	Ohio	2 - 2	2 - 2
Mid-American	Temple	1 - 2	1 - 2
Mid-American	Eastern Michigan	0 - 3	1 - 2
Mid-American	Buffalo	2 - 2	1 - 3
Mid-American	Bowling Green	1 - 3	1 - 3
Mid-American	Toledo	0 - 4	1 - 3
Mid-American	Miami (OH)	0 - 4	0 - 4
Mountain West	TCU	3 - 0	3 - 0
Mountain West	Air Force	4 - 0	3 - 1
Mountain West	Utah	3 - 1	3 - 1
Mountain West	UNLV	3 - 1	2 - 2
Mountain West	Brigham Young	2 - 2	2 - 2
Mountain West	Colorado State	2 - 2	2 - 2
Mountain West	San Diego State	2 - 2	2 - 2
Mountain West	Wyoming	1 - 3	2 - 2
Mountain West	New Mexico	2 - 2	1 - 3
Pacific-10	California	4 - 0	4 - 0
Pacific-10	USC	4 - 0	4 - 0
Pacific-10	Oregon State	4 - 0	3 - 1
Pacific-10	Stanford	4 - 0	3 - 1
Pacific-10	Arizona State	2 - 1	2 - 1
Pacific-10	UCLA	2 - 1	2 - 1
Pacific-10	Oregon	3 - 1	2 - 2
Pacific-10	Arizona	2 - 2	2 - 2
Pacific-10	Washington	1 - 3	1 - 3
Pacific-10	Washington State	0 - 4	1 - 3
Southeastern	Alabama	4 - 0	4 - 0
Southeastern	Florida	4 - 0	4 - 0
Southeastern	LSU	4 - 0	4 - 0
Southeastern	Mississippi	3 - 0	3 - 0
Southeastern	Georgia	3 - 1	3 - 1
Southeastern	Tennessee	3 - 1	3 - 1
Southeastern	Vanderbilt	3 - 1	2 - 2
Southeastern	Mississippi State	1 - 3	2 - 2
Southeastern	Arkansas	1 - 2	1 - 2
Southeastern	Kentucky	1 - 2	1 - 2
Southeastern	Auburn	1 - 3	1 - 3
Southeastern	South Carolina	1 - 3	1 - 3
Sun Belt	Arkansas State	2 - 1	2 - 1
Sun Belt	Louisiana-Lafayette	2 - 2	2 - 2
Sun Belt	Troy	2 - 2	2 - 2
Sun Belt	Middle Tennessee	3 - 2	2 - 3
Sun Belt	Florida Atlantic	1 - 2	1 - 2
Sun Belt	Florida International	1 - 2	1 - 2
Sun Belt	Louisiana-Monroe	1 - 3	1 - 3
Sun Belt	North Texas	0 - 5	1 - 4
Western Athletic	Boise State	3 - 1	3 - 1
Western Athletic	Hawaii	2 - 1	2 - 1
Western Athletic	Louisiana Tech	2 - 1	2 - 1
Western Athletic	Nevada	2 - 1	2 - 1
Western Athletic	New Mexico State	2 - 2	2 - 2
Western Athletic	Utah State	2 - 1	1 - 2
Western Athletic	Fresno State	1 - 3	1 - 3
Western Athletic	San Jose State	1 - 3	1 - 3
Western Athletic	Idaho	0 - 4	1 - 3

A schedule of our 2009 College Football Preview, including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

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Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at [e-mail]. Thanks!