Free MLB Pick: Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres: August 19th 2009

Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres
Free MLB Pick: Under 7 Runs (August 19th 2009)
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We played the Under in the Chicago Cubs, San Diego Padres matchup last night, and lost on an inside-the-park home run in the bottom of the eighth inning. We are coming right back with the Under again tonight, hopefully without such bad luck.

Rich Harden of the Cubbies has some of the best stuff in the National League when he is healthy, and he certainly looks healthy now. Harden has allowed two earned runs or fewer in each of his last six starts, and those outings came against stronger offenses than this weak San Diego unit. The Padres are hitting an ugly .219 as a team at home this year, and not surprisingly, Harden held them to two runs and four hits the only other time he faced them in 2009.

Now the Pads are high on rookie Matt Latos, and he has managed a winning 4-2 record while pitching for a bad team. Latos has appreciated the dimensions of this ballpark, as he has a 2.65 ERA and 1.12 WHP in his three home starts. He is facing a Cubs offense that is averaging just 3.92 runs per game on the road, and which figures to struggle again facing Latos for the first time ever.

Finally, Petco Park is the most pitcher-friendly stadium in baseball, with games here averaging a combined 7.76 runs, and you can probably shave a couple of runs off of that given this pitching matchup.

MLB Free Pick: Cubs, Padres Under 7 (-125)