Free MLB Pick: Florida Marlins vs. Houston Astros: August 18th 2009

Florida Marlins vs. Houston Astros 8:05 ET
A pair of teams hoping to have an impact on the playoffs in the National League do battle in the Lone Star State on Tuesday night where the Houston Astros (57-61, -$76) will play host to the Florida Marlins (63-55, +$900). The Fish enter this game having won eight of their L/10 and right in the mix for the NL Wild Card chase. The Astros probably need to catch fire in a hurry to stay in the race; losing five of their L/7 hasn’t helped their cause any.

The Marlins currently sit as as slender -115 road favorites, while the sports betting ‘total’ has been placed at 9 under -125. You can find these and all of the other great MLB betting lines for Tuesday night at BetUS Sportsbook right now!

After a disappointing start in his last outing, RHP Ricky Nolasco will be back on the bump on Tuesday night. Nolasco conceded a whopping ten runs in just 3.1 innings against these Astros last week in Florida’s 14-6 loss. Prior to that start though, the right-hander had been on fire, pitching four straight games of allowing two runs or less. Nolasco may only be 8-8 with a 5.44 ERA on the season, but that is a marked improvement from the 2-5 record and 9.07 ERA he had at the end of May. Since that point, Marlins bettors are 9-4 in his 13 starts, and have earned a cool $638 in the process. Nolasco is 2-1 in four career appearances against the ‘Stros, but his 8.35 career ERA is bloated thanks to his miserable outing last week.

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The Astros will counter by sending rookie RHP Bud Norris to the mound. After just three starts, Norris has already netted MLB bettors over five units on the season, making him one of the Top-10 money pitchers in the NL. He’s a perfect 3-0 with a 3.00 ERA. Opposing batters are only hitting .228 against him in 21.0 IPs. His last start wasn’t fantastic, but thanks to how poorly Nolasco pitched in that game, Norris’ four earned runs in five innings was good enough for the victory. Norris has only made one career start in Houston, and that came back on August 7th. He pitched six innings, allowing just three hits and two runs in the Astros’ 6-3 win over Milwaukee.

Six straight meetings between these teams have eclipsed the ‘total’. The winning team has scored at least eight runs in all six of those outings. Norris may be the hot pitcher, but it’s hard to believe that his luck is going to continue. Nolasco has really pitched much better than his season numbers indicate. Bank on him to have a nice rebound performance and to score a victory against the team that lit him up just six days ago. Florida has won six of the L/7 against Houston. Look for that streak to continue tonight…

Rose’s Recommendation: 2* Florida Marlins -115 (Nolasco)
(Rating Scale: 1* – 5*)