Free MLB Pick: Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres: August 18th 2009

Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres
Free MLB Pick: Under 8 Runs
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The San Diego Padres took the series opener from the Chicago Cubs here at Petco Park last night 4-1 on a walk-off grand slam, and we are looking for a similarly low scoring affair tonight.

Ryan Dempster has pitched better on the road than he has at home for the Cubs this year, and he deserves a better fate than his 2-4 record away from home, given his nice 3.65 road ERA. He should have success tonight vs. a San Diego lineup that is batting a pathetic .218 at home this season while averaging just 3.51 runs per game. Dempster has dominated the Padres recently, allowing a grand total of two runs and 17 hits in 27.1 innings in his last four starts against them.

Unfortunately, the Cubs are struggling offensively themselves, especially on the road where they are averaging just 3.93 runs per game with a modest .242 team batting average. This should make things easier for young Cesar Carrillo, who did not get out of the third inning in his Major League debut at Milwaukee last week. He should also appreciate the spacious dimensions here in his first career start in San Diego.

All games in this stadium have averaged a combined 7.74 runs this year, and given how great Dempster has been vs. the Padres and the expected improvement by Carrillo vs. a struggling Cubs offense, we do not see this game exceeding seven runs.

MLB Free Pick: Cubs, Padres Under 8 (-110)