College Football Weekly Projections: Week 2, OSU Vs. USC and More!

WhatIfSports.com will preview a week of the college football season each day for 15 days, including projected scores from 10,000 simulations for all FBS games and updated standings as of that week. Once we have reached the end of the season, we will present our projected bowl match-ups with results.

Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date and as accurate as possible as of August 1, 2009. A schedule of our 2009 College Football Preview, including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

Also, see below for details on how you can run your own college football program with Gridiron Dynasty.

For more information on how we generate the results and the definitions of Absolute and Expected Records, click here.

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Each regular season FBS game is simulated 10,000 times. The Absolute Record is simply the total number of games in which a team is favored.

The Expected Record, the more accurate approach, is the sum of the team's win probabilities from each game. The Expected Record accounts for the fact that some wins are less certain than others (a 50.1% win is different than a 99% win).

Since the favored team does not win every game (otherwise, why would we watch?), the likelihood of an upset is important to take into account. We may ultimately say that six teams are favored to win all of their games, but we don't expect any to do so. 

Also, since we are rounding, it is possible for a team to win a game more often, yet score the same or fewer points than the opponent on average. In those cases, for Absolute Records, we always take higher winning percentage.

We are not predicting a tie or a win by an underdog. This is another reason why the expected records are more accurate, as the teams are so evenly matched, the game could easily go either way.

The inputs to the simulations are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings from 2008. Once this step is complete, we make our modifications for 2009 based on returning starters (who, where and how many), expected progression of returning players in new roles, depth at each position, and incoming recruits and transfers.

Games for each week are ordered by the conference of the home team and then winning percentage of the home team, with the score reading the visitors first followed by the home team. If a team is listed as having a 95% chance of winning, that means that it won at 95% or more of the 10,000 simulations.

Every underdog has a chance to win. Along those lines, this may be relatively obvious for some examples (i.e. James Madison vs. Maryland), but non-FBS rosters and ratings are not maintained individually due to lack of data. In other words, right or wrong, all non-FBS teams are treated equally.

Week 2 Preview (9/12/09)

Game of the Week: #4 USC 31 (2 - 0) @ #9 Ohio State 14 (1 - 1)
Ohio State is a top ten team this season, but they are on the outside looking in at what appears to be a four-horse race for the national championship.

USC is one of those horses.

The Trojans return almost everyone from an offense that lit up Ohio State's defense in USC's 35-3 victory a year ago. The lone question is at quarterback, where there are currently three former Scout.com top three QB recruits competing for the job. With its own quarterback question figured out and less certainty on USC's defense, Ohio State should be able to put more points on the board this year, but it won't be enough.

USC wins in Columbus 90% of the time and by an average score of 31-14.

Matchup	Home Win%	Avg Score
Jacksonville State @ Florida State	95.0	5-48
James Madison @ Maryland	95.0	8-37
Marshall @ Virginia Tech	95.0	9-36
Murray State @ North Carolina State	95.0	9-34
Kent State @ Boston College	71.8	13-23
Clemson @ Georgia Tech	71.4	12-23
Stanford @ Wake Forest	44.5	21-20
TCU @ Virginia	5.0	28-7
Idaho State @ Oklahoma	95.0	5-65
Bowling Green @ Missouri	90.0	15-36
Houston @ Oklahoma State	88.0	34-49
Rice @ Texas Tech	87.7	20-39
Arkansas State @ Nebraska	81.4	18-32
Iowa @ Iowa State	5.0	39-11
Howard @ Rutgers	95.0	8-42
Southeast Missouri State @ Cincinnati	95.0	7-38
East Carolina @ West Virginia	90.7	9-28
North Carolina @ Connecticut	22.9	16-10
Illinois State @ Illinois	95.0	8-47
Syracuse @ Penn State	95.0	8-41
Eastern Michigan @ Northwestern	94.7	9-25
Fresno State @ Wisconsin	83.4	14-31
Central Michigan @ Michigan State	82.7	10-22
Air Force @ Minnesota	44.2	22-23
Western Michigan @ Indiana	14.6	29-17
Notre Dame @ Michigan	13.0	25-12
USC @ Ohio State	10.0	31-14
UCF @ Southern Miss	95.0	9-35
Southern Methodist @ UAB	76.7	18-31
Kansas @ UTEP	12.0	38-22
Brigham Young @ Tulane	5.0	40-12
Louisiana Tech @ Navy	58.5	18-23
Duke @ Army	23.3	19-12
South Florida @ Western Kentucky	5.0	41-8
New Hampshire @ Ball State	92.7	8-28
Morgan State @ Akron	87.7	11-28
Western Illinois @ Northern Illinois	84.4	9-24
Colorado @ Toledo	37.5	18-17
Pittsburgh @ Buffalo	5.0	27-8
Weber State @ Colorado State	94.0	9-31
Southern Utah @ San Diego State	83.7	11-24
Tulsa @ New Mexico	9.3	33-17
Oregon State @ UNLV	9.0	31-16
Texas @ Wyoming	5.0	56-7
Eastern Washington @ California	95.0	4-51
Northern Arizona @ Arizona	95.0	7-39
Purdue @ Oregon	95.0	9-35
Idaho @ Washington	92.0	9-28
Hawaii @ Washington State	24.3	22-13
Florida International @ Alabama	95.0	5-41
South Carolina @ Georgia	95.0	7-31
Troy @ Florida	95.0	7-61
Vanderbilt @ LSU	95.0	9-37
UCLA @ Tennessee	90.7	9-25
Mississippi State @ Auburn	52.8	13-16
Texas Southern @ Louisiana-Monroe	70.1	11-21
Kansas State @ Louisiana-Lafayette	59.8	16-22
Memphis @ Middle Tennessee	59.8	15-20
Ohio @ North Texas	23.3	23-14
Miami (OH) @ Boise State	95.0	6-48
Prairie View A&M @ New Mexico State	74.8	11-22
Utah @ San Jose State	5.0	30-7

Week 2 Standings

Conference	Team	Abs Record	Exp Record
Atlantic Coast	Boston College	2 - 0	2 - 0
Atlantic Coast	Duke	2 - 0	2 - 0
Atlantic Coast	Florida State	2 - 0	2 - 0
Atlantic Coast	Georgia Tech	2 - 0	2 - 0
Atlantic Coast	North Carolina State	2 - 0	2 - 0
Atlantic Coast	North Carolina	2 - 0	2 - 0
Atlantic Coast	Clemson	1 - 1	1 - 1
Atlantic Coast	Maryland	1 - 1	1 - 1
Atlantic Coast	Virginia Tech	1 - 1	1 - 1
Atlantic Coast	Virginia	1 - 1	1 - 1
Atlantic Coast	Wake Forest	0 - 2	1 - 1
Atlantic Coast	Miami (FL)	0 - 1	0 - 1
Big 12	Kansas	2 - 0	2 - 0
Big 12	Nebraska	2 - 0	2 - 0
Big 12	Oklahoma State	2 - 0	2 - 0
Big 12	Oklahoma	2 - 0	2 - 0
Big 12	Texas Tech	2 - 0	2 - 0
Big 12	Texas	2 - 0	2 - 0
Big 12	Baylor	1 - 0	1 - 0
Big 12	Colorado	1 - 1	1 - 1
Big 12	Iowa State	1 - 1	1 - 1
Big 12	Kansas State	1 - 1	1 - 1
Big 12	Missouri	1 - 1	1 - 1
Big 12	Texas A&M	0 - 1	0 - 1
Big East	Pittsburgh	2 - 0	2 - 0
Big East	Rutgers	2 - 0	2 - 0
Big East	South Florida	2 - 0	2 - 0
Big East	West Virginia	2 - 0	2 - 0
Big East	Louisville	1 - 0	1 - 0
Big East	Cincinnati	1 - 1	1 - 1
Big East	Connecticut	1 - 1	1 - 1
Big East	Syracuse	0 - 2	0 - 2
Big Ten	Illinois	2 - 0	2 - 0
Big Ten	Iowa	2 - 0	2 - 0
Big Ten	Michigan State	2 - 0	2 - 0
Big Ten	Northwestern	2 - 0	2 - 0
Big Ten	Penn State	2 - 0	2 - 0
Big Ten	Wisconsin	2 - 0	2 - 0
Big Ten	Indiana	1 - 1	1 - 1
Big Ten	Minnesota	1 - 1	1 - 1
Big Ten	Ohio State	1 - 1	1 - 1
Big Ten	Purdue	1 - 1	1 - 1
Big Ten	Michigan	0 - 2	1 - 1
Conference USA	Southern Miss	2 - 0	2 - 0
Conference USA	Tulsa	2 - 0	2 - 0
Conference USA	East Carolina	1 - 1	1 - 1
Conference USA	Houston	1 - 1	1 - 1
Conference USA	Marshall	1 - 1	1 - 1
Conference USA	Rice	1 - 1	1 - 1
Conference USA	Southern Methodist	1 - 1	1 - 1
Conference USA	UAB	1 - 1	1 - 1
Conference USA	UCF	1 - 1	1 - 1
Conference USA	UTEP	1 - 1	1 - 1
Conference USA	Memphis	0 - 2	0 - 2
Conference USA	Tulane	0 - 2	0 - 2
Independents (FBS)	Notre Dame	2 - 0	1 - 1
Independents (FBS)	Army	1 - 1	1 - 1
Independents (FBS)	Navy	1 - 1	1 - 1
Independents (FBS)	Western Kentucky	0 - 2	0 - 2
Mid-American	Ball State	2 - 0	2 - 0
Mid-American	Temple	1 - 0	1 - 0
Mid-American	Akron	1 - 1	1 - 1
Mid-American	Western Michigan	2 - 0	1 - 1
Mid-American	Kent State	1 - 1	1 - 1
Mid-American	Northern Illinois	1 - 1	1 - 1
Mid-American	Ohio	1 - 1	1 - 1
Mid-American	Toledo	0 - 2	1 - 1
Mid-American	Bowling Green	0 - 2	0 - 2
Mid-American	Buffalo	0 - 2	0 - 2
Mid-American	Central Michigan	0 - 2	0 - 2
Mid-American	Eastern Michigan	0 - 2	0 - 2
Mid-American	Miami (OH)	0 - 2	0 - 2
Mountain West	Air Force	2 - 0	2 - 0
Mountain West	Utah	2 - 0	2 - 0
Mountain West	TCU	1 - 0	1 - 0
Mountain West	Colorado State	2 - 0	1 - 1
Mountain West	Brigham Young	1 - 1	1 - 1
Mountain West	New Mexico	1 - 1	1 - 1
Mountain West	San Diego State	1 - 1	1 - 1
Mountain West	UNLV	1 - 1	1 - 1
Mountain West	Wyoming	1 - 1	1 - 1
Pacific-10	Arizona	2 - 0	2 - 0
Pacific-10	California	2 - 0	2 - 0
Pacific-10	Oregon State	2 - 0	2 - 0
Pacific-10	Stanford	2 - 0	2 - 0
Pacific-10	USC	2 - 0	2 - 0
Pacific-10	Arizona State	1 - 0	1 - 0
Pacific-10	Oregon	2 - 0	1 - 1
Pacific-10	UCLA	1 - 1	1 - 1
Pacific-10	Washington	1 - 1	1 - 1
Pacific-10	Washington State	0 - 2	0 - 2
Southeastern	Alabama	2 - 0	2 - 0
Southeastern	Florida	2 - 0	2 - 0
Southeastern	LSU	2 - 0	2 - 0
Southeastern	Tennessee	2 - 0	2 - 0
Southeastern	Arkansas	1 - 0	1 - 0
Southeastern	Kentucky	1 - 0	1 - 0
Southeastern	Mississippi	1 - 0	1 - 0
Southeastern	Auburn	1 - 1	1 - 1
Southeastern	Georgia	1 - 1	1 - 1
Southeastern	Mississippi State	1 - 1	1 - 1
Southeastern	Vanderbilt	1 - 1	1 - 1
Southeastern	South Carolina	0 - 2	0 - 2
Sun Belt	Louisiana-Lafayette	2 - 0	1 - 1
Sun Belt	Arkansas State	1 - 1	1 - 1
Sun Belt	Louisiana-Monroe	1 - 1	1 - 1
Sun Belt	Middle Tennessee	1 - 1	1 - 1
Sun Belt	Troy	1 - 1	1 - 1
Sun Belt	Florida Atlantic	0 - 1	0 - 1
Sun Belt	Florida International	0 - 1	0 - 1
Sun Belt	North Texas	0 - 2	0 - 2
Western Athletic	Hawaii	2 - 0	2 - 0
Western Athletic	New Mexico State	2 - 0	1 - 1
Western Athletic	Boise State	1 - 1	1 - 1
Western Athletic	Fresno State	1 - 1	1 - 1
Western Athletic	Louisiana Tech	1 - 1	1 - 1
Western Athletic	Idaho	0 - 2	0 - 2
Western Athletic	San Jose State	0 - 2	0 - 2
Western Athletic	Nevada	0 - 1	0 - 1
Western Athletic	Utah State	0 - 1	0 - 1

A schedule of our 2009 College Football Preview, including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

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Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at [e-mail]. Thanks!