Check Out Our Week 1 Projections For The 2009 College Football Season

Beginning with Week 1 today, WhatIfSports.com will preview a week of the college football season each day for 15 days, including projected scores from 10,000simulations for all FBS games and updated standings as of that week. Once we have reached the end of the season, we will present our projected bowl match-ups with results.

Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date and as accurate as possible as of August 1, 2009. A schedule of our 2009 College Football Preview, including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

Also, see below for details on how you can run your own college football program with Gridiron Dynasty.

For more information on how we generate the results and the definitions of Absolute and Expected Records, click here.

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Each regular season FBS game is simulated 10,000 times. The Absolute Record is simply the total number of games in which a team is favored. The Expected Record, the more accurate approach, is the sum of the team's win probabilities from each game. The Expected Record accounts for the fact that some wins are less certain than others (a 50.1% win is different than a 99% win). Since the favored team does not win every game (otherwise, why would we watch?), the likelihood of an upset is important to take into account. We may ultimately say that six teams are favored to win all of their games, but we don't expect any to do so.

Also, since we are rounding, it is possible for a team to win a game more often, yet score the same or fewer points than the opponent on average. In those cases, for Absolute Records, we always take higher winning percentage. We are not predicting a tie or a win by an underdog. This is another reason why the expected records are more accurate, as the teams are so evenly matched, the game could easily go either way.

The inputs to the simulations are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings from 2008. Once this step is complete, we make our modifications for 2009 based on returning starters (who, where and how many), expected progression of returning players in new roles, depth at each position and incoming recruits and transfers.

Games for each week are ordered by the conference of the home team and then winning percentage of the home team, with the score reading the visitors first followed by the home team. If a team is listed as having a 95% chance of winning, that means that it won at 95% or more of the 10,000 simulations. Every underdog has a chance to win. Along those lines, this may be relatively obvious for some examples (i.e. James Madison vs. Maryland), but non-FBS rosters and ratings are not maintained individually due to lack of data. In other words, right or wrong, all non-FBS teams are treated equally.

Today we preview Week 1 (9/5/09).

Game of the Week: #5 Alabama 20 (1 - 0) vs. #12 Virginia Tech 12 (0 - 1)
Two of our top 12 teamsopen the season in primetime at the Georgia Dome. With great defenses on both teams, do not expect much scoring. Alabama returns nine starters from a defense that only allowed 14.3 points-per-game in 2008, while Virginia Tech brings back seven starters from a defense that gave up just 16.7 points-per-game. The Crimson Tide is just a little bit better than the Hokies are at each position on defense. Virginia Tech sophomore running back Darren Evans may have been enough to neutralize that advantage, but he was just lost for the year due to a torn ACL. As even and as tough as these teams look, it may take a special teams or defensive touchdown to score enough points to decide victory. Alabama gets what it needs to pull off the victory, winning 79.4% of the 10,000 simulations and by an average score of 20-12.

Matchup	Home Win%	Avg Score
Citadel @ North Carolina	95.0	5-35
Jacksonville State @ Georgia Tech	95.0	5-50
Middle Tennessee @ Clemson	95.0	7-27
Richmond @ Duke	93.4	7-26
William & Mary @ Virginia	92.0	9-23
Northeastern @ Boston College	90.7	9-24
South Carolina @ North Carolina State	81.1	10-21
Miami (FL) @ Florida State	70.4	13-21
Baylor @ Wake Forest	23.9	26-18
Alabama @ Virginia Tech	20.6	20-12
Brigham Young @ Oklahoma	95.0	19-44
Florida Atlantic @ Nebraska	95.0	13-38
Louisiana-Monroe @ Texas	95.0	4-67
North Dakota @ Texas Tech	95.0	9-47
Northern Colorado @ Kansas	95.0	9-46
Massachusetts @ Kansas State	86.7	8-24
North Dakota State @ Iowa State	84.4	13-29
Georgia @ Oklahoma State	83.1	27-42
New Mexico @ Texas A&M	48.2	20-21
Colorado State @ Colorado	44.5	20-20
Indiana State @ Louisville	95.0	8-34
Liberty @ West Virginia	95.0	5-51
Wofford @ South Florida	95.0	8-39
Youngstown State @ Pittsburgh	95.0	6-37
Cincinnati @ Rutgers	64.5	21-29
Minnesota @ Syracuse	10.0	24-12
Akron @ Penn State	95.0	9-43
Montana State @ Michigan State	95.0	6-32
Navy @ Ohio State	95.0	8-32
Northern Illinois @ Wisconsin	95.0	11-40
Northern Iowa @ Iowa	95.0	5-44
Towson @ Northwestern	93.7	7-26
Eastern Kentucky @ Indiana	85.0	10-24
Missouri @ Illinois	72.1	26-34
Toledo @ Purdue	56.8	13-16
Western Michigan @ Michigan	41.5	21-20
Alcorn State @ Southern Miss	95.0	8-43
Appalachian State @ East Carolina	95.0	7-34
Northwestern State @ Houston	95.0	7-51
Southern Illinois @ Marshall	91.7	8-28
Samford @ UCF	82.4	8-19
Stephen F. Austin @ Southern Methodist	73.8	12-21
Buffalo @ UTEP	67.8	17-26
Rice @ UAB	46.8	26-28
Tulsa @ Tulane	7.0	36-17
Mississippi @ Memphis	5.0	48-10
Nevada @ Notre Dame	60.5	23-28
Villanova @ Temple	85.7	8-22
North Texas @ Ball State	84.1	12-28
Coastal Carolina @ Kent State	80.7	11-26
Army @ Eastern Michigan	38.5	15-14
Troy @ Bowling Green	36.5	22-18
Connecticut @ Ohio	24.3	18-12
Kentucky @ Miami (OH)	13.6	18-7
Nicholls State @ Air Force	95.0	6-40
Utah State @ Utah	95.0	6-36
Sacramento State @ UNLV	93.7	10-30
Weber State @ Wyoming	82.7	9-21
Idaho State @ Arizona State	95.0	8-32
Maryland @ California	95.0	8-33
Portland State @ Oregon State	95.0	7-44
San Jose State @ USC	95.0	4-55
Central Michigan @ Arizona	85.0	14-28
San Diego State @ UCLA	78.1	11-24
LSU @ Washington	5.0	48-8
Stanford @ Washington State	5.0	39-9
Charleston Southern @ Florida	95.0	3-74
Missouri State @ Arkansas	95.0	7-38
Western Carolina @ Vanderbilt	95.0	6-30
Western Kentucky @ Tennessee	95.0	4-40
Jackson State @ Mississippi State	88.7	7-24
Louisiana Tech @ Auburn	22.9	23-15
Mississippi Valley State @ Arkansas State	95.0	6-33
Southern University @ Louisiana-Lafayette	87.7	10-28
California-Davis @ Fresno State	95.0	6-32
Central Arkansas @ Hawaii	79.4	13-26
Idaho @ New Mexico State	74.1	11-22
Oregon @ Boise State	48.2	25-26

Week 1 Standings

Conference	Team	Abs Record	Exp Record
Atlantic Coast	Boston College	1 - 0	1 - 0
Atlantic Coast	Clemson	1 - 0	1 - 0
Atlantic Coast	Duke	1 - 0	1 - 0
Atlantic Coast	Florida State	1 - 0	1 - 0
Atlantic Coast	Georgia Tech	1 - 0	1 - 0
Atlantic Coast	North Carolina State	1 - 0	1 - 0
Atlantic Coast	North Carolina	1 - 0	1 - 0
Atlantic Coast	Virginia	1 - 0	1 - 0
Atlantic Coast	Maryland	0 - 1	0 - 1
Atlantic Coast	Miami (FL)	0 - 1	0 - 1
Atlantic Coast	Virginia Tech	0 - 1	0 - 1
Atlantic Coast	Wake Forest	0 - 1	0 - 1
Big 12	Baylor	1 - 0	1 - 0
Big 12	Iowa State	1 - 0	1 - 0
Big 12	Kansas State	1 - 0	1 - 0
Big 12	Kansas	1 - 0	1 - 0
Big 12	Nebraska	1 - 0	1 - 0
Big 12	Oklahoma State	1 - 0	1 - 0
Big 12	Oklahoma	1 - 0	1 - 0
Big 12	Texas Tech	1 - 0	1 - 0
Big 12	Texas	1 - 0	1 - 0
Big 12	Colorado	0 - 1	0 - 1
Big 12	Missouri	0 - 1	0 - 1
Big 12	Texas A&M	0 - 1	0 - 1
Big East	Connecticut	1 - 0	1 - 0
Big East	Louisville	1 - 0	1 - 0
Big East	Pittsburgh	1 - 0	1 - 0
Big East	Rutgers	1 - 0	1 - 0
Big East	South Florida	1 - 0	1 - 0
Big East	West Virginia	1 - 0	1 - 0
Big East	Cincinnati	0 - 1	0 - 1
Big East	Syracuse	0 - 1	0 - 1
Big Ten	Illinois	1 - 0	1 - 0
Big Ten	Indiana	1 - 0	1 - 0
Big Ten	Iowa	1 - 0	1 - 0
Big Ten	Michigan State	1 - 0	1 - 0
Big Ten	Minnesota	1 - 0	1 - 0
Big Ten	Northwestern	1 - 0	1 - 0
Big Ten	Ohio State	1 - 0	1 - 0
Big Ten	Penn State	1 - 0	1 - 0
Big Ten	Purdue	1 - 0	1 - 0
Big Ten	Wisconsin	1 - 0	1 - 0
Big Ten	Michigan	0 - 1	0 - 1
Conference USA	East Carolina	1 - 0	1 - 0
Conference USA	Houston	1 - 0	1 - 0
Conference USA	Marshall	1 - 0	1 - 0
Conference USA	Rice	1 - 0	1 - 0
Conference USA	Southern Methodist	1 - 0	1 - 0
Conference USA	Southern Miss	1 - 0	1 - 0
Conference USA	Tulsa	1 - 0	1 - 0
Conference USA	UCF	1 - 0	1 - 0
Conference USA	UTEP	1 - 0	1 - 0
Conference USA	Memphis	0 - 1	0 - 1
Conference USA	Tulane	0 - 1	0 - 1
Conference USA	UAB	0 - 1	0 - 1
Independents (FBS)	Army	1 - 0	1 - 0
Independents (FBS)	Notre Dame	1 - 0	1 - 0
Independents (FBS)	Navy	0 - 1	0 - 1
Independents (FBS)	Western Kentucky	0 - 1	0 - 1
Mid-American	Ball State	1 - 0	1 - 0
Mid-American	Kent State	1 - 0	1 - 0
Mid-American	Temple	1 - 0	1 - 0
Mid-American	Western Michigan	1 - 0	1 - 0
Mid-American	Akron	0 - 1	0 - 1
Mid-American	Bowling Green	0 - 1	0 - 1
Mid-American	Buffalo	0 - 1	0 - 1
Mid-American	Central Michigan	0 - 1	0 - 1
Mid-American	Eastern Michigan	0 - 1	0 - 1
Mid-American	Miami (OH)	0 - 1	0 - 1
Mid-American	Northern Illinois	0 - 1	0 - 1
Mid-American	Ohio	0 - 1	0 - 1
Mid-American	Toledo	0 - 1	0 - 1
Mountain West	Air Force	1 - 0	1 - 0
Mountain West	Colorado State	1 - 0	1 - 0
Mountain West	New Mexico	1 - 0	1 - 0
Mountain West	UNLV	1 - 0	1 - 0
Mountain West	Utah	1 - 0	1 - 0
Mountain West	Wyoming	1 - 0	1 - 0
Mountain West	Brigham Young	0 - 1	0 - 1
Mountain West	San Diego State	0 - 1	0 - 1
Pacific-10	Arizona State	1 - 0	1 - 0
Pacific-10	Arizona	1 - 0	1 - 0
Pacific-10	California	1 - 0	1 - 0
Pacific-10	Oregon State	1 - 0	1 - 0
Pacific-10	Oregon	1 - 0	1 - 0
Pacific-10	Stanford	1 - 0	1 - 0
Pacific-10	UCLA	1 - 0	1 - 0
Pacific-10	USC	1 - 0	1 - 0
Pacific-10	Washington State	0 - 1	0 - 1
Pacific-10	Washington	0 - 1	0 - 1
Southeastern	Alabama	1 - 0	1 - 0
Southeastern	Arkansas	1 - 0	1 - 0
Southeastern	Florida	1 - 0	1 - 0
Southeastern	Kentucky	1 - 0	1 - 0
Southeastern	LSU	1 - 0	1 - 0
Southeastern	Mississippi State	1 - 0	1 - 0
Southeastern	Mississippi	1 - 0	1 - 0
Southeastern	Tennessee	1 - 0	1 - 0
Southeastern	Vanderbilt	1 - 0	1 - 0
Southeastern	Auburn	0 - 1	0 - 1
Southeastern	Georgia	0 - 1	0 - 1
Southeastern	South Carolina	0 - 1	0 - 1
Sun Belt	Arkansas State	1 - 0	1 - 0
Sun Belt	Louisiana-Lafayette	1 - 0	1 - 0
Sun Belt	Troy	1 - 0	1 - 0
Sun Belt	Florida Atlantic	0 - 1	0 - 1
Sun Belt	Louisiana-Monroe	0 - 1	0 - 1
Sun Belt	Middle Tennessee	0 - 1	0 - 1
Sun Belt	North Texas	0 - 1	0 - 1
Western Athletic	Fresno State	1 - 0	1 - 0
Western Athletic	Hawaii	1 - 0	1 - 0
Western Athletic	Louisiana Tech	1 - 0	1 - 0
Western Athletic	New Mexico State	1 - 0	1 - 0
Western Athletic	Boise State	0 - 1	0 - 1
Western Athletic	Idaho	0 - 1	0 - 1
Western Athletic	Nevada	0 - 1	0 - 1
Western Athletic	San Jose State	0 - 1	0 - 1
Western Athletic	Utah State	0 - 1	0 - 1

A schedule of our 2009 College Football Preview, including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

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Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at [e-mail]. Thanks!