Super Bowl Odds: Why the Patriots Will Win and Cover the Spread

The New England Patriots are back in the Super Bowl for the sixth time during the Belichick-Brady era.

However, the Patriots have lost their last two Super Bowls, and they're 0-4 against the spread over their last four Super Bowl appearances. Can they win one more Lombardi Trophy with their Hall of Fame coach-quarterback combination?

The Pats have a few things going for them heading into Super Bowl XLIX, including an interesting trend that has seen a team making a return trip to the Super Bowl lose five straight.

The trend holds up at 0-5 straight up and against the spread when the returning team is an underdog, like the Seahawks are in this game so far.

The Patriots have already won 14 games this season, including 12 of their last 13 that actually mattered, going 9-4 against the spread. They are also 6-2 ATS against NFC foes.

They can throw up 30 points on just about any given Sunday, or Monday, or Thursday. So far in these playoffs the Pats have piled up 80 points in victories over Baltimore and Indianapolis.

New England—deflated balls or not—dominated the Colts in the AFC Championship Game two weeks ago, grabbing an early 14-0 lead, later scoring the last 31 points of the game.

The Patriots ran the ball for 177 yards, held the ball for almost 38 minutes and totally stymied Indy's short passing game, holding Andrew Luck to just 126 yards, with a pair of interceptions.

Just before that, New England spotted the Ravens the first two touchdowns of their divisional-round bout, and trailed again by two scores in the third quarter, but rallied back, scoring 21 of the last 24 points for the victory.

On the season, the Patriots ranked 11th in the league in total offense, 13th in total defense.  

Finally, the Seahawks probably shouldn't even be in the Super Bowl, after needing a minor miracle to beat Green Bay in the NFC Championship Game. The Pack totally outplayed Seattle for about the first 57 minutes of the game. The Seahawks had to resort to a fake field goal for its first score, needed a successful onside kick (botched by the Packers) to take a late lead and allowed Green Bay to drive for the game-tying field goal at the buzzer.

Then, they won the overtime coin toss and drove directly for a championship touchdown.

Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson was held in check almost all day, as was running back Marshawn Lynch, until breaking loose late.

Also, two key members of the vaunted Seahawks defense are banged up; cornerback Richard Sherman is dealing with a sore elbow, and safety Earl Thomas has a bad shoulder. Both are expected to play, but both are likely to be limited in effectiveness.

If the Patriots can coax Seattle into a performance similar to the one it put on for most of that NFC title game, they won't choke the victory away like the Packers did.

The Odds Shark computer is predicting the slightest of margins in a very high-scoring game.

Stats and odds courtesy of Odds Shark.