Stanley Cup Odds for All 30 NHL Teams After the 2015 All-Star Game
What chance does your team have of winning the Stanley Cup this year?
We looked at every team in the league and assigned them a score based on their likelihood of making the postseason, the difficulty of their path to the Stanley Cup and of course our assessment of their likelihood of winning four straight series against exceptional opponents.
Read on for the complete list.
Statistics and news courtesy of NHL.com.
30-26: Buffalo Sabres-New Jersey Devils
30. Buffalo Sabres (5,000-to-1): The Sabres have more than two losses for each win they've recorded on the season. If they somehow reverse that trend over the year's final 35 games, they'll still miss the playoffs.
29. Edmonton Oilers (3,500-to-1): The Oilers aren't quite as bad as the Sabres; their goal differential is nearly 30 better than the NHL's worst team. Even so, there's no chance they contend for the Stanley Cup given the 20-point chasm separating them from the final playoff spot.
28. Arizona Coyotes (2,000-to-1): Arizona and Edmonton are pretty competitive in terms of goal differential, though the Coyotes have a slight standings advantage. The Coyotes also just traded their only functioning goaltender.
27. Carolina Hurricanes (2,000-to-1): Carolina still has its goaltender, but the Hurricanes are also 20 points out. Even with games in hand, it's over, and it's been over for a long while already.
26. New Jersey Devils (1,000-to-1): New Jersey is 15 points out, and 35 games simply isn't enough time to make up that kind of deficit. The rigors of a long NHL season may make an old Devils team even worse in the second half anyway.
25-21: Philadelphia Flyers-Minnesota Wild
25. Philadelphia Flyers (500-to-1): The Flyers are in tough shape; they're 12 points out, but with a really hot run to end the year (say 23-6-5 or similar) they just might make the playoffs. As they're 10 games under 0.500 at the moment it seems unlikely.
24. Toronto Maple Leafs (500-to-1): The Maple Leafs are two points up on Philadelphia, but they're also in free fall. Toronto has lost six straight games and is 1-7-0 overall since the firing of Randy Carlyle.
23. Columbus Blue Jackets (300-to-1): Columbus showed an ability to get hot in December and has played three fewer games than Boston, currently in the final wild-card slot. Even so, 14 points is a lot to make up.
22. Ottawa Senators (200-to-1): The Senators are 10 points out and aren't showing any more life under Dave Cameron (8-7-4) than they did under Paul MacLean (11-11-5).
21. Minnesota Wild (150-to-1): The Wild are 2-1-1 since trading for Devan Dubnyk, but Dubnyk himself has struggled in his last two games. The team has talent but needs to overcome a seven-point deficit just to make the postseason.
20. Colorado Avalanche
Stanley Cup Odds: 100-to-1
Road to the Playoffs: Colorado is presently three points back of the Calgary Flames, the team that holds the final wild-card spot, and the Flames have played one fewer game. They'll need to make that up soon, as they close out the regular season with a six-game stretch against San Jose, Anaheim, Los Angeles, Nashville, Winnipeg and Chicago.
Road to the Cup: If the Avs can squeak in, they'll be in the final playoff berth, meaning a first-round series against the best team in the conference (Anaheim at the moment). As L.A. proved a few years ago, it can be done, but it's awfully tough.
19. Florida Panthers
Stanley Cup Odds: 100-to-1
Road to the Playoffs: Florida's biggest asset at this point is games in hand. The Panthers are seven points back of the final playoff spot in the East, but have also played four fewer games than the Bruins.
Road to the Cup: The Bruins are the only team Florida has a realistic chance of catching, and only because of those four games in hand. That means that if the Panthers can make it into the playoffs they'll start off facing the best team in the East (Tampa Bay at the moment) in the first round.
18. Calgary Flames
Stanley Cup Odds: 75-to-1
Road to the Playoffs: The Flames currently hold the final playoff spot in the West but will need to hold off Los Angeles, Colorado and Dallas all of whom are within four points. Calgary is however just two and three points back of Vancouver and San Jose (respectively), and home ice in the first round isn't wildly implausible.
Road to the Cup: Unless Calgary can catch San Jose/Vancouver, and assuming that Anaheim ends up as the top team in the West, the Flames are going to get bumped into the Central for the playoffs, likely meaning the first two rounds will come against two of Nashville, St. Louis and Chicago.
17. Dallas Stars
Stanley Cup Odds: 60-to-1
Road to the Playoffs: The Stars are 12-6-2 in their last 20 games after a brutal 9-12-5 run. They're making up ground in a hurry but are four points back of the final playoff spot and need to pass Colorado, L.A. and then (probably) Calgary just to squeak in. They're a good team, but competition for that final playoff spot is brutal.
Road to the Cup: If Anaheim hangs on to the top spot in the West, Dallas would be competing in the Central Division in the playoffs. That means a first- and second-round dates with two of Nashville, St. Louis and Chicago. Fun, that.
16. San Jose Sharks
Stanley Cup Odds: 45-to-1
Road to the Playoffs: San Jose currently sits second in the Pacific Division, but the playoffs aren't guaranteed. They're one point up on Vancouver, which has three games in hand. They're three and four points up on Calgary and Los Angeles, respectively, both of which also have a game in hand. The Sharks are the only team currently in a playoff spot in the West with a negative goal differential; a slide is entirely possible.
Road to the Cup: The Pacific Division is pretty soft. Three of the four divisions in the NHL have at least three teams with a goal differential better than plus-15 (the Metropolitan and Central Divisions have four clubs, while the Pacific has none. So the first two rounds, in theory, shouldn't be as tough here as elsewhere.
15. Vancouver Canucks
Stanley Cup Odds: 45-to-1
Road to the Playoffs: Remember when Vancouver was neck-and-neck with the Ducks for first in the West after a great 18-7-1 start? Well, the team has gone 8-9-2 since, and if it can't pull out of its current swan dive runs a real risk of missing the playoffs. Currently third in the Pacific, Vancouver would need to be passed by one of Los Angeles or Calgary and then by only one other team to miss the postseason. The good news is the Canucks have games in hand and are very much in control of their fate.
Road to the Cup: It's really not too bad. Right now, the Canucks are looking at home ice in the first round and a match against San Jose, followed by a series against the winner of Anaheim vs. the wild card. There's no easy road to the Stanley Cup, but that's not bad for a playoff bubble team.
14. Los Angeles Kings
Stanley Cup Odds: 35-to-1
Road to the Playoffs: It's weird to put the defending champions so low, but the Kings are seven games under 0.500 on the season and are presently on the outside looking in. A finish as high as second in the Pacific isn't out of the question (they're four points back of San Jose), but neither is missing the playoffs entirely.
Road to the Cup: If the Kings put a strong second half together, and especially if they can manage home ice in the first round in the Pacific their chances improve dramatically. This is a proven team that can do some serious damage, a team that's had its way with its division rivals more often than not.
13. Boston Bruins
Stanley Cup Odds: 30-to-1
Road to the Playoffs: Given the seven-point gap between Boston and Florida, it's a reasonably sure thing that the Bruins make the playoffs. Only the Panthers' four games in hand and the fact that Bruins have a road-heavy schedule in the second half inject an element of doubt.
Road to the Cup: It's impossible at this point to predict Boston's road to the Cup given how competitive things are at the top in the East, but there's no easy path. The Met is sometimes presented as a bit of a punchline, but the top three teams right now are the always dangerous Penguins, last year's finalist Rangers and the resurgent Islanders.
The Atlantic features a Montreal team that matches well against the Bruins, the war-hardened Red Wings and the up-and-coming Lightning. All we know for sure is that the Bruins aren't likely to have home ice for any of those matches.
12. Washington Capitals
Stanley Cup Odds: 25-to-1
Road to the Playoffs: Technically tied with Boston, the Capitals have two games in hand on the Bruins and would need to fall behind both that club and the Florida Panthers (seven points back). Their recent run has them reasonably assured of a playoff berth.
Road to the Cup: Things get easier for the Caps if they can sneak in front of the Rangers and avoid a division winner off the bat. New York has a one-point lead and two games in hand and is on a tear of its own, so that's going to be tough to do.
11. Montreal Canadiens
Stanley Cup Odds: 25-to-1
Road to the Playoffs: The Canadiens are 11 points up on Florida and have played only one game more than the Panthers, and given that they'd also need to be passed by the Bruins are pretty safe. Barring an epic collapse, they've made it.
Road to the Cup: Theoretically Montreal could pass both Tampa Bay and Detroit to win the Atlantic (the Habs are three points back of the division-leading Lightning and have three games in hand), but given their somewhat modest underlying numbers I like them to finish where they are now. If that's right, they'll likely need to beat Lightning and Red Wings teams that have the advantage of home ice just to make it to the Conference Final. It's tough sledding.
10. New York Rangers
Stanley Cup Odds: 20-to-1
Road to the Playoffs: The Rangers have been awfully impressive lately, winning 16 of their last 19 games. That has propelled the team into third in the Met and given it an eight-point lead on Florida. Even if New York coasts the rest of the way it should make the playoffs.
Road to the Cup: The Rangers are within striking distance of Pittsburgh (the Penguins have a two point lead but have played two more games), and if they can pass the Pens than they'll start the playoffs with home ice. Either way, they're likely to start the playoffs against the Penguins, and if they win that matchup things aren't going to get any easier.
9. Winnipeg Jets
Stanley Cup Odds: 18-to-1
Road to the Playoffs: Winnipeg is technically in a wild-card spot, but that's owing entirely to the ridiculous strength of the Central. The Jets have an eight-point lead on Los Angeles, and if they were going to crash it probably would have happened when their defence was devastated by injury.
Road to the Cup: The Jets have a chance of catching Chicago and St. Louis, and even if they don't, Anaheim's current position in the standings means that Winnipeg is likely to start the playoffs on the road against one of the three beasts of the Central Division.
8. Detroit Red Wings
Stanley Cup Odds: 16-to-1
Road to the Playoffs: Detroit's 13-point lead on Florida makes it practically guaranteed a playoff spot, though its hold on home ice in the first round isn't nearly so stable.
Road to the Cup: Right now Detroit and Montreal are on course for a first-round showdown, with home ice very much up for grabs. Assuming the Red Wings can sneak past the Habs, they'll likely face the Lightning and then the winner of the Met. Can they win all those series? Sure. But even if we assume Detroit is on even footing with those opponents (and as they're the road team they have a certain disadvantage) there's precious little margin for error.
7. New York Islanders
Stanley Cup Odds: 15-to-1
Road to the Playoffs: The Islanders are reasonably secure at the top of the Metropolitan Division at the moment, with a three-point lead on Pittsburgh. They're miles above the playoff bubble.
Road to the Cup: A division lead doesn't guarantee the Isles an easy first-round series, but it beats the alternative. Still, the wild-card teams are going to be tough; neither Boston nor Washington is exactly an easy draw. Things will get much harder in the second round, where the Islanders look set to face either the other team from New York or Sidney Crosby's Penguins.
6. Anaheim Ducks
Stanley Cup Odds: 15-to-1
Road to the Playoffs: Anaheim is 12 points up on the second-place team in the Pacific; they don't have to worry too much about making the playoffs.
Road to the Cup: As the situation stands today, things could be (relatively) easy, with the Ducks taking on the worst playoff team in the West in the first round and then facing the less-than-formidable survivor of San Jose/Vancouver. On the other hand, they could also draw the Kings out of the gate, and whatever that team's record this year nobody's going to be eager to face them in Round 1.
5. Nashville Predators
Stanley Cup Odds: 14-to-1
Road to the Playoffs: Nashville's 13 point lead (and two games in hand) on Los Angeles lends it significant security from worries of just making the postseason.
Road to the Cup: It's critical that the Predators hang on to their three-point lead on Chicago and St. Louis—those teams are monsters, and forcing them to face each other in the first round makes things much easier for everyone. A strong enough run late would also allow the Preds to duck a first-round matchup with Winnipeg.
4. St. Louis Blues
Stanley Cup Odds: 12-to-1
Road to the Playoffs: The Blues are 10 points up on Los Angeles and a playoff berth is all but assured.
Road to the Cup: There's still time, but it looks right now like the Blues will once again need to beat Chicago in the first round. Assuming Nashville wins its first round matchup, the Blues would then face the Predators, then the winner of the Pacific and then the best team in the East.
3. Pittsburgh Penguins
Stanley Cup Odds: 12-to-1
Road to the Playoffs: With 10 points on the Panthers, Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and company don't need to fret about a playoff spot.
Road to the Cup: At the moment it appears that a successful run for the Penguins would take them them through both New York teams (both excellent clubs) before they met the winner of the Atlantic and then the winner of the West.
2. Chicago Blackhawks
Stanley Cup Odds: 10-to-1
Road to the Playoffs: Chicago is 10 points up on Los Angeles, despite only being two points out of a wild-card spot. Playoff positioning, not playoff survival, is what is at stake the rest of the way.
Road to the Cup: Chicago may have the best goal differential in the league and a long record of beating elite teams in seven-game series, but it's going to be brutally tough to come out of the Central this year, particularly since the Blackhawks need to improve if they're to have home ice.
1. Tampa Bay Lightning
Stanley Cup Odds: 10-to-1
Road to the Playoffs: A 14-point edge on Florida makes the playoffs pretty much a lock for Tampa Bay. Much less secure is the team's hold on the top spot in the Atlantic.
Road to the Cup: The Lightning are four points out of first in the NHL, so with a strong finish they could guarantee themselves home ice all the way to the Final. There's not much gap between the Lightning and Montreal/Detroit, so delaying that matchup to the second round can't hurt, either.