Super Bowl 2015: MVP Prop Odds and Prediction for Patriots vs. Seahawks

Veteran bettors will experience a bit of deja vu on the way to the 2015 Super Bowl thanks to the MVP odds.

About a decade ago, a defender by the name of Dexter Jackson led his Tampa Bay Buccaneers to an ugly Super Bowl triumph and took home the MVP award.

Last year's blowout in which the Seattle Seahawks took down the Denver Broncos featured linebacker Malcolm Smith as the MVP winner, the first defender since Jackson to hoist the hardware.

This places bettors in a bind as the Seahawks prepare to clash with the New England Patriots. Las Vegas' initial offerings, at the very least, give them plenty of options.

Super Bowl Info and Odds

Date	Matchup	Time (ET)	TV	Spread	O/U	Prediction
Sunday, Feb. 1	New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks	6:30 p.m.	NBC	NE -1.5	48	27-24 SEA

Betting info via Odds Shark as of Thursday, Jan. 22 at 10 a.m. ET.

2015 Super Bowl MVP Odds

Player	Odds
Tom Brady	8-5
Russell Wilson	7-2
Marshawn Lynch	4-1
Rob Gronkowski	9-1
LeGarrette Blount	12-1
Julian Edelman	25-1
Darrelle Revis	33-1
Doug Baldwin	33-1
Kam Chancellor	33-1
Richard Sherman	33-1
Earl Thomas	40-1
Bobby Wagner	50-1
Jamie Collins	50-1
Jermaine Kearse	50-1
Brandon LaFell	66-1
Shane Vereen	66-1
Danny Amendola	75-1
K.J. Wright	75-1
Byron Maxwell	100-1
Devin McCourty	100-1
Dont'a Hightower	100-1
Luke Willson	100-1
Malcolm Smith	100-1
Patrick Chung	100-1
Rob Ninkovich	100-1
Stephen Gostkowski	100-1
Steven Hauschka	100-1
Field	25-1

MVP Odds via Odds Shark as of Thursday, Jan. 22 at 10 a.m. ET.

The Too-Obvious Choice: Tom Brady 

Sometimes a line is just too obvious.

Tom Brady happens to be the guy who won the MVP award the season after Jackson's triumph, beginning a 10-year stretch of offensive players ruling in this regard.

If that does not make it seem like fate, then perhaps Brady's recent performances—including an epic showing to survive the Baltimore Ravens in the divisional round—will lend even more credibility to the notion:

OPP	CMP	ATT	YDS	CMP%	TD	INT
vs. BAL	33	50	367	66.0	3	1
vs. IND	23	35	226	65.7	3	1

Brady has every right to be confident as he heads into the showdown with the Seahawks:

While his disastrous start to the season is an afterthought, Seattle does tout a secondary that can limit his production and force pressure on those around him.

One week ago, Richard Sherman and the Seahawks held Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers to one touchdown while picking him off twice in the NFC Championship Game. Truthfully, the Packers have more deep threats to account for on each down than the Patriots, too.

This feels similar to last year's Super Bowl, when Seattle stalled an offense with a host of weapons. It is a minimal payout anyway, so avoid Brady.

Underdog to Bet: Doug Baldwin

Steve Dykes/Getty Images

With all due respect to K.J. Wright and other defenders, it seems the award will go to an offensive weapon this time out. 

Look at Doug Baldwin, perhaps the most underrated player who will take the field at the Super Bowl.

Baldwin is Seattle's No. 1 wideout with 66 catches for 825 yards and three touchdowns, but he has an outstanding payout here as the Seahawks are classified as a run-first team.

As CBS Sports' Jason A. Churchill points out though, Baldwin continues to be one of the most important facets of the Seahawks attack when his team needs him most:

Now, the Patriots do come equipped with a solid pass defense, but as Bleacher Report's Cian Fahey points out, a top-flight corner such as Darrelle Revis may not spend his entire day shadowing Baldwin:

"

More difficult to project than it initially seems. Doug Baldwin is most important guy to stop RT @GunnerStaal How will NE deploy Revis?

— Cian Fahey (@Cianaf) January 22, 2015"

If the Patriots sell out to stop Marshawn Lynch and Russell Wilson on the ground, the latter will look for Baldwin deep most of the day.

It helps that Baldwin can also make a game-changing play on special teams. If there is a name to bet who pays out in a decent manner, it would be Baldwin.

Prediction

What, a guy coming off a four-interception performance cannot win Super Bowl MVP? 

Wilson seems a lock to take home the award. It is one thing for a player to enter the big game after the worst performance of his career, but it is another to turn things around at the very last second and propel a team to the promised land.

Wilson did just that and has been the subject of lofty praise since, including a note from Patriots head coach Bill Belichick, per ESPN's Adam Schefter:

While often difficult to measure, the clutch factor Wilson put on display in the NFC Championship Game cannot be understated.

In fact, Football Outsiders' Scott Kacsmar points out that Wilson compares well to another notable name who will be on the field when the Lombardi Trophy is up for grabs:

Backed by Lynch, it is easy to see Wilson exploiting a 17th-ranked Patriots pass defense and also generating a few big plays with his feet.

If Wilson can come anywhere near his late-game magic from a weekend ago, he is a lock to take home the individual hardware after missing out last year.

Above anyone else, bank on Wilson.

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus.