College Football Season Is Almost Here! Find Out Where Your Team Stands

Jake WestrichSenior Writer IAugust 10, 2009

WhatIfSports.com simulated every possible match-up in the Division I Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) 100 times, and used the winning percentages from those 700,000+ games to evaluate all teams to come up with the best possible ranking of how every team compares to every other team.

The inputs to the simulations are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that first considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings from 2008 and then makes modifications for 2009 based on returning starters (who, where and how many), expected progression of returning players in new roles, depth at each position and incoming recruits and transfers.

Check back Aug. 17 when we begin unveiling projected scores for every FBS game as part of our 2009 College Football Preview. The preview will also include conference standings, projected bowl match-ups, updated power rankings and BCS results.

Teams Ranked by Winning Percentage
(everyone plays everyone 100 times)

 TeamChangeWin PctPS/GPA/G
1.Florida Gators-99.556.15.4
2.Texas Longhorns-97.950.68.0
3.Oklahoma Sooners-97.749.910.3
4.USC Trojans-96.449.18.0
5.Alabama Crimson Tide-93.536.46.7
6.Oklahoma State Cowboys-92.548.517.4
7.LSU Tigers-91.540.312.4
8.Mississippi Rebels-89.640.913.6
9.Ohio State Buckeyes-
10.California Golden Bears-86.433.510.7
11.West Virginia Mountaineers-84.733.711.9
12.Virginia Tech Hokies-84.231.510.9
13.Penn State Nittany Lions-
14.Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets-82.233.713.5
15.Georgia Bulldogs-
16.Iowa Hawkeyes-
17.Illinois Fighting Illini-79.833.617.7
18.Florida State Seminoles-78.430.514.1
19.TCU Horned Frogs-77.927.812.5
20.Utah Utes-76.927.513.8
 TeamChangeWin PctPS/GPA/G
21.Houston Cougars-76.836.821.8
22.Oregon Ducks-76.631.216.4
23.Boise State Broncos-76.330.717.4
24.Brigham Young Cougars-74.431.819.2
25.Kansas Jayhawks-73.932.720.2
26.Notre Dame Fighting Irish-72.326.315.4
27.Baylor Bears-72.030.919.3
28.Texas Tech Red Raiders-71.532.021.2
29.North Carolina Tar Heels-
30.Clemson Tigers-70.522.413.0
31.Rutgers Scarlet Knights-69.927.317.6
32.Nebraska Cornhuskers-69.929.619.1
33.Oregon State Beavers-69.427.618.2
34.Tennessee Volunteers-69.222.713.7
35.Arizona Wildcats-
36.Southern Miss Golden Eagles-68.928.218.7
37.Missouri Tigers-68.930.121.1
38.South Florida Bulls-68.825.916.6
39.Nevada Wolf Pack-68.631.522.0
40.Pittsburgh Panthers-68.423.215.2
 TeamChangeWin PctPS/GPA/G
41.Miami (FL) Hurricanes-66.723.014.3
42.Wisconsin Badgers-65.627.319.9
43.Air Force Falcons-64.627.320.7
44.East Carolina Pirates-63.521.016.3
45.Michigan State Spartans-
46.Tulsa Golden Hurricane-61.629.023.8
47.Minnesota Golden Gophers-59.421.818.4
48.Cincinnati Bearcats-59.126.322.1
49.Arkansas Razorbacks-57.124.922.3
50.Stanford Cardinal-57.025.622.2
51.North Carolina State Wolfpack-55.321.520.2
52.Maryland Terrapins-
53.Navy Midshipmen-54.322.921.3
54.Vanderbilt Commodores-51.616.316.9
55.Wake Forest Demon Deacons-
56.Western Michigan Broncos-50.423.724.0
57.Connecticut Huskies-49.816.017.5
58.Louisiana Tech Bulldogs-49.720.821.2
59.Arkansas State Red Wolves-49.620.921.9
60.Arizona State Sun Devils-49.518.719.2
 TeamChangeWin PctPS/GPA/G
61.Central Michigan Chippewas-49.420.622.5
62.Troy Trojans-48.620.522.1
63.Michigan Wolverines-46.616.920.2
64.Northwestern Wildcats-45.514.818.3
65.Louisville Cardinals-
66.Fresno State Bulldogs-42.718.022.8
67.Rice Owls-41.721.026.6
68.South Carolina Gamecocks-40.613.819.5
69.Colorado State Rams-39.519.125.9
70.UTEP Miners-37.721.428.5
71.UCLA Bruins-37.614.321.8
72.UNLV Rebels-36.919.026.4
73.Florida International Golden Panthers-36.515.623.2
74.Duke Blue Devils-36.316.124.1
75.Bowling Green Falcons-36.116.825.3
76.Boston College Eagles-35.813.621.7
77.Marshall Thundering Herd-34.515.825.1
78.UAB Blazers-33.420.230.1
79.Mississippi State Bulldogs-33.013.623.1
80.Ohio Bobcats-32.714.924.5
 TeamChangeWin PctPS/GPA/G
81.Auburn Tigers-32.713.424.2
82.Ball State Cardinals-31.916.226.4
83.Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders-31.113.424.3
84.Virginia Cavaliers-31.112.522.9
85.Colorado Buffaloes-30.914.325.1
86.Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns-30.916.127.6
87.Akron Zips-28.317.230.0
88.Memphis Tigers-
89.New Mexico Lobos-28.014.727.0
90.Purdue Boilermakers-27.710.522.7
91.Florida Atlantic Owls-27.216.528.8
92.Toledo Rockets-
93.San Jose State Spartans-26.610.923.6
94.Kentucky Wildcats-26.510.122.8
95.Utah State Aggies-26.214.628.3
96.Kansas State Wildcats-26.112.526.2
97.Washington Huskies-25.513.428.1
98.Iowa State Cyclones-
99.Buffalo Bulls-
100.Kent State Golden Flashes-
 TeamChangeWin PctPS/GPA/G
101.Temple Owls-24.311.925.6
102.Syracuse Orange-24.112.327.2
103.Wyoming Cowboys-23.910.824.9
104.Hawaii Warriors-23.615.831.3
105.Northern Illinois Huskies-23.313.428.8
106.Texas A&M Aggies-23.314.730.0
107.Indiana Hoosiers-23.112.627.9
108.San Diego State Aztecs-21.613.629.4
109.UCF Knights-20.69.625.8
110.Southern Methodist Mustangs-18.812.731.0
111.Tulane Green Wave-18.311.931.1
112.Army Black Knights-
113.Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks-16.410.831.7
114.New Mexico State Aggies-16.410.530.9
115.Eastern Michigan Eagles-13.09.531.7
116.North Texas Mean Green-
117.Idaho Vandals-8.07.736.2
118.Washington State Cougars-7.16.433.6
119.Western Kentucky Hilltoppers-4.35.535.8
120.Miami (OH) RedHawks-

Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com. Thanks!


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