Free MLB Picks: Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: August 10, 2009

Free MLB Picks: Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals u8.5 (100)
Mon August 10 2009 8:15 p.m. ET
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Kyle Lohse of the St. Louis Cardinals and Johnny Cueto of the Cincinnati Reds may have just mediocre overall numbers, but their home/away splits suggest a rather low scoring game here at Busch Stadium tonight.

Lohse is just 4-7 with a 4.56 ERA overall, but while he is winless on the road, he had a winning 4-3 record with an excellent 2.98 ERA and an outstanding 1.06 WHIP in this ballpark. In fact, he has allowed a grand total of two earned runs and just 13 hits in his last three starts here, and prior to getting hit hard by the New York Mets on the road in his last start, Lohse had allowed three runs or less in three straight starts.

Now Cueto is 8-9 with a 4.23 ERA overall, but he has been a much better pitcher on the road, where he is 6-5 with a 3.95 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Furthermore, he has been absolutely dominant in two starts against the Cardinals this season, first allowing one run on just five hits in seven innings back in Cincinnati and then allowing one run on seven hits in 6.1 innings here in this stadium.

Finally, the under is 11-3-2. The last 16 times St. Louis has been favored and 8-2 the last 10 times Cincinnati has been an underdog, and we look for both of those trends to continue.

MLB Free Pick: Reds, Cardinals Under 8.5 (+100)