Top Seeds Showing Worrying Signs in Week 1 at the 2015 Australian Open
The “seed” is on the one hand a badge of honor, but it’s also a target.
The lower the number the bigger the target. Those lower-ranked players come in with no pressure. They’re supposed to lose and that alleviates all kinds of pressure. The higher seeds are supposed to win, and that comes with a sense of pressure only the most elite of elite can withstand.
Because of this pressure and the way the players from the subterranean rank gun for them, we so often find the seeded players bend and, at times, break in the early rounds. Look no farther than Roger Federer. Federer didn't make this list, but he should have because he's gone, out in the third round to Andreas Seppi.
Just look at Day 1 on the women’s side of the draw. Eight of the 16 seeded women lost on that first day, none worse than the No. 5 seed Ana Ivanovic.
There are a few seeds who are not thriving in the early rounds, but they are surviving.
Let’s examine some of the early scares and what’s worrisome about the most vulnerable seeds remaining.
No. 26 Elina Svitolina
1 of 6
Early Round Scare
Needing tie breaks to get by Nicole Gibbs in Round 2.
What’s Her Outlook?
Elina Svitolina has only needed two sets to beat her opponents from the first two rounds. On the surface that doesn’t appear worrisome until you look closer at her matches.
While beating Yulia Putintseva, the No. 114 ranked player in the world, Svitolina had just four winners and won just six of 21 break points in the match. Svitolina won the second set 7-5 and again got by on very few winners and needed Putintseva’s three double faults to help.
Against Gibbs, ranked 96 in the world, Svitolina needed two tie breaks and went 8-6 in the deciding set. Svitolina had to attack more against Gibbs, hitting 25 winners to 43 unforced errors to go along with eight aces.
Now Svitolina worries will soon be over. She faces No. 1 seed Serena Williams in the third round and should be on a plane back to Kharkiv, Ukraine later this week.
No. 19 John Isner
2 of 6
Early Round Scare
Needing 43 games to beat No. 79 world ranked Andreas Haider-Maurer.
What’s His Outlook?
Reaching the third round in the Australian Open is a feat for Isner. His career best is a fourth-round appearance in 2010.
The scouting report on Isner is that he rides that powerful serve. In his first two matches, he has a combined 57 aces to just six double faults.
In his match against Haider-Maurer, Isner did what he was supposed to do: win his service games. Isner lost just one break (and won just two, just enough to advance).
Haider-Maurer, also a powerful server, matched Isner on first serves, but was trounced on second serves. Isner won 74 percent of second-serve points while his opponent won just 59 percent.
Isner’s outlook for this tournament isn’t too good though.
Sports Illustrated’s Courtney Nguyen wrote, "19th-seeded Isner took care of Andreas Haider-Maurer in four sets and will play No. 42 Gilles Muller in the third round. Muller upset No. 13 seed Roberto Bautista Agut. If Isner can get the win he'll likely face Djokovic in the fourth round."
Uh oh. Djokovic is a seeded player doing just fine, thank you very much.
No. 22 Karolina Pliskova
3 of 6
Early Round Scare
Needing three sets to beat No. 183 Oceane Dodin.
What’s Her Outlook?
Karolina Pliskova survived her three-set grind with Dodin because she was the cleaner player. Pliskova had just 16 unforced errors to Dodin’s 41. Much of the rest of the match was equal.
Dodin drove 40 winners past Pliskova while taking six of eight break points she had. When Pliskova gave her opponent an opening, Dodin took it and, it appears, Dodin was her own worst enemy in this match. She also had eight double faults to go with the 41 unforced errors.
What lies ahead for Pliskova, the No. 20 player in the world? She faces No. 10 seed and Steffi Graf doppelganger Ekaterina Makarova, a player who owns the 1-0 advantage head-to-head.
After that, it could be a smooth ride for Pliskova until a possible quarterfinal match against No. 3 seed Simona Halep.
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No. 4 Stan Wawrinka
4 of 6
Early Round Scare
Needed two tie breaks against World No. 194 Marius Copil in the second round.
What’s His Outlook?
Stan “The Man” Wawrinka is last year’s Australian Open champion, and as you might surmise, players are charging at him hard. Such was the case in the second round against Copil.
Matthew Trollope of the tournament's official website wrote, “Perhaps the reason for the close contest was the fact the two men were almost physical and stylistic carbon copies of one another. Powerful and barrel-chested, they pounded serves, unleashed big forehands and stroked aesthetically-pleasing one-handed backhands."
Wawrinka sweated out this match with just two aces, 36 winners and 39 unforced errors. The reigning champion said:
"It was quite tough match. Happy to get through, especially in three sets. Condition wasn't easy today. Quite hot. Really fast on the court.
And he was playing great. He was serving big, putting lots of pressure (on me). Wasn't playing my best tennis, but I'm happy the way I fight today and the way I did with the match.
"
Wawrinka handled the medium rallies best, winning more than half of those points. He’ll need to keep that up to defend his title. He’s got a date with Kei Nishikori in the quarterfinals in two matches.
No. 2 Maria Sharapova
5 of 6
Early Round Scare
Needing three sets and down two breaks in the third set against No. 150 Alexandra Panova.
What’s Her Outlook?
Maria Sharapova has a way of falling behind when she shouldn’t and pulling out matches on shear guts. Separated by 148 spots on the world rankings, Sharapova needed every bit of her talent to get by Panova in a 7-5 third set.
"She drills a pair of winners and, well, cue the sports cliches: Heart of a champion. Fortune favors the brave. She went for her shots. Tough as nails.
Sharapova wins, 6-1, 4-6, 7-5. She survives and advances. It was by the slightest of swatches. But she’s not on the margins. She’s still in the thick of the tournament.
"
Sharapova committed 51 unforced errors and appears to be on a crash course for a quarterfinal match against Canada’s native daughter and Australia’s sweetheart Eugenie Bouchard, especially after Sharapova wiped the court with Zarina Diyas 6-1, 6-1 in the third round.
In a bout of power on power, a Bouchard-Sharapova match could be one of the top five matches of the entire tournament on either side of the draw.
No. 3 Rafa Nadal
6 of 6
Early Round Scare
Needing five sets against American Tim Smyczek.
What’s His Outlook?
All eyes have been on the most famous wrist, knee and appendix-less player in the world, Rafa Nadal.
Nadal, a consummate grinder and scrambler, went five sets against 27-year-old Smyczek. The stat sheet looks even. There’s barely an edge, except Smyczek had 64 winners to Nadal’s 43 and 15 aces to Nadal’s three.
Nadal wasn’t himself. The match within the match was against his own body. He told the BBC:
"At the end of the first set, I started to feel my body was very bad, very tired, I was worrying like crazy. Then I was serving for the third and almost threw up. It was a terrible feeling.
I was close to not continuing because I felt that I was very dizzy.
I was suffering a lot. Too much. Obviously it's a very positive thing that finally I have the chance to win, but I hope to recover myself.
"
Had Nadal been granted Roger Federer’s draw, you may conclude that Nadal is one tournament away from pushing through to a final and winning. Nadal got a much needed breather by winning his third round match in straight sets.
Nadal will face No. 14 seed Kevin Anderson in the fourth round with a solid shot at facing Tomas Berdych, who hasn’t dropped a set yet, in the quarterfinals.
Stats were taken from AusOpen.com.
I hang out on Twitter @BrendanOMeara.
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