Australian Open 2015: Championship Odds & Predictions for Top Contenders
Despite being unseeded and ranked No. 41, Victoria Azarenka stands as much a chance of winning the 2015 Australian Open as No. 4 Petra Kvitova. At least that's what the oddsmakers think.
According to Odds Shark, Azarenka is a 10-1 favorite to win her third Australian Open title.
Meanwhile, John Isner, the top-ranked American male, is given little chance at all. Isner, ranked No. 20, is a 150-1 long shot. The oddsmakers have more faith in No. 338 Juan Martin del Potro (33-1), who missed 10 months with a wrist injury, than Isner.
Aside from those glaring anomalies, the oddsmakers' choices sync with tournament seeding. The top seeds are the favorites.
Top-ranked and top-seeded Serena Williams and Novak Djokovic are the odds on favorites. Williams is a 9-4 favorite. Oddsmakers put Djokovic at an even 1-1.
So many factors impact a player's chances of winning a Slam title. A bad draw can doom even the best. A few blockbuster opening-round matches threaten to do just that. Azarenka opens against 2013 semifinalist, Sloane Stephens. Caroline Wozniacki kicks off her quest for her first Slam against Taylor Townsend.
Even if Wozniacki makes it past the talented teen, she then faces the winner of the Stephens/Azarenka match.
Other potential bracket-busting first-rounders include Grigor Dimitrov taking on the unpredictable Dustin Brown and Rafael Nadal against the always tough Mikhail Youzhny.
With so many potential early-round pitfalls, predicting outcomes is difficult. The following are the odds and predictions for the top contenders at the 2015 Australian Open.
Andy Murray: 7-1
1 of 12
Seed: 6
Prediction: No more talk about rebounding from back surgery this time around. Andy Murray is back and looking to play his way back into the "Big Four" category.
Facing criticism about choosing Amelie Mauresmo as coach, a stubborn Murray is eager to silence the naysayers. He has the tough task of navigating a field stacked with talented up-and-coming players such as Dimitrov and Milos Raonic. Meanwhile, the old guard of Roger Federer, Djokovic and Nadal still lord over the courts.
Four times a runner-up at the Australian Open, Murray opens his title quest against a qualifier. He drew the unfortunate half of the draw with Federer and Nadal. He could face Dimitrov in the fourth round. If he does, Murray will best Dimitrov. He'll have a tougher time against Federer.
Murray's title hopes will fall short in the quarterfinals.
Caroline Wozniacki: 9-1
2 of 12
Seed: 8
Prediction: If tennis gods exist, Caroline Wozniacki must have ticked them off. Wozniacki drew the rockiest road imaginable in her quest for her first Grand Slam title.
She opens against Townsend. She then gets the winner of the Azarenka and Stephens match. She's in Serena Williams' quarter of the draw.
Still, Wozniacki's performance at the WTA Championships proved she could handle stiff competition. She defeated Maria Sharapova before falling to Williams in the semifinals.
Although Wozniacki has played Williams tough recently, the result remains the same: a loss. Expect a quarterfinal loss to Williams.
Kei Nishikori: 12-1
3 of 12
Seed: 5
Prediction: Kei Nishikori's game is tailor-made for hard courts. He is quick, fast and packs a punch from both wings. He attacks the ball early and catches opponents off guard.
The only major question mark is his game is his fitness and stamina. Prone to nagging injuries, Nishikori seems to wither in later rounds.
He surprised many by reaching the quarterfinals in Melbourne in 2012. He was younger and had a much-lower seed. With his new-found status as a top-five player, Nishikori is poised to make it at least to the quarterfinals. A final appearance wouldn't be a shocker.
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Ana Ivanovic: 18-1
4 of 12
Seed: 5
Prediction: Ana Ivanovic played brilliantly in her take-down of Serena Williams in the fourth round last year. However, she fell to Bouchard in the quarterfinals. That seems to be the hallmark of Ivanovic's Slam performances these days: solid play sprinkled with stunning upsets. Yet she always falls short of the finals.
That could change this year. Ivanovic has a favorable draw. Her quarter lacks a Slam winner. She opens with a qualifier and would face the winner of a match between two unseeded and unproven players.
Still, even with a clear path to the semifinals, Ivanovic will find some way to choke. Expect another quarterfinals exit.
Stan Wawrinka: 12-1
5 of 12
Seed: 4
Prediction: Stan Wawrinka enters the 2015 Australian Open in an unfamiliar place: as defending champion...
No longer the also-ran, Wawrinka must find a way to play with that chip on his shoulder as a front-runner.
He'll no doubt feel some comfort level. He's already proven his game is big enough to win it all. The question will be his mental state.
Like Ivanovic, Wawrinka got a nice draw. Wawrinka should coast through to the quarterfinals. However, he won't be a repeat champion.
Petra Kvitova: 10-1
6 of 12
Seed: 4
Prediction: Petra Kvitova won the Sydney International tournament a few days ago.
With a serve and forehand as big as she has, it's amazing that Kvitova has gone out in the first or second round in four of her six appearances in the Australian Open.
Kvitova has several big-hitters in her quarter, including Sam Stosur, Andrea Petkovic, Madison Keys, Venus Williams and Coco Vandeweghe. Any of those ladies could exploit Kvitova's lack of movement on hard courts.
With few points to defend and a recent title in the bag, Kvitova could play loose. A free-swinging Kvitova is dangerous. It's time for Kvitova to break free from her Aussie funk and make it to the quarterfinals.
Rafael Nadal: 10-1
7 of 12
Seed: 3
Prediction: The oddsmakers seem to have little respect for Rafael Nadal's 14 Grand Slam titles. That's probably because only one of those has come at the Australian Open.
Yet Nadal did reach the final last year. He faces a tricky first-round match against Youzhny. However, after Youzhny, there is no real threat to Nadal until a possible quarterfinal matchup against Tomas Berdych.
Nothing in Berdych's recent play indicates he is ready to upend even an ailing-knee Nadal.
Nadal will reach the semifinals. His run ends there.
Simona Halep: 7-1
8 of 12
Seed: 3
Prediction: Simona Halep began 2015 in a similar way to 2014, playing the smaller tournament, away from the big names. With the luck of the draw, Halep should sail through to the quarterfinals.
A potential road block is Australian Jarmila Gajdosova in the second round. Gajdosova has never advanced beyond the first round at the Australian Open. However, she enters the tournament after an impressive run in Sydney.
She defeated Andrea Petkovic, last year's Aussie Open runner-up Dominika Cibulkova and lost a close three-setter to Kvitova. A pro-Australian crowd could rattle Halep, who is prone to mental meltdowns.
If Halep avoids the upset, she faces a possible matchup with Sharapova or Bouchard in the semifinals. Her demolition of Serena Williams at the WTA Finals proves Halep is ready to take out either. A quarter finalist last year, this year Halep will make her first Australian Open final.
Roger Federer: 5-1
9 of 12
Seed: 2
Prediction: Roger Federer looks as fit and relaxed as ever. However, he will turn 34 this year and was dealt an unfriendly draw.
Federer opens against Rendy Lu. He faces either Juan Monaco or Simone Bolelli in the second round. Jeremy Chardy, ranked No. 29, may await him in the third round. He also has the formidable Ivo Karlovic and Tommy Robredo lurking in the same quarter of the draw.
If Federer manages to get past those guys, he still faces potential matches against Murray and Nadal.
This will prove too tall a task for the maestro. Federer gets to the semifinals, at best.
Maria Sharapova: 5-1
10 of 12
Seed: 2
Prediction: Sharapova enters the Australian Open with a real shot at taking the No. 1 spot. If she wins, she ends Serena Williams' long rein as No. 1. A dream scenario for Sharapova would be a win over Williams to reclaim the No. 1 ranking.
That's probably not going to happen. Sharapova has a relatively easy draw. She should get past Bouchard in the quarterfinals. However, she will not be able to overcome Halep's speed in the semifinals.
With an early-round upset loss by Williams, the semifinals could still be enough to get Sharapova the No. 1 ranking.
Novak Djokovic: 1-1
11 of 12
Seed: 5
Prediction: The oddsmakers consider Djokovic as close to a sure thing as you can get. Right now he's playing better and appears to be healthy.
Melbourne has been good for Djokovic. After a loss to Ivo Karlovic in Doha, Djokovic spoke with reporters about his chances and the difference between tune-ups and Slams.
"Well, knowing that I have a great record in Melbourne for Australian Open for so many years gives me enough confidence that going into 2015 tournament, I like playing best of five.
"
A quarter finalist last year, Djokovic has reached the quarters or better every year since 2008. Djokovic also benefits from a danger-free draw. It's just the type of setup to propel Djokovic to his fifth Australian Open win.
Serena Williams: 9-4
12 of 12
Seed: 1
Prediction: Last year Serena Williams arrived in Melbourne an overwhelming favorite. She had finished 2013 78-4, with two Grand Slam titles. Yet she fell in the fourth round.
This year she arrives in questionable form. She dropped two of her four matches in the Hopman Cup mixed doubles tournament.
Yet Williams received exactly what she needed, a relatively easy draw and a chance to play herself into championship shape.
Williams is far more susceptible to upsets in early rounds. Once she sees a trophy within her grasp, she rarely relinquishes. If she gets beyond the fourth round, Williams will win her sixth Australian Open title and 19th Grand Slam.
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