Ravens vs. Patriots: Updated Odds, Stat Predictions for 2015 AFC Divisional Game

The Baltimore Ravens are 6.5-point underdogs at the New England Patriots on Saturday in the AFC divisional round, per Odds Shark. While the top-seeded Patriots were resting up, the Ravens were defeating their bitter rivals the Pittsburgh Steelers at Heinz Field.

Winning on the road is something the Ravens have done during their postseason runs in both of the franchise's Super Bowl titles in 2012 and 2000. In those years, the Ravens won two road playoff games en route to the title.

Shaun Church of Bleacher Report reminded us just how successful Joe Flacco has been against Tom Brady.

For Baltimore to reach Super Bowl XLIX, it must win three. This week's assignment will be anything but easy. The Pats offense has shown balance all season. The offensive line has protected well Brady all season.

He was sacked just 21 times. Getting pressure on him will be key for the Ravens if they hope to pull off the upset. In New England's four losses during the regular season, Brady was sacked 12 times. Can the Ravens mount enough pressure to get after the future Hall of Famer?

Dumervil, Suggs and Ngata Will Do Their Part

Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

Baltimore has a trio of excellent pass-rushers in Elvis Dumervil, Terrell Suggs and Haloti Ngata. Between the three, they had 31 sacks during the regular season. Had Ngata not served a suspension during the season, they might have had more.

The Pats offensive line struggles against speedy edge-rushers and that's exactly what Dumervil and Suggs are. Baltimore needs to sack Brady at least three times to win. Suggs, Dumervil and Ngata will get to him at least three times.

Rushing Attacks

Running the ball effectively will be a big key in this game. Both teams are rated in the top 10 in rushing yards per game. Baltimore doesn't possess dynamic weapons in the passing game, thus it needs the run game to set up the play action.

The Patriots have been unpredictable with their offensive approach all season. From week to week, you never know what to expect from them. That said, the offense has struggled to score points the last two weeks of the season.

Against the New York Jets and Buffalo Bills in Week 16 and 17, respectively, the Pats have scored a grand total of 26 points. If New England hopes to start looking like a formidable offense again, it must find a consistent contributor out of the backfield.

While both teams will attempt to establish the run, I predict neither will reach the century mark as a team in what will be a grind-it-out affair.

The Turnover Battle

Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

If you want to know the biggest reason the Patriots were so good this season, look at their turnover numbers. They had just 13 giveaways all year as opposed to the Ravens' 20.

In a game that figures to be close throughout, this stat category could determine the outcome.

Playing at home, I trust Brady to take better care of the ball than Flacco. Brady won't throw a pick and his team won't put the ball on the ground. Baltimore on the other hand has had four turnovers in its last three games.

That includes three against the Houston Texans in Week 16. While establishing the run game and getting pressure on the quarterback are all important for Baltimore, winning the turnover battle is perhaps most important.

Baltimore's offense will turn it over twice and this will cost it the game and a berth in the AFC Championship Game.