Indianapolis Colts vs. Denver Broncos Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Denver Broncos dig the home cooking this time of the season, winning seven of their last nine postseason home games and going 6-3 against the spread in those contests.

But Denver has also lost six of its last seven meetings with the Indianapolis Colts, going 0-7 ATS in the process. The Broncos with quarterback Peyton Manning take on Indy and Andrew Luck for the third time Sunday in an AFC Divisional Round playoff contest at Mile High.

Point spread: Broncos opened as seven-point favorites; the total was 54 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 31.9-28.4 Broncos

Why the Colts can cover the spread

The Colts just dominated Cincinnati in an AFC Wild Card Game, winning 26-10, outgaining the Bengals 482-254 and covering as four-point favorites. Indy scratched out a 10-9 halftime lead, then won the second half 13-0.

So the Colts have won six of their last seven games, the only loss in that span coming at Dallas, which is also still alive in these NFL playoffs.

On the season, Indianapolis ranked third in total offense and 11th in total defense, and went 5-3 ATS on the road. Also, while the Colts lost to the Broncos in Denver back in September 31-24, they rallied to pull within one score with three minutes to go and covered the spread as eight-point underdogs.

And don't forget the small fact that they have covered seven straight against Denver.

Why the Broncos can cover the spread

The Broncos are the second seed in the AFC, playing at home, with an extra week to prepare. Denver ended the regular season on a 5-1 run and finished with a perfect 8-0 mark at Mile High, covering some big numbers, like -8 against Arizona, -7 against San Francisco and -9 against San Diego.

For the season, the Broncos ranked fourth in total offense and third in total defense, and with C.J. Anderson emerging as a reliable running threat, they posted a plus-32 per-game ground-yardage margin, which also ranked among the best in the league.

Finally, Denver beat Indy back in September 31-24, but that game wasn't quite as close as that final score might indicate, considering the Broncos led 31-10 midway through the fourth quarter.

Smart pick

Teams that outrushed their opponents this NFL season covered the spread 69 percent of the time, and the team most likely to win the ground battle in this matchup is Denver.

So the smart choice here is with the Broncos, giving the points (and taking the OVER as these teams always seem to combine for lots of points).

Betting trends

• Indianapolis is on a 7-0 ATS streak against Denver.
• Eight of the past nine meetings between these teams played OVER the total.

All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark—follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.