Baltimore Ravens vs. New England Patriots Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Baltimore Ravens continued their recent playoff magic last week, winning an AFC Wild Card Game in Pittsburgh. Baltimore is now 5-1 straight up and 6-0 against the spread in its last six postseason contests. The Ravens are also 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS in their last three playoff meetings with the New England Patriots. Baltimore visits New England once again this Saturday for an AFC Divisional Round playoff battle.

Point spread: The Patriots opened as seven-point favorites; the total was 47.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 36.2-26.9 Patriots

Why the Ravens can cover the spread

The Ravens have won six of their last eight games after beating the Steelers 30-17 at Heinz Field on Saturday. Baltimore got outgained and outrushed by Pittsburgh but made the big plays when needed, including several throws by quarterback Joe Flacco, several tough catches by Steve Smith, three field goals by Justin Tucker (including a 52-yarder) and a circus interception by Terrell Suggs that led to the game-clinching score.

For the season, the Ravens ranked 12th in total offense and eighth in total defense and outrushed foes by a per-game average of 126-88. And that's a good sign when searching for cash, as teams that outrushed their opponents this NFL season covered the spread 69 percent of the time.

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

The Patriots are the top seed in the AFC playoffs, are playing at home and didn't have to play last week. After a 2-2 start to this season, New England won 10 of its last 12 games, the only two losses in that span coming at Green Bay and in a totally meaningless season finale against Buffalo.

Along the way, the Patriots beat four playoff qualifiers—Cincinnati, Denver, Indianapolis and Detroit—by an average score of 41-17. On the season, New England ranked 11th in total offense, 13th in total defense and second in turnover margin at plus-12. Finally, while the Patriots have struggled against Baltimore in recent playoffs, they beat the Ravens 41-7 in the most recent meeting, just over one year ago in Baltimore.

Smart pick

New England may be 16-1 SU and 12-5 ATS in its last 17 home games, but that doesn't mean anything to Baltimore, which looks like it might be gearing up for another Super Bowl run.

Five seasons ago, the Ravens shocked the Patriots 33-14 in a Wild Card Game in Foxborough. Four seasons ago, Baltimore took New England to the limit in a 23-20 playoff defeat, also at Gillette Stadium. And two seasons ago, the Ravens stuffed the Patriots 28-13 in the AFC Championship Game, also in Foxborough. It won't come as much of a surprise if Baltimore wins this game outright as well.

Betting trends

• The total has gone under in six of Baltimore's last eight games when playing on the road against New England.
• New England is 4-1 ATS in its last five games at home.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line-move updates.