Dallas Cowboys vs. Green Bay Packers Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Dallas Cowboys will take their perfect regular-season road record to Lambeau Field Sunday for an NFC Divisional Round matchup with the Green Bay Packers, who went 8-0 at home in 2014 and 6-1-1 against the spread.

However, their road mark in the playoffs isn't very good, as the Cowboys are just 2-11 in playoff road games since 1981, according to the NFL database at Odds Shark.

The NFC East-champion Cowboys are coming off a 24-20 win over the Detroit Lions on the weekend as six-point home favorites, and they have won their last nine road games dating back to 2013 to go along with a 7-2 mark ATS.

Divisional playoff point spread: Packers opened as 6.5-point favorites; the total was 53 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 37.3-33.6 Packers

Why the Cowboys can cover the spread

Dallas gained new life in the second half of last week’s victory against the Lions, rallying back from a double-digit deficit and holding them to only three points after the intermission. The Cowboys seem to be a team of destiny in some respects, whether you look at their success away from home or the breaks they get at AT&T Stadium, where the referees helped them beat Detroit.

As a Wisconsin native, Dallas quarterback Tony Romo grew up a Green Bay fan and should be motivated to earn his second career win at Lambeau and first road victory in the postseason.

Why the Packers can cover the spread

The NFC North-champion Packers dominated opponents at home during the regular season, averaging nearly 40 points per game. They have also gone 3-0 straight-up and ATS in the last three meetings with the Cowboys and 5-2 SU and vs. the line in their previous seven home games against NFC East opponents.

Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers needed the extra rest of the bye week to recover from a calf injury and should be able to take advantage of a Dallas defense that suffered some key injuries of its own in the playoff win against the Lions. Even at less than 100 percent, Rodgers helped the Packers defeat Detroit 30-20 and cover the spread as eight-point home favorites to win the division in Week 17.

Smart pick

The health of Rodgers is a giant concern for Green Bay heading into this game, and while the time off should definitely help, he could still struggle in this spot. The Cowboys have had no fear on the road and will not be intimidated by the crowd at Lambeau.

Romo’s offensive weapons are arguably better than what the Packers have with wide receivers Dez Bryant and Terrance Williams plus NFL rushing leader DeMarco Murray joining him in the backfield.

Bryant remains one of the top matchup problems for any defense, and Murray’s strong running will continue to open things up in the passing game for Romo. There is a myth that Green Bay is unbeatable at home in the postseason, but this team has lost five of its past eight playoff games at Lambeau, going 2-5-1 ATS.

Look for Dallas to continue its magic on the road with an upset win.

Betting trends

1. Dallas is 1-4 ATS in its last five games when playing on the road against Green Bay.
2. The total has gone over in seven of Green Bay's last eight games at home.

All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark—follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.