Thorgan Hazard: Are Chelsea Being Ripped off by Borussia Monchengladbach?

Eden Hazard and Thorgan Hazard may never combine for a Premier League goal as Chelsea team-mates.

Having signed Thorgan on loan from Chelsea, Borussia Monchengladbach want to buy him for €8.7/£6.8 million, per Simon Jones at the Daily Mail.  

Chelsea must say to Borussia Monchengladbach: "Thanks, but no thanks."

Borussia Monchengladbach's bid for Thorgan does not adequately cover Chelsea from being short-changed down the line should he develop into a world-class footballer.

The idea of making easy money by selling Thorgan, a €1/£0.8 million signing from Lens, may appeal to Chelsea, because it is a profitable transfer.

But it could be a ruse if you understand Borussia Monchengladbach's modus operandi.

Bundesliga 2014-15	Rank	Buy	Sell	Net Spend
Bayern Munich	1/18	€52.1/£40.66M	€53.70/£41.9M	-€1.6/£1.25M
Wolfsburg	2/18	€9.55/£7.45M	€3.85/£3M	€5.7/£4.45M
Bayer Leverkusen	3/18	€30.06/£23.46M	€18.35/£14.32M	€11.71/£9.14M
Borussia Monchengladbach	4/18	€11.75/£9.17M	€17.90/£13.97M	-€6.15/£4.8M
Werder Bremen	16/18	€1.8/£1.4M	€2.65/£2.07M	-€0.85/£0.66M
Borussia Dortmund	17/18	€66.1/£51.58M	€4.8/£3.75M	€61.3/£47.84M
Freiburg	18/18	€12.35/£9.64M	€18.6/£14.51M	-€6.25/£4.88M

Borussia Monchengladbach sporting director Max Eberl is revelling in his moneyball-esque approach.

Not only is Borussia Monchengladbach's net spending the most efficient of the top four Bundesliga sides, but Eberl has built a competitive squad from a modest budget.

Here are three words Chelsea need to associate with Eberl: calculated, decisive and thorough.

Instead of being giddy that there is a serious buyer for Thorgan, Chelsea need to be cynical. 

Rewind to Chelsea's press release, per ChelseaFC.com: "Thorgan Hazard has today joined German side Borussia Monchengladbach on a season-long loan."

The imperative phrase being season-long.

"I hope that we sign [Thorgan] on a permanent deal," Eberl said, per Bild (h/t Stephan Uersfeld at ESPN FC). "We are constantly talking to Chelsea."

Eberl hassling Chelsea this early should be a red flag.

Bundesliga 2014-15	Cost	Goals	Shots Per Goal	Assists	Key Passes Per Game
Hakan Calhanoglu	€14/£10.9M	4	16	2	2.2
Shinji Kagawa	€8.1/£6.3M	1	16	0	2
Filip Kostic	€6/£4.7M	1	20	1	0.4
Nicolai Muller	€4.5/£3.5M	1	19	1	1
Hiroshi Kiyotake	€4/£3.1M	3	7.7	3	1.8
Steven Zuber	€3.9/£3M	0	0	1	0.4
Valentin Stocker	€3.5/£2.7M	0	0	3	1.1
Sidney Sam	€2.5/£2M	0	0	0	1.1
Andre Hahn	€2.25/£1.76M	3	10.7	1	0.7
Thorgan Hazard	Loan	1	10	4	0.7

When you compare and contrast a sample size of 10 midfielders signed in the summer window, Hahn and Thorgan have been economically efficient transfers for Borussia Monchengladbach, which reinforces how shrewd Eberl is.

Hahn has scored the same amount of goals (three; €2.25/£1.76 million) as Kagawa, Kostic and Muller combined (€18.6/£14.5 million).

As a loanee, Thorgan has scored and created four more total goals than the €8.1/£6.3 million-valued Kagawa.

When evaluating Thorgan, his numbers are unimpressive on the surface.

• Starting 28.6 percent of Bundesliga games Thorgan has been involved in raises questions about his consistency. 
• 87 Bundesliga players scoring more goals (two plus) than Thorgan indicates he lacks scoring upside.
  
• Thorgan's primary attacking statistics are below-par: 0.7 shots, key passes, dribbles and 14.7 passes per game.

In this context, Chelsea selling Thorgan to Borussia Monchengladbach for €8.7/£6.8 million is a no-brainer.

However, Thorgan's statistics are masked by his sub-affected 35.1 minutes per game.

• Borussia Monchengladbach manager Lucien Favre has rotated Thorgan (527 minutes) with Patrick Herrmann (939 minutes), Fabian Johnson (345 minutes) and Ibrahima Traore (471 minutes).
• Thorgan's job is not to be a scorer but a facilitator. He has registered more assists (four) than Franck Ribery (three).
• Thorgan's primary attacking statistics improve substantially if you assess him per 90 minutes: 1.7 shots, 1.9 key passes, 1.7 dribbles and 37.6 passes per 90 minutes. 

Thorgan's statistics are measurable, but one attribute Chelsea cannot quantify is his intangibles. 

"All I'm trying to do is give my all every game in order to pay back [Favre's] trust and help the team to pick up good results," Thorgan said, per Bundesliga.com. "Obviously, I want to be starting games as quickly as possible, and for that reason I'm putting in 100 percent in training."

Interchanging from being a super-sub, a left winger and a deep-lying forward, Thorgan has proven he not only can play different roles but can be productive in limited minutes. 

An accurate gauge of Thorgan's progress is to compare him to the performances of former Borussia Monchengladbach players in their debut Bundesliga season having arrived from the Belgian Pro League.

Bundesliga	Season	Kicker Rating	Belgian Pro League Club
Thorgan Hazard	2014-15	3.00	Zulte Waregem
Igor de Camargo	2010-11	4.00	Standard Liege
Dante	2008-09	4.11	Standard Liege
Joris van Hout	2002-03	3.44	Anderlecht

Kicker subjectively rate players on a scale of one to six (one being world class, six being 2. Bundesliga level).

Thorgan has a significantly higher rating than De Camargo, Dante and Van Hout.

Chelsea need to get into the mind of Eberl and attempt to think from his perspective. 

In the space of three years, Thorgan has gone from being on the books of Lens to the Belgian Golden Shoe recipient at Zulte Waregem and now a contributor at Borussia Monchengladbach.

You can only surmise Eberl strongly believes Thorgan will experience another rapid career rise.

Borussia Monchengladbach	Transfer Fee	Signed From	Year
Luuk de Jong	€15/£11.7M	Twente	2012
Granit Xhaka	€8.5/£6.6M	Basel	2012
Alvaro Dominguez	€8/£6.2M	Atletico Madrid	2012
Yann Sommer	€6/£4.7M	Basel	2014
Max Kruse	€2.5/£2M	Freiburg	2013
Peniel Mlapa	€2.5/£2M	Hoffenheim	2012
Andre Hahn	€2.25/£1.76M	Augsburg	2014
Fabian Johnson	Bosman	Hoffenheim	2014
Ibrahima Traore	Bosman	Stuttgart	2014
Christoph Kramer	Loan	Bayer Leverkusen	2013

Eberl has a policy of spending more on foreign imports than Bundesliga-standard players. 

Thorgan is a foreigner, but with Bundesliga experience, so you presume this is why his €8.7/£6.8 million valuation is in between the two scenarios Eberl wants to avoid.

De Jong: Eberl broke the bank for the Dutch centre-forward, but he struggled with the expectations and his prolific scoring in the Eredivisie never transitioned to the Bundesliga.

Favre "said from the start he didn't have 100 percent confidence in De Jong," according to Borussia Monchengladbach board member Hans Meyer, per Sky Sports.

Arriving at Newcastle United on loan, De Jong was damaged goods, going 672 minutes without a goal in the Premier League.

He is back in the Eredivisie scoring goals for PSV Eindhoven.

Kramer: Eberl never got Bayer Leverkusen to the stage of "you had my curiosity, but now you have my attention."

Bayer Leverkusen chief executive officer Michael Schade was happy in extending Kramer's contract until 2019 because he was a rough diamond, pre-Borussia Monchengladbach loan.

"Christoph has made great progress," Schade said, per Bayer04.de. "It couldn't have gone better for the player or [Bayer Leverkusen]."

Chelsea need to pay attention to one of Eberl's remarks with regards to the transfer market.

"A big part of our strategy is to focus on youngsters," Eberl said, per Marc Friedrich at Deutsche Welle. "When some big club comes and lures these players away then it has to be for the biggest amount of money possible."

€8.7/£6.8 million is not "the biggest amount of money possible" for Thorgan when you factor in him potentially emulating Kramer by taking his game to the next level.

If Chelsea sell Thorgan to Borussia Monchengladbach for €8.7/£6.8 million, then Eberl would have pulled a fast one.

"

Thorgan Hazard artwork. #CFC @HazardThorgan8 pic.twitter.com/dviVhTfA6D

— Jay C. Archer (@JayCArcher) February 4, 2014"

What about Chelsea facing the hypothetical situation of Thorgan wanting out?

Chelsea are playing with house money as Eden is the trump card to keep younger brother Thorgan.

What should Chelsea do?

• Keep Thorgan at Borussia Monchengladbach.
• Punt on his transfer stock exponentially rising.
• Either negotiate a fee in the range of Kevin De Bruyne's €21.3/£16.7 million transfer to Wolfsburg, or give Thorgan a fair chance to make Chelsea manager Jose Mourinho's first-team squad.

+allanjiang.

When not specified, statistics via WhoScored.com.