UFC 182: Early Predictions for Jones vs. Cormier Main Event
On Jan. 3, the bitter feud between Jon Jones and Daniel Cormier will finally come to a head when they fight at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas.
By now, the rivalry that has formed between the UFC light heavyweight champion and the former Strikeforce Heavweight Grand Prix winner has been well documented. The animosity between the two has become great promotional fodder for the organization.
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The time for tough talk has now passed. The question is whether DC's impressive wrestling pedigree, strength and athleticism will be answered in the Octagon on Saturday night. All the hype aside, there's no doubting that Cormier presents a unique challenge when compared to the previous seven contenders for Jones' title.
Here's an early look at the main event with a prediction as to who will have his hand raised when it's all said and done.
When: Saturday, Jan. 3
Start Time: Fight Pass Prelims at 7 p.m. ET (subscription required); Fox Sports 1 Prelims at 8 p.m. ET; Main Card pay-per-view at 10 p.m. ET
Where: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas
Live Stream: UFC.tv
| 20-1 | Record | 15-0 |
| 6'4" | Height | 5'11" |
| 205 | Weight | 205 |
| 9 | KO/TKO | 6 |
| 6 | Sub. | 4 |
| 5 | Dec. | 5 |
| -175 | Odds | +155 |
Odds via Odds Shark as of Sunday, Dec. 28 at noon ET.
Fight Preview
Looking at the odds attached to this bout, it's clear that the public is buying Cormier as a legitimate threat to the champion. Jones' line is the lowest it's been since he took on Mauricio "Shogun" Rua for the title in 2011, according to the numbers recorded by BestFightOdds.com.
Beside the UFC's great job of hyping up the fight, there's a reason for that.
Cormier's wrestling pedigree is well documented. Before becoming an undefeated mixed martial artist, DC was a fourth-place finisher in freestyle wrestling at the 2004 Olympics, a bronze medalist in the 2007 Wrestling World Championships and a 2008 Team USA wrestling captain.
What's more, the former Strikeforce star has demonstrated that his wrestling skills translate to MMA. He emerged victorious in the now-defunct organization's heavyweight tournament and sports an undefeated record.
Looking at the fighters' stats up to this point in their careers, the matchup once again looks even:
| 4.33 | Strikes Landed/Min. | 4.08 |
| 55% | Accuracy | 50% |
| 1.92 | Strikes Absorbed/Min. | 1.30 |
| 66% | Defense | 71% |
| 2.37 | Takedowns/15 Min. | 2.17 |
| 50% | Takedown Accuracy | 48% |
| 96% | Takedown Defense | 100% |
| 12:41 | Average Fight Time | 10:21 |
However, there is still one advantage of Jones' that Cormier must overcome: the champion's reach. As Reed Kuhn of Fightnomics points out, the reach differential is one of the biggest in UFC history:
If Jones' freakish wingspan can be counteracted, Cormier has the tools to do it. Overshadowed by his strength and wrestling is the fact that DC has extremely quick hands and is a dynamic athlete himself. There's a possibility that he's quick enough to close the distance and catch Jones napping or at least clinch up to set up takedowns.
Of course, no one is better at utilizing his or her reach than the reigning champion. There's an equally good chance that Jones will be able to control the distance with an array of leg kicks, jabs and elbows and slowly break down the challenger over the course of the five-round fight.
Essentially, it all comes down to distance. If Jones can patiently pick apart the challenger, it's another easy title defense. If Cormier can find ways to close that distance, the champion just might find himself on his back.
Prediction
Another fighter who knows a thing or two about utilizing distance is Alexander Gustafsson. As the lone title contender who has actually experienced some success against Jones, the 6'5" Swede has unique insight into the champion's challenge that lies ahead.
“It’s an interesting matchup,” he told Thomas Gerbasi of UFC.com. “Both are great athletes and it’s going to be a tough fight for sure. But Jones has his height and reach advantage over DC, so I think that will be the key thing in this fight. I think Jones by decision.”
It's difficult to argue with Gustafsson. Cormier and Jones are very different fighters, but both possess upper-echelon athleticism.
If Cormier is going to pull off the upset, he'll need to make the most of the times he's able to close the distance. That means getting the fight to the mat and keeping top control or landing some of his powerful boxing on the inside.
Basically, he needs to be the Cormier who ragdolled Dan Henderson and not the one who merely kept Frank Mir pinned against the cage at heavyweight.
Realistically, the task of consistently getting within striking distance of the champion will be too large. Cormier will have his moments in the fight. It's conceivable that he'll even spend the majority of one round in top control.
However, Jones should be able to control the pace and distance of the fight for long enough to earn the nod from the judges.
Jones via unanimous decision.
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