NFL Playoff Scenarios 2014-15: AFC, NFC Picture and Week 17 Predictions

Sunday is going to be an amazing day of football. Several teams are fighting to get into the playoffs. The AFC North, the NFC South, the NFC East and the NFC West titles are on the line. Playoff positioning remains in flux.

It's all happening, folks. Bring on Sunday!

In an effort to help break down what could potentially happen—and what might go down as well—I've laid out the playoff scenarios for every contending team below, along with predictions and some analysis of the matchups to come.

It's going to be fun.

Playoff Scenarios

Here's a look at the updated playoff picture, courtesy of the NFL's official press release:

Week 17 AFC Scenarios

Denver Broncos clinch first-round bye with:

1. Denver win vs. Oakland OR
2. Denver tie vs. Oakland + Cincinnati loss or tie vs. Pittsburgh OR
3. Cincinnati loss OR
4. Cincinnati tie + Indianapolis win vs. Tennessee

Cincinnati Bengals clinch AFC North with:

1. Cincinnati win or tie vs. Pittsburgh

Bengals clinch first-round bye with:

1. Cincinnati win + Denver loss or tie OR
2. Cincinnati tie + Denver loss + Indianapolis loss or tie

Pittsburgh Steelers clinch AFC North with:

1. Pittsburgh win vs. Cincinnati

San Diego Chargers clinch playoff spot with:

1. San Diego win vs. Kansas City OR
2. San Diego tie + Baltimore loss or tie vs. Cleveland

Baltimore Ravens clinch playoff spot with:

1. Baltimore win + San Diego loss or tie OR
2. Baltimore tie + San Diego loss

Kansas City Chiefs clinch playoff spot with:

1. Kansas City win + loss by Baltimore + loss or tie by Houston

Houston Texans clinch playoff spot with:

1. Houston win + losses by both Baltimore and San Diego

Week 17 NFC Scenarios

Dallas Cowboys clinch home-field advantage throughout NFC with:

1. Dallas win + loss or tie by Arizona vs. San Francisco + Detroit vs. Green Bay tie OR
2. Dallas win + win by Seattle vs. St. Louis + Detroit vs. Green Bay tie

Cowboys clinch first-round bye with:

1. Dallas win + loss or tie by both Seattle and Arizona OR
2. Dallas win + Detroit vs. Green Bay tie OR
3. Seattle and Arizona both lose OR
4. Dallas and Seattle both tie + Arizona loses or ties + Detroit vs. Green Bay does not end in a tie

Detroit Lions clinch NFC North with:

1. Lions win or tie

Lions clinch home-field advantage throughout NFC playoffs with:

1. Lions win + Seattle loss or tie + Arizona loss or tie OR
2. Detroit tie + losses by both Seattle and Arizona + Dallas loses or ties

Lions clinch first-round bye with:

1. Detroit win OR
2. Detroit tie + Dallas loss or tie OR
3. Detroit tie + both Arizona and Seattle lose

Green Bay Packers clinch NFC North and first-round bye with:

1. Green Bay win

Packers clinch home-field advantage throughout NFC playoffs with:

1. Green Bay win + loss or tie by Seattle

Seattle Seahawks clinch NFC West with:

1. Seattle win OR
2. Seattle tie + loss or tie by Arizona OR
3. Arizona loss

Seahawks clinch home-field advantage throughout NFC playoffs with:

1. Seattle win + Detroit vs. Green Bay does not end in tie OR
2. Seattle win + Dallas loss or tie OR
3. Seattle tie + losses or ties by both Arizona and Dallas + Detroit vs. Green Bay tie

Seahawks clinch first-round bye with:

1. Seattle win OR
2. Seattle tie + Arizona loss or tie + Dallas loss OR
3. Seattle tie + Arizona loss or tie + Detroit vs. Green Bay tie

Arizona Cardinals clinch NFC West with:

1. Arizona win + Seattle loss or tie OR
2. Arizona tie + Seattle loss

Cardinals clinch home-field advantage throughout NFC playoffs with:

1. Arizona win + Seattle and Green Bay both lose or tie OR
2. Arizona tie + Seattle loss + Dallas loss or tie + Detroit vs. Green Bay tie

Cardinals clinch first-round bye with:

1. Arizona win + Seattle loss or tie OR
2. Arizona tie + Seattle loss + Dallas loss or tie OR
3. Arizona tie + Seattle loss + Detroit vs. Green Bay tie

Carolina Panthers clinch NFC South with:

1. Carolina win or tie vs. Atlanta

Atlanta Falcons clinch NFC South with:

1. Atlanta win

Predictions

Sunday, December 28	Time (ET)	TV	Prediction
Philadelphia at NY Giants	1 p.m.	Fox	Eagles
Carolina at Atlanta	1 p.m.	CBS	Falcons
Cleveland at Baltimore	1 p.m.	CBS	Ravens
Dallas at Washington	1 p.m.	Fox	Cowboys
Indianapolis at Tennessee	1 p.m.	CBS	Colts
Jacksonville at Houston	1 p.m.	CBS	Texans
San Diego at Kansas City	1 p.m.	CBS	Chargers
NY Jets at Miami	1 p.m.	CBS	Dolphins
Chicago at Minnesota	1 p.m.	Fox	Vikings
Buffalo at New England	1 p.m.	CBS	Patriots
New Orleans at Tampa Bay	1 p.m.	Fox	Saints
Detroit at Green Bay	4:25 p.m.	Fox	Packers
Oakland at Denver	4:25 p.m.	CBS	Broncos
Arizona at San Francisco	4:25 p.m.	Fox	49ers
St. Louis at Seattle	4:25 p.m.	Fox	Seahawks
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh	8:30 p.m.	NBC	Steelers

Analysis

Based off of my predictions, here's what the AFC playoffs will look like:

1. New England Patriots (bye)
2. Denver Broncos (bye)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
4. Indianapolis Colts
5. Cincinnati Bengals
6. San Diego Chargers

And here's the NFC:

1. Seattle Seahawks (bye)
2. Green Bay Packers (bye)
3. Dallas Cowboys
4. Atlanta Falcons
5. Arizona Cardinals
6. Detroit Lions

Some Week 17 predictions are easier to make than others.

When in doubt, bet on the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. Don't expect Peyton Manning and Co. to give away home-field advantage by losing to the Oakland Raiders. The Seattle Seahawks are the hottest team in football, and they aren't about to give away the top seed in the NFC by losing to the St. Louis Rams in Seattle. 

Some are a bit trickier.

Chris Graythen/Getty Images

The Carolina Panthers and the Atlanta Falcons game feels like a toss-up, but the Falcons hold several advantages. They won the first game, for starters. They're at home, and Matt Ryan is playing his best football of the season right now, with 1,368 passing yards, nine touchdowns and three interceptions in his last four games.

Julio Jones has been impossible to cover down the stretch, too, with 555 receiving yards and two touchdowns in his last three games. This one could go either way, yes, but I'll side with Ryan and Jones tearing up Carolina's suspect secondary.

I'll also take Pittsburgh at home over a suddenly hot Bengals team. The Steelers have won three straight over quality opponents, they hammered the Bengals in Week 14, and Ben Roethlisberger has been a different quarterback at home than he has been on the road.

Venue	Completion %	Yards	TD	INT	QB Rating
Home	68.8	2,461	21	3	117.4
Road	66.0	2,174	9	5	91.0

The Chargers find themselves in a win-and-get-in situation, meanwhile, though a road game against Kansas City is no easy task. The Chiefs surely would love nothing more than to keep their division rival out of the playoffs, and the fact that they are 5-2 at home—with wins over the Pats and the Seahawks in Kansas City, no less—means San Diego's task is all the taller.

Still, this is a Chargers team that won four games in a row down the stretch last year to get into the playoffs, upset the Bengals in the divisional round once they were in and just saved their season by beating the San Francisco 49ers in overtime. 

In other words, Philip Rivers and Co. have a habit of saving their best for last. Don't bet against San Diego on Sunday.