St. Louis Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Seattle Seahawks are a dominant home team, going 9-1 straight up and 7-3 against the spread over their last 10 home games. But Seattle is only 3-2 SU and 1-4 ATS in its last five games against the St. Louis Rams. And to clinch the top seed in the upcoming NFC playoffs, the Seahawks might need a victory over the Rams on Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: The Seahawks opened as 10-point favorites; the total was 41 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report). 

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 30.0-22.7 Seahawks

Why the Rams can cover the spread

The Rams had been on a nice run, winning five of eight games SU and going 6-2 ATS with wins over Seattle, San Francisco and Denver and back-to-back shutouts over Oakland and Washington. But St. Louis has lost its last two games after falling at home to the Giants 37-27. The Rams trailed 20-3 early and got within 27-20 late in the third quarter but ran out of gas.

On the season, St. Louis ranks 25th in total offense, but much of that has to do with the carousel at quarterback. And while the Rams rank 18th in total defense, they've also held five of their last eight opponents to 12 points or less. Finally, St. Louis beat the Seahawks back in October by a score of 28-26.

Why the Seahawks can cover the spread

The Seahawks hit a couple of speed bumps earlier this season, but they've now won five games in a row after pulling away for a 35-6 victory at Arizona last week. Seattle piled up 596 yards of offense, held the Cardinals to just 216 total yards and scored three times in the fourth quarter to secure the cover as a nine-point favorite.

At 11-4 overall, the Seahawks can now secure the top seed in the NFC with a victory this week. Seattle leads the league—by a long shot—in outrushing opponents by 91 yards per game this season. And so far this season, teams that have outrushed foes have covered the spread 69 percent of the time.

Smart pick

Seattle is the defending Super Bowl champion, prowling for the repeat, while St. Louis is just playing for pride. But the Seahawks have been a bit skittish this season, and the Rams provide a tough head-to-head matchup.

This one could get ugly, and while Seattle is likely to come away with the victory, the smart money probably sides with St. Louis and the points.

Betting trends

• The total has gone under in seven of St. Louis's last 10 games on the road.
• The total has gone under in eight of Seattle's last 12 games at home.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line-move updates.