Oakland Raiders vs. Denver Broncos Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

Since bringing in Peyton Manning to do what he does at the quarterback spot, the Denver Broncos are perfect against the rival Oakland Raiders, going 5-0 straight up, 4-0-1 against the spread and winning those five games by an average score of 35-14. The 11-4 Broncos shoot to sew up a first-round playoff bye when they host the 3-12 Raiders Sunday afternoon at Mile High.

Point spread: Broncos opened as 14-point favorites; the total was 48 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 29.1-12.8 Broncos

Why the Raiders can cover the spread

The Raiders just won for the third time in their last five outings, beating Buffalo, 26-24, last week. Oakland spotted the Bills an early 7-0 lead, then scored 26 of the next 36 points to win straight up as a seven-point home dog.

The Raiders outrushed Buffalo, 140-13, and won the time-of-possession battle by a 34-minute-to-26-minute margin, and those are good signs when trying to win games and cover spreads in the NFL. Oakland is now 5-3 ATS over its last eight games, and over recent weeks, it has also beaten the Chiefs and 49ers. So that's three victories against playoff contenders over the last month or so.

Why the Broncos can cover the spread

The Broncos had won four games in a row until falling at a fired-up Cincinnati Monday night, 37-28. Denver battled from behind to take a 28-27 lead late in the third quarter, but it allowed the Bengals to score the last 10 points of the game.

The Broncos outgained Cincy, 385-353, but Manning threw four interceptions, one of which was returned for the game-clinching touchdown. At 11-4, Denver can't catch New England in the battle for the top seed in the AFC, but it can clinch the No. 2 spot and a first-round bye with a victory Sunday.

On the season, the Broncos rank fourth in total offense and third in total defense, and those are nice numbers too.

Smart Pick

Denver still needs this game for the No. 2 seed, while Oakland is just trying to be a pain in the butt. But the Broncos have dominated the Raiders with Manning, and there's not much reason to believe something similar won't happen Sunday. So while two touchdowns in a divisional rivalry is always a lot of points, the smart money here still resides with Denver.

Betting Trends

• Oakland is 4-2 ATS in its last six games.
• Denver is 2-4 SU in its last six games when playing at home against Oakland.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark - follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.