Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The San Francisco 49ers are 9-3 both straight up and against the spread in their last 12 meetings with the division-rival Arizona Cardinals, but this season it's the Cardinals who are battling for playoff seedings while the Niners are reduced to playing spoiler. Arizona, at 11-4, needs some help, but it can still claim the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC if it can get by the 7-8 Niners at Levi's Stadium Sunday.

Point spread: The 49ers opened as 3.5-point favorites; the total was 36.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 19.0-14.5 Cardinals

Why the Cardinals can cover the spread

The Cardinals laid an egg last week against the Seattle Seahawks, so they need a victory and losses by either the Seahawks or Green Bay Packers to snatch home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. Arizona is playing with a third-string quarterback, but it's still been able to gut out tough wins all season, a tribute to head coach Bruce Arians.

The Cardinals only rank 28th in the league in total offense and 24th in total defense, but they own a plus-11 turnover ratio, which has come in handy. And only four teams have given up fewer points than Arizona's 19 per game. Finally, while San Francisco has dominated the Cardinals over recent seasons, Arizona beat the Niners back in September 23-14.

Why the 49ers can cover the spread

It's tough coming up with good news for the 49ers, who are 0-4 SU over their last four games and 0-4-1 ATS over their last five.

But a case could be made that a 7-8 San Francisco team could be at least 9-6, maybe in the playoff hunt; earlier this season the 49ers blew a big lead and lost to the Chicago Bears; then they led Arizona at the half but lost; then they held the St. Louis Rams to less than 200 yards but lost; then they led Seattle late into the third quarter but lost. And last week San Francisco led San Diego 21-0 and 35-21 into the fourth quarter, but it fell victim to another Chargers comeback and lost 38-35 in overtime.

On the season the Niners rank sixth in rushing at 131 yards per game and seventh against the run, allowing 101 YPG, and numbers like that are usually conductive to winning games and covering spreads in the NFL. Finally, the 49ers might try to send Jim Harbaugh off with a bang in what looks to be his final game as San Francisco's head coach.

Smart Pick

Arizona has everything to play for, San Francisco nothing, but the Cardinals' smoke-and-mirrors tricks are wearing thin. Arizona has done a fantastic job to get where it is, but injuries eventually take their toll. The Cardinals will be playing in two weeks, but the smart money in this spot resides with the 49ers.

Betting Trends

• Arizona is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing San Francisco.
• San Francisco is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games at home.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark—follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line-move updates.