Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers have already clinched playoff berths, but they will be fighting for the AFC North title and the opportunity to host a game in the postseason when they meet at Heinz Field in the Week 17 Sunday Night Football matchup.

The Bengals earned a playoff spot with a 37-28 upset of the Denver Broncos as 3.5-point home underdogs on Monday night, while the Steelers will be trying to beat Cincinnati for the second time in four weeks following a 42-21 victory as three-point road dogs December 7.

Point spread: The Steelers opened as three-point favorites; the total was 48 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 29.1-24.9 Steelers

Why the Bengals can cover the spread

The Bengals have won four straight road games, going 3-1 against the spread, and they are coming off their biggest triumph of the season against Denver. That win over the Broncos should give them plenty of confidence, especially on the defensive side of the ball, as Cincinnati picked off future Hall of Famer Peyton Manning four times and returned one of the interceptions for a touchdown.

Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger threw for 350 yards and three touchdowns in the first meeting, while running back Le’Veon Bell added 185 yards and two more scores on the ground, both of which came in a 25-point fourth quarter.

Holding Manning and the Denver offense in check late in their game will help the Bengals believe they can stop the Steelers too.

Why the Steelers can cover the spread

Pittsburgh is coming off a 20-12 victory against the Kansas City Chiefs last week as a 2.5-point home favorite, the team’s third straight win and cover since falling to the New Orleans Saints 35-32 at Heinz Field as four-point chalk.

The Steelers limited the Chiefs to just four field goals and held Kansas City running backs Jamaal Charles and Knile Davis to a combined 31 yards on 11 carries. Their run defense figures to get tested by Cincinnati rookie running back Jeremy Hill, but he totaled only 46 yards on eight carries in the first meeting.

Hill ran for 147 yards, including an 85-yard touchdown against the Broncos. However, Pittsburgh has been more than up to the task lately and now ranks sixth in the NFL against the run, giving up 99.3 yards per game.

Smart Pick

With the Bengals already in the playoffs, they will not face nearly the same pressure to beat the Steelers as they would if this was a must-win situation. There are simply too many betting trends favoring Pittsburgh in this matchup to even look at Cincinnati in this spot.

The Steelers have won their last six home games against AFC North opponents straight up, going 5-1 ATS. They have also won four of their last five at Heinz Field overall both SU and ATS. In addition, they are 5-1 vs. the line in their past six Week 17 games. Look for Cincinnati to show signs of a Monday night hangover and play Pittsburgh to cover the spread and win the AFC North.

Betting Trends

• Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last five games on the road.
• Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in its last five games at home.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark—follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line-move updates.