Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Houston Texans are trying to close this season with a flourish that takes them to the playoffs. They've already won three of their last four games to play themselves back into wild-card contention, and they're 4-1-1 against the spread over their last six games. Houston needs a win Sunday over Jacksonville and help from other teams to make the playoffs, but at least it's still alive.

Point spread: Texans opened as 9.5-point favorites; the total was 40.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 25.0-15.3 Texans

Why the Jaguars can cover the spread

The Jags just beat Tennessee last week, 21-13, covering as a four-point favorite. So Jacksonville is now 3-1 ATS over its last four games. The Jaguars fell down, 10-0, against the Titans, but they scored 21 of the last 24 points of the game.

They also outrushed Tennessee, 177-95, with help from a game-clinching 62-yard scoring bolt from running back Jordan Todman. Just before that, Jacksonville gave the Ravens a tough game up in Baltimore, covering as a 12-point underdog, and four weeks ago, it rallied to beat the Giants outright, 25-24, as a three-point home dog.

Finally, the Jags are 2-1 straight up in the last three meetings with Houston and 3-1 ATS over the last four.

Why the Texans can cover the spread

The Texans finally made a winner of quarterback Case Keenum last week, beating Baltimore outright, 25-13, as six-point home dogs. Keenum had gone 0-8 as a starter last year for Houston, then joined Tennessee, but he came back to start last week for the team that drafted him.

The Texans outrushed the Ravens, 123-33, and won time of possession by a 35-minute-to-25-minute margin, so Houston has now outgained and outrushed each of its last four opponents. At 8-7, the Texans need a victory Sunday, plus losses by San Diego and Baltimore, to make the playoffs. Unlikely, maybe, but there's still a chance.

Smart Pick

Houston just beat the Jags in Jacksonville three weeks ago, 27-13, winning the ground game by a 169-74 margin, covering as a six-point favorite. And despite the change in quarterback for the Texans, there is no reason to believe something different will happen Sunday. So the smart pick in this spot is with Houston, giving the points.

Betting Trends

• Jacksonville is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Houston.
• Houston is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six games.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark - follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.