Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans: Betting Odds, Analysis and NFL Pick

The Indianapolis Colts own the recent rivalry with the Tennessee Titans, winning the last six meetings both straight up and against the spread. And at 10-5 this season, Indy has already wrapped up a playoff spot. The Colts will be playing for a chance at the No. 3 seed in the AFC when they visit the 2-13 Titans Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: The Colts opened as 7.5-point favorites; the total was 46 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 26.3-12.3 Colts

Why the Colts can cover the spread

The Colts had won four games in a row, going 2-1-1 ATS, until running into a buzzsaw against the Cowboys last week, suffering a 42-7 defeat. But before that, Indy was taking care of business at a good rate, beating the Jaguars, Redskins, Browns and Texans, covering at minus-13 over Jacksonville and at minus-7 over Washington.

At 10-5 overall, the Colts are in a battle with the 10-4-1 Bengals for the No. 3 and No. 4 seeds in the AFC, which could be the difference between hosting the Steelers or someone else on Wild Card Weekend. Indy ranks third in the league in total offense, 19th in total defense and is 4-3 both SU and ATS on the road this season.

Why the Titans can cover the spread

The Titans have hit the skids, losing nine games in a row, but four of those defeats have come by one score or less, including a 21-13 decision at Jacksonville last week. Tennessee actually led that game into the third quarter and eventually out-gained the Jags 357-288 while holding the ball for almost 35 minutes.

The Titans gave up a back-breaking 62-yard scoring run early in the fourth quarter to fall down by 11, but they kicked a field goal and later drove inside Jacksonville territory before finally succumbing. Tennessee got 287 yards passing from quarterback Charlie Whitehurst, without a turnover, and he now has six touchdowns to two interceptions on the season.

Smart pick

Cincinnati doesn't play until Sunday night, so as far as Indianapolis is concerned it will be playing this game for the No. 3 seed in the AFC. And at the moment, the No. 3 seed would host the Chargers instead of Pittsburgh.

So the Colts will have motivation to win this game, and odds are that if they win—and they probably will—they'll do so by enough to cover this spread.

Betting trends

• Indianapolis is 4-2 SU in its last six games on the road
• Tennessee is 1-4 SU in its last five games when playing at home against Indianapolis

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.