San Diego Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The San Diego Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs will both be fighting for the playoffs on Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium when they square off in a key Week 17 AFC West matchup. The Chargers stayed alive in the race for one of the two AFC wild-card spots by rallying back for a 38-35 overtime victory against the San Francisco 49ers last Saturday as 1.5-point road underdogs.

The Chiefs are coming off a 20-12 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers as 2.5-point road dogs last Sunday but will also still be in the hunt for a postseason berth if they beat San Diego and get some help from others.

Point spread: The Chiefs opened as three-point favorites; the total was 42.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 25.8-15.8 Chiefs

Why the Chargers can cover the spread

The Chargers could have easily bowed out last week when they were trailing the 49ers 28-7 at halftime. Instead, they fought back despite a dismal first-half performance from quarterback Philip Rivers, who was outstanding after the intermission and finished with 356 passing yards and four touchdowns.

Rivers is also reportedly battling through back and rib injuries but has proved once again to be the heart and soul of this San Diego team. The Chargers have gone 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 road games, winning seven of them, and they have also won four of the past five meetings with Kansas City, even though they lost the first game between the teams this season.

Why the Chiefs can cover the spread

The Chiefs won 23-20 at San Diego earlier this season as three-point dogs to start a five-game winning streak. Unfortunately, they have lost four of five since defeating the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks 24-20 as one-point home favorites for the fifth and final victory in that streak.

Regardless, Kansas City has beaten some very good teams this season and remains a talented squad fully capable of winning this regular-season finale. The Chiefs have also gone 5-1 straight up and ATS in their past six home games, and Arrowhead Stadium is a tough place for opponents to play in December, especially a West Coast team like the Chargers.

Smart Pick

Much like last year, San Diego seems to be a team of destiny on a mission to make the playoffs no matter who it plays or how much it is down. Neither of these teams may go far in the postseason if they are lucky enough to make it, but Chargers head coach Mike McCoy is pushing the right buttons at the right time compared to Kansas City’s Andy Reid.

The Chiefs are just 2-8 SU in their last 10 home games against AFC West opponents—going 3-7 ATS—and that speaks volumes regarding Reid, who also helped them get off to a great start last season before faltering down the stretch. San Diego is in much better current form, so bet on the Bolts to get it done once again.

Betting Trends

• San Diego is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games.
• Kansas City is 1-4 SU in its last five games when playing San Diego.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark—follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line-move updates.