Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons: Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

An unlikely matchup will decide the NFC South title in Week 17 when the Carolina Panthers visit the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET. The Falcons knocked out the New Orleans Saints from the division race last week with a 30-14 upset victory as 6.5-point road underdogs. Meanwhile, the Panthers stayed alive with a 17-13 win over the Cleveland Browns but failed to cover the spread as six-point home favorites.

Point spread: Falcons opened as 2.5-point favorites; the total was 47.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).  

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 21.7-18.0 Falcons

Why the Panthers can cover the spread

It’s hard to believe this Carolina team has an opportunity to win the NFC South for the second year in a row considering how poorly it played earlier this season. But giving the Panthers new life at this point could be dangerous, especially since they have won five of their past six road games against divisional opponents.

They are a fearless team that has forgotten all about its seven-game winless streak around midseason, which started with a 37-37 tie on the road against the Cincinnati Bengals as seven-point underdogs. While it was seen as a disappointment at the time for Carolina, that tie could ironically help the team take the division by a half-game over the Saints if they both win.

Why the Falcons can cover the spread

Atlanta has obviously not been the most consistent team this year, but no team in the NFC South has been, unless you are talking about being consistently bad like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

In fact, all of the teams in the division have gone through terrible stretches, but the Falcons actually have a winning record over their last seven games, going 4-3 straight up and against the spread.

They even showed some fight two weeks ago in a 43-37 loss to the Green Bay Packers, coming back from a 31-7 halftime deficit to cover easily as 13.5-point road underdogs. Atlanta is 5-0 ATS in its last five home games against NFC South opponents.

Smart Pick

In an unpredictable year like this in the NFC South, bettors can expect the unexpected. The Panthers are the better defensive team and should be fine playing indoors at the Georgia Dome, where quarterback Cam Newton will be on a fast track after returning from a car accident last week.

Carolina has covered the spread in four of the past five meetings with the Falcons, and three of those games were decided by two points or fewer. It’s hard to imagine this one being decided by more than a field goal for either side, which makes the Panthers the play as the underdogs.

Betting Trends

• Carolina is 1-4-1 SU in its last six games on the road.
• The total has gone under in eight of Atlanta's last 11 games.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.