Offseason Fantasy Football Guide for Dynasty and Keeper Leagues

Late-season keeper questions have to be the most annoying thing a fantasy analyst faces. The paint is not only still wet on 2014—it has barely been brushed on.

There are just too many variables ahead this winter to truly get a grip on rankings, projections and short- and long-term futures. That won't keep the questions from coming or keep us from needing to review the status of rookies and keepers for dynasty leagues.

As we head into Week 17, we recap what has been a legendary 2014 rookie class—especially as it relates to the wide receivers. We project the long-term rankings of the rookies, debating the head of the class, and provide some analysis on the gainers and decliners among the veterans for next season.

We start with the guys under center, even if it is their wet-behind-the-ear targets who make this such a productive fantasy season for first-year picks.

Quarterbacks

The Case for No. 1

Derek Carr was the first rookie quarterback to start and had the best numbers this season among first-year passers, but we are going with Blake Bortles, the first quarterback drafted, with the most long-term potential for fantasy owners. We like Bortles' future slightly better because of his scrambling ability and the likelihood he improves leaps and bounds as he matures and gains experience.

Bortles has had five runs of 20-plus yards; only Jeremy Hill and Tre Mason had more among rookies. He will also improve at a greater clip because of the young receiving corps around him.

Carr's improvement figures to be more incremental. He was already protected by a pretty good pass-protecting offense line, as he was sacked only 21 times. Bortles, on the other hand, was sacked 50 times. Granted, sacks can be on the quarterback, but we are going to give Bortles a pass there. Once his sack total goes down, so, too, will the interceptions.

If there is an early-round fantasy star in this class, it will be Bortles. Although the New England Patriots' Jimmy Garoppolo is a wild card, he will have a long wait for Tom Brady's retirement. Carr has already had his moments as a fantasy option in year one, but he will top out as a solid but not spectacular fantasy option long term.

Rk	Player	TM	Comp	Att	Pct	Yds	TD	Int	Rate
1	Blake Bortles	JAC	266	442	60.2	2,791	11	17	70.8
2	Derek Carr	OAK	330	563	58.6	3,112	20	11	77.7
3	Teddy Bridgewater	MIN	242	377	64.2	2,710	13	11	84.9
4	Jimmy Garoppolo	NE	9	10	90	92	1	0	138.3
5	Johnny Manziel	CLE	18	35	51.4	175	0	2	42
6	Zach Mettenberger	TEN	107	179	59.8	1,412	8	7	83.4
7	Tom Savage	HOU	10	19	52.6	127	0	1	51.9
8	Logan Thomas	ARI	1	9	11.1	81	1	0	101.6

A Look at 2015

Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

No one in this rookie class will be starter-worthy in standard one-quarterback formats in his sophomore season, with only Carr being a viable backup selection or two-quarterback-format pick. Teddy Bridgewater will remain a game manager for the Vikings, a team that focuses on running the football and playing defense.

Johnny Manziel's rookie season could not have gone worse. The Cleveland Browns would be wise to avoid slotting him as the starter going into next season.

Zach Mettenberger showed enough to potentially be the Tennessee Titans' future at quarterback, but their draft position might give them a chance to draft a more high-ceiling star this spring.

Decliners

We see the following veteran quarterbacks as having had their best days. Their fantasy value will be in the decline to varying degrees, and they cannot be kept at the same premium or drafted as high as 2014.

We rank these by how much fantasy ground they have lost this year:

1. Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins
2. EJ Manuel, Buffalo Bills
3. Johnny Manziel, Cleveland Browns
4. Jake Locker, Tennessee Titans
5. Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers
6. Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears
7. Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals
8. Michael Vick, New York Jets
9. Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals
10. Mark Sanchez, Philadelphia Eagles

Gainers

Here are the veteran quarterbacks we see with their arrow pointing up. They should be even better in 2015 and beyond, trumping their draft position both from this year and for next.

We rank these QBs by how high their ceiling is long term:

1. Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts
2. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers
3. Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks
4. Nick Foles, Philadelphia Eagles
5. Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins
6. Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars
7. Jimmy Garoppolo, New England Patriots
8. Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders
9. Teddy Bridgewater, Minnesota Vikings
10. Geno Smith, New York Jets

Running Backs

The Case for No. 1

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

This wound up being a very good rookie class despite modest expectations. If Jeremy Hill's full season didn't convince you he is the No. 1 back of the class, his performance Monday night (22 carries for 147 yards and an 85-yard touchdown) against the NFL's No. 2 run defense had to.

Hill not only put away Giovani Bernard as the Cincinnati Bengals' feature back, he also made a very good case to be a fantasy first-rounder for 2015. The fact offensive coordinator Hue Jackson calls a run-heavy game certainly helps, too. Hill has the look of an annual 1,200-yard, 10-plus-touchdown back, if not a future rushing champion in that system.

Tre Mason showed flashes of elite potential, too, but he is stuck in a less productive offense in St. Louis that is still searching for its quarterback. It also hurt him that he has had to play most of the elite run defenses, especially because he lines up in the NFC West. Mason still is a fantasy starter now and beyond, perhaps even a perennial first-rounder.

The rest of the class has potential, particularly Jerick McKinnon and the very disappointing Bishop Sankey—his line will be much better and healthier going forward—but what it gives us in variety of options it lacks in certainty.

Rk	Player	TM	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	20+	40+	FUM
1	Jeremy Hill	CIN	199	1,024	5.1	9	7	3	4
2	Tre Mason	STL	168	737	4.4	4	6	1	2
3	Carlos Hyde	SF	83	333	4.0	4	1	0	1
4	Isaiah Crowell	CLE	144	601	4.2	8	5	0	3
5	Bishop Sankey	TEN	148	551	3.7	2	1	0	1
6	Andre Williams	NYG	202	678	3.4	6	4	2	1
7	Jerick McKinnon	MIN	113	538	4.8	0	4	1	0
8	Lorenzo Taliaferro	BAL	68	292	4.3	4	3	0	1
9	Terrance West	CLE	153	579	3.8	3	3	0	1
10	Devonta Freeman	ATL	59	235	4.0	1	2	0	1
11	Charles Sims	TB	48	116	2.4	0	0	0	2
12	De'Anthony Thomas	KC	13	95	7.3	1	1	0	0
13	Ka'Deem Carey	CHI	36	158	4.4	0	0	0	0
14	Dri Archer	PIT	9	41	4.6	0	0	0	0
15	Alfred Blue	HOU	152	489	3.2	1	2	1	0
16	Juwan Thompson	DEN	54	272	5.0	3	2	1	1
17	Silas Redd	WAS	16	75	4.7	1	0	0	1
18	Branden Oliver	SD	146	511	3.5	2	3	1	0
19	James White	NE	9	38	4.2	0	0	0	0
20	Damien Williams	MIA	36	122	3.4	0	0	0	0
21	Storm Johnson	JAC	29	86	3.0	2	1	0	0
22	Marion Grice	ARI	15	41	2.7	1	0	0	0
23	Darrin Reaves	CAR	31	78	2.5	0	0	0	0

A Look at 2015

There are more starting quarterbacks than running backs going into next season as we look right now, but that is always a fluid thing at this position. Also, while the quarterbacks might be NFL starters, they are not fantasy starters.

Hill and Mason are sure things to be drafted as such right now. Isaiah Crowell might not be far behind, but his value is also tied to how the Browns solve the quarterback position. We could elevate a few more of these backs to fantasy-starter status before draft day or opening day next year.

Decliners

Running back is a young man's position. Fantasy football is well aware of that. These running backs have seen better days and should be downgraded because of their age plus wear and tear. 

The rankings below reflect value lost. The higher guys have dropped further. You cannot see these guys as anything more than backups, no matter if they are slotted as starters for their teams going into next season.

1. Ray Rice, Free Agent
2. Reggie Bush, Detroit Lions
3. Chris Johnson, New York Jets 
4. Maurice Jones-Drew, Oakland Raiders
5. Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders
6. Toby Gerhart, Jacksonville Jaguars
7. Trent Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
8. Steven Jackson, Atlanta Falcons
9. Darren Sproles, Philadelphia Eagles
10. Ben Tate, Minnesota Vikings
11. Knowshon Moreno, Miami Dolphins
12. Shane Vereen, New England Patriots
13. DeAngelo Williams, Carolina Panthers
14. Fred Jackson, Buffalo Bills
15. Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati Bengals
16. C.J. Spiller, Buffalo Bills
17. Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers
18. Montee Ball, Denver Broncos
19. Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
20. Andre Ellington, Arizona Cardinals

Gainers

Not all running backs get worse with age. Here are the ones we like to trump their 2014 value and draft position next year. They are ranked by their long-term fantasy ceiling.

1. Le'Veon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers
2. Eddie Lacy, Green Bay Packers
3. Jeremy Hill, Cincinnati Bengals
4. C.J. Anderson, Denver Broncos
5. Tre Mason, St. Louis Rams
6. Lamar Miller, Miami Dolphins
7. Knile Davis, Kansas City Chiefs
8. Mark Ingram, New Orleans Saints
9. Carlos Hyde, San Francisco 49ers
10. Isaiah Crowell, Cleveland Browns

Wide Receivers

The Case for No. 1

Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

Here is where the real stars of the 2014 rookie class come in. You can debate these rankings until the end of time, and fantasy owners probably will. The early returns have us thinking this receiver's crop might be as legendary as the 1983 quarterback class.

You have to give Odell Beckham the top nod amid his late-season surge and remarkable headline-making one-handed catches. Mike Evans outperformed Sammy Watkins this year, but we like Watkins to push Beckham atop this class long term—if not as the No. 1 overall wide receiver in fantasy someday.

Like everything in fantasy, it boils down to quarterback play. In that event, you have to love Kelvin Benjamin, Brandin Cooks, Davante Adams and Donte Moncrief's potential in the near and long term.

Beckham is the revelation, though, and arguably the MVP of fantasy—incredibly rare for any rookie, much less a receiver—with what he did down the stretch, as we wrote in Week 16 Biggest Takeaways. 

Rk	Player	TM	Rec	Yds	Avg	TD	20+	40+	FUM
1	Odell Beckham	NYG	79	1120	14.2	11	14	5	0
2	Sammy Watkins	BUF	62	925	14.9	6	13	3	1
3	Mike Evans	TB	63	997	15.8	11	20	4	0
4	Kelvin Benjamin	CAR	72	999	13.9	9	14	2	1
5	Brandin Cooks	NO	53	550	10.4	3	4	2	0
6	Martavis Bryant	PIT	25	528	21.1	7	7	5	0
7	Jordan Matthews	PHI	59	767	13.0	7	14	1	0
8	Jarvis Landry	MIA	79	703	8.9	5	6	0	1
9	Davante Adams	GB	38	446	11.7	3	5	1	0
10	Donte Moncrief	IND	29	428	14.8	3	7	3	0
11	John Brown	ARI	44	645	14.7	5	11	2	0
12	Allen Hurns	JAC	49	662	13.5	6	11	4	0
13	Allen Robinson	JAC	48	548	11.4	2	5	2	0
14	Marqise Lee	JAC	35	414	11.8	1	6	0	0
15	Cody Latimer	DEN	1	9	9.0	0	0	0	0
16	Paul Richardson	SEA	24	211	8.8	1	2	0	0
17	De'Anthony Thomas	KC	20	128	6.4	0	0	0	0
18	Dri Archer	PIT	5	4	0.8	0	0	0	0
19	Taylor Gabriel	CLE	33	555	16.8	1	9	3	0
20	Philly Brown	CAR	20	268	13.4	2	2	1	0
21	Bruce Ellington	SF	6	62	10.3	2	1	0	0
22	Corey Washington	NYG	5	52	10.4	1	1	0	0
23	Josh Huff	PHI	7	92	13.1	0	1	1	1
24	Jalen Saunders	NO	1	7	7.0	0	0	0	0
25	Albert Wilson	KC	16	260	16.3	0	4	1	0

A Look at 2015

This is not only an elite class with the top-end talent—the first four above can be ranked among the top 15 fantasy wideouts already—but it is deep, too. It runs at least eight deep in viable 2015 starting options, and we are just scratching the surface.

As many as 20 of these receivers will be considered viable picks at various rounds of next August's drafts. That is a remarkable number when you consider only about 60 fantasy wideouts get picked in standard 12-team leagues.

Decliners

One of the most overlooked fantasy theorems of ours is the decline of wide receiver after the age of 28. We continue to see once-elite field-stretchers look more and more like possession guys after that plateau.

Here are the wideouts who lost fantasy value this season—again ranking them on how much they moved from their preseason 2014 draft position:

1. Wes Welker, Denver Broncos
2. Cordarrelle Patterson, Minnesota Vikings
3. Pierre Garcon, Washington Redskins
4. Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts
5. Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs
6. Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals
7. Terrance Williams, Dallas Cowboys
8. Michael Crabtree, San Francisco 49ers
9. Danny Amendola, New England Patriots
10. Stevie Johnson, San Francisco 49ers
11. Vincent Jackson, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
12. Marques Colston, New Orleans Saints
13. James Jones, Oakland Raiders
14. Tavon Austin, St. Louis Rams
15. Hakeem Nicks, Indianapolis Colts
16. Rueben Randle, New York Giants 
17. Percy Harvin, New York Jets
18. Eric Decker, New York Jets
19. Aaron Dobson, New England Patriots
20. Mike Williams, Free Agent
21. Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons
22. Andre Johnson, Houston Texans
23. Brandon Marshall, Chicago Bears
24. Victor Cruz, New York Giants
25. Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions

Gainers

The quality and production of the rookie class certainly helped push those preceding names down draft boards. Here are 10 wideouts who either moved into the elite category or the certain-fantasy-starter category this season, ranked by their 2015 ceilings:

1. Odell Beckham, New York Giants
2. Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh Steelers
3. Emmanuel Sanders, Denver Broncos
4. Jeremy Maclin, Philadelphia Eagles
5. Kelvin Benjamin, Carolina Panthers
6. DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans
7. Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
8. Sammy Watkins, Buffalo Bills
9. Jordan Matthews, Philadelphia Eagles
10. Golden Tate, Detroit Lions

Tight Ends

The Case for No. 1

Alex Goodlett/Getty Images

This was the Detroit Lions' Eric Ebron's spot to lose, and he did. We give the nod to Austin Seferian-Jenkins because of his size (6'5") and red-zone potential despite the questions he will have to deal with at quarterback for the foreseeable future in Tampa. Ebron and Jace Amaro struggled more with drops than Seferian-Jenkins, too.

No one from this class looks like a star at this point, particularly because Ebron was such as non-factor in fantasy this season. Seferian-Jenkins is the lone guy who looks capable of a 10-touchdown season in the future, even if Ebron might be the only one who will ever post a 1,000-yard campaign.

Rk	Player	TM	Rec	Yds	Avg	TD	20+	40+	FUM
1	Austin Seferian-Jenkins	TB	21	221	10.5	2	3	0	1
2	Eric Ebron	DET	23	210	9.1	1	0	0	0
3	Jace Amaro	NYJ	35	311	8.9	2	4	1	1
4	Richard Rodgers	GB	15	185	12.3	2	3	1	0
5	Troy Niklas	ARI	3	38	12.7	0	0	0	0
6	Crockett Gillmore	BAL	9	99	11.0	1	1	0	0
7	C.J. Fiedorowicz	HOU	4	28	7.0	1	0	0	0
8	Ryan Hewitt	CIN	7	55	7.9	0	0	0	0

A Look at 2015

Because we are big believers in not drafting a backup tight end—the waiver options are a dime a dozen—none of the rookies above should be considered draft-day selections. They will impact fantasy from time to time, but the consistency won't be there.

We rank Richard Rodgers fourth on long-term potential, but the fact he has Aaron Rodgers throwing him passes might make him the most intriguing short-term option. Again, he will be silent in games from time to time, too.

Decliners

The position has its young options, but most fantasy starters are in the grizzled-veteran category. Here are the guys who have lost mojo this season, ranked by just how much they have declined in fantasy-starter terms:

1. Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers
2. Dennis Pitta, Baltimore Ravens
3. Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys
4. Ladarius Green, San Diego Chargers
5. Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles
6. Heath Miller, Pittsburgh Steelers
7. Jordan Cameron, Cleveland Browns
8. Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers
9. Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota Vikings
10. Julius Thomas, Denver Broncos

Gainers

We were hoping to add a few alternatives for fantasy owners who don't want to pay the premium for Rob Gronkowski or Jimmy Graham, but we have found the haves and have-nots only gained a wider divide in fantasy here. The Broncos' Julius Thomas struggled with injury and proved to be below their level.

Still, we like the following to improve as viable fantasy starters going forward:

1. Coby Fleener, Indianapolis Colts
2. Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs
3. Dwayne Allen, Indianapolis Colts
4. Mychal Rivera, Oakland Raiders
5. Larry Donnell, New York Giants
6. Tim Wright, New England Patriots
7. Jordan Reed, Washington Redskins
8. Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
9. Luke Willson, Seattle Seahawks
10. Gavin Escobar, Dallas Cowboys

Follow @EricMackFantasy

Eric Mack, one of the giants among fantasy writers, is the Fantasy Football Lead Writer for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, where you can ask him endless questions about your team, rip him for his content and even challenge him to a head-to-head fantasy game.