Alamo Bowl Betting: UCLA Bruins vs. Kansas State Wildcats Odds, Pick

Kansas State is back in a bowl for the sixth straight season, but the Wildcats have been bad bowl bets lately, going just 1-5 both straight up and against the spread in those last six bowls. Kansas State hopes to reverse that trend when it takes on UCLA in the 22nd edition of the Alamo Bowl Friday, January 2 at the Alamodome in San Antonio.

Alamo Bowl point spread: Wildcats opened as 2.5-point favorites; the total was 59.5. (Line updates and matchup report).

Odds Shark computer prediction: 40.3-32.3 Wildcats

Why the Bruins can cover the spread

The Bruins started 4-0 this season, including a 62-27 victory at Arizona State. UCLA then lost back-to-back games to Utah and Oregon but then won five in a row, including a 17-7 victory over eventual Pac-12 South champion Arizona and a third straight win over rival USC.

The Bruins then fell in their regular-season finale to Stanford, but they are playing in a bowl for the fourth straight season. UCLA ranks 23rd in total offense, averaging 269 yards per game through the air and 199 yards per game on the ground, so the Bruins have the ability to simply outscore almost any opponent, as they did against Memphis (42-35), Cal (36-34) and Colorado 40-37).

UCLA played against some tough expectations earlier this season and some big spreads, and it consequently went 1-7 ATS through its first eight games. But the Bruins then covered the spread in three of their last four contests.

Why the Wildcats can cover the spread

The Wildcats only lost three games this season—to Auburn by a touchdown, at TCU and at Baylor. Those three teams combined to go 30-6 this season, and both the Frogs and Bears had good cases in support of a College Football Playoff berth.

Kansas State also went 8-2 ATS over its last 10 games, with wins and covers against Oklahoma, Texas, Oklahoma State and West Virginia. On the season, the 'Cats rank 50th in the country in total offense, as quarterback Jake Waters has accounted for 3,600 yards and 28 touchdowns, and wide receiver Tyler Lockett has caught 93 balls for almost 1,400 yards and nine scores.

And the Kansas State defense ranks 36th overall and has held seven opponents to 20 points or less.

Smart Pick

UCLA holds an edge on offense, while Kansas State holds an edge on defense. And in close calls like this, it's usually wiser to go with the better defense. On top of that, Wildcats head coach Bill Snyder is a handy guy to have on your side when trying to win a bet; his teams are 34-16 ATS over the last four seasons. So the smart money in this spot resides with Kansas State.

Trends

• UCLA is 5-1 SU in its last six games.
• Kansas State is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games.

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