GoDaddy Bowl Betting: Toledo Rockets vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves Odds, Pick

Arkansas State has won and covered each of the last two GoDaddy Bowl games. The Red Wolves get a chance to run that string to three in a row when they return to familiar territory to take on the Toledo Rockets in the GoDaddy Bowl Sunday, January 4 in Mobile, Alabama.

GoDaddy Bowl point spread: Rockets opened as one-point favorites; the total was 67. (Line updates and matchup report).

Odds Shark computer prediction: 37.2-34.2 Red Wolves

Why the Rockets can cover the spread

The Rockets survived an early-season change at quarterback to claim a share of the MAC West championship and return to a bowl after a one-year absence. Toledo started 1-2 this season, with losses to eventual SEC East champion Missouri and Cincinnati.

But it won seven of its last nine games, with the only losses coming by a touchdown to the Big 12's Iowa State and by a field goal to eventual MAC champion Northern Illinois.

For the season, the Rockets rank 19th in the country in total offense, 18th in rushing at 247 yards per game, and 19th against the run, giving up just 121 yards per game on the ground. And outrushing foes by 125 yards per game is a good way to win games and cover spreads.

Why the Red Wolves can cover the spread

The Wolves started 1-2 this season, with losses at Tennessee and at Miami. ASU then won five of its next six games, covering the spread as a double-digit favorite three times. The Wolves then lost back-to-back outings but finished the regular season on a high note, bombing New Mexico State, 68-35.

So Arkansas State is playing in the GoDaddy Bowl for the fourth year in a row. The offensive-minded Red Wolves rank 21st in the country in total offense, 25th in rushing at 230 yards per game, and while the defense has its shortcomings, it also held five opponents this season to 14 points or less.

Smart Pick

This looks like a even matchup; Arkansas State owns a short edge on offense, while Toledo holds a short edge on defense. But the Rockets have outgained their last five opponents and outrushed their last 10. So the smart choice in this spot is with Toledo, minus the points.

Trends

• Toledo is 4-1 straight up in its last five games.
• Arkansas State is 13-5 against the spread in its last 18 games.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark - follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.