Outback Bowl Betting: Wisconsin Badgers vs. Auburn Tigers Odds, Pick

The Auburn Tigers may not be playing for the national championship this season, but they will get the opportunity to become the first team to kick off the New Year with a victory when they face the Wisconsin Badgers in the Outback Bowl.

The Tigers have dropped three of their last four games and failed to cover all of them during that stretch, while Wisconsin is looking to recover from an embarrassing 59-0 loss to the Ohio State Buckeyes as a four-point favorite in the Big Ten Championship Game.

Outback Bowl point spread: Tigers opened as 6.5-point favorites; the total was 62. (Line updates and matchup report).

Odds Shark computer prediction: 40.5-36.0 Badgers

Why the Badgers can cover the spread

Wisconsin not only lost the Big Ten title to the Buckeyes, the school also saw head coach Gary Andersen leave to take the same job for the Oregon State Beavers. Instead, the Badgers will have Athletic Director Barry Alvarez on the sideline coaching the team for the first time since taking over for Bret Bielema in the 2013 Rose Bowl, which the team lost, 20-14, to the Stanford Cardinal.

Alvarez is the perfect person to help the players forget about such a lousy performance against Ohio State and make them remember how good they were before that game, led by Heisman Trophy finalist Melvin Gordon, the nation’s leading rusher, who totaled 2,336 yards and 26 touchdowns.

Why the Tigers can cover the spread

Auburn may have lost three of four down the stretch, but all three losses came against bowl teams from the SEC. There’s no shame in losing, 55-44, to the Alabama Crimson Tide, the top-seeded team in the College Football Playoff, especially since the Tigers were leading, 26-21, at halftime.

There’s no doubt they can put points up on the scoreboard; the problem is slowing down their opponent at the end of the game. While that was also an issue against the Florida State Seminoles in losing last year’s BCS National Championship Game, it should not be one versus the Badgers, who simply run the ball.

Smart Pick

There may not be a bowl game that is a bigger mismatch from a conference perspective despite one of the SEC’s top teams taking on one of the Big Ten’s best. The SEC was a far superior conference during the season and could have had two teams in the College Football Playoff had Auburn, the Ole Miss Rebels or Mississippi State Bulldogs just played a little better this year.

Wisconsin winning the Big Ten West was not nearly as impressive as the competition the Tigers played in the SEC West, which should have them more than ready to win this game. Auburn is used to competing against much tougher defenses and more well-balanced offenses. The key to stopping the Badgers is slowing Gordon, so expect the Tigers to focus on him defensively.

Wisconsin has failed to cover three straight games and went 5-8 against the spread overall, so look for those negative trends to continue as Auburn wins the Outback Bowl by more than a touchdown.

Trends

• Wisconsin is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games.
• Auburn is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark - follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.