Armed Forces Bowl Betting: Pittsburgh Panthers vs. Houston Cougars Odds, Pick

The Houston Cougars are 8-1-1 against the spread the last 10 times they've played as underdogs. On the other end of the spectrum, the Pittsburgh Panthers are just 2-4 straight up and 1-5 ATS the last six times they've played as favorites. The 6-6 Panthers will be short favorites over the 7-5 Cougars when the teams meet in the 12th edition of the Armed Forces Bowl Friday, January 2 in Fort Worth.

Armed Forces Bowl point spread: Panthers opened as two-point favorites; the total was 53.5. (Line updates and matchup report).

Odds Shark computer prediction: 33.6-30.2 Cougars

Why the Panthers can cover the spread

The Panthers started 3-0 this season, with a win over Boston College, but then they lost six of their next seven games. However, one of those losses came in overtime to Duke, and four of them came by a total of 17 points.

Then, with a six-year bowl streak on the line, Pitt won its last two games, beating Syracuse, 30-7, and Miami, 35-23, to become bowl eligible. The Panthers rank 44th in total offense, 16th in rushing at 251 yards per game and 27th in total defense.

And while Pitt is just a .500 team in the win-loss column, it has outscored opponents this year by a 380-307 margin.

Why the Cougars can cover the spread

The Cougars started just 2-3 this season but won five of their last seven games SU, going 4-2-1 ATS, to make a bowl for the second straight year. And in the two games Houston lost during its recent run—against Tulane and Cincinnati—it outgained both foes.

On the season, the Cougars are averaging 226 yards per game through the air and 183 yards per game on the ground, and they have scored 104 points over their last three games. Also, the Houston defense ranks 20th in the country overall, 31st against the run and 11th in points allowed at just 19.5 per game.

Smart Pick

Both these teams will be playing under interim head coaches, because Pitt's Paul Chryst left to take over at Wisconsin and Houston fired Tony Levine. How those situations might affect the outcome of this game is up for debate.

Ultimately, while these teams put up similar numbers this season, the Panthers might be a little more battle-tested, having played a much tougher schedule. So the smart choice in this spot is Pitt, minus the points.

Trends

• Pittsburgh is 3-6 SU in its last nine games.
• The total has gone under in 12 of Houston's last 17 games.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark - follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.