Citrus Bowl Betting: Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Missouri Tigers Odds, Pick

The Minnesota Golden Gophers will try to earn their first postseason win since 2004 when they meet the Missouri Tigers in the Citrus Bowl on January 1 at 1 p.m. The Golden Gophers defeated the Alabama Crimson Tide as three-point underdogs in the 2004 Music City Bowl, and they have gone 0-6 since then straight up and 2-4 against the spread.

Citrus Bowl point spread: Tigers opened as 6.5-point favorites; the total was 48.

Odds Shark computer prediction: 29.0-28.9 Tigers.

Why the Golden Gophers can cover the spread

Minnesota has covered its last four games and went 8-4 versus the line overall this season. The Golden Gophers narrowly missed out on playing in the Big Ten Championship Game, falling to the Wisconsin Badgers 34-24 as 16-point road underdogs in a matchup that decided the Big Ten West winner.

Five of their past six covers overall have come as underdogs, with three of them resulting in wins, and they are 10-1 ATS in their previous 11 as a dog. Minnesota also has one of the best coaches in the country in Jerry Kill, who has overcome some health problems to lead the school to consecutive eight-win campaigns.

Why the Tigers can cover the spread

The Tigers have played in the SEC Championship Game two years in a row, and while they have not won it either time, that experience should pay off against a Minnesota team without a bowl victory in more than a decade.

They won six in a row before falling 42-13 to the Alabama Crimson Tide for the SEC title, also going 5-1 ATS during the winning streak. Missouri beat the Oklahoma State Cowboys 41-31 last year in the Cotton Bowl as a three-point underdog, and the team has gone 14-3 SU and 12-5 ATS in its past 17 games as a favorite.

Smart Pick

Unlike the Outback Bowl where the Auburn Tigers play the Wisconsin Badgers in another SEC versus Big Ten battle, these Tigers and Golden Gophers are two fairly similar teams that should play a competitive game.

Mizzou is not your prototypical SEC team either, joining the conference in 2012 and playing in the weaker of the two divisions. Minnesota did not play in a particularly strong Big Ten division either, but Kill has a coaching edge here and will have his players motivated to defeat an SEC team.

Last year, the Golden Gophers may have underestimated a Syracuse Orange squad that upset them 21-17 as 3.5-point favorites in the Texas Bowl. That will not be the case this time around, as Minnesota upsets Missouri to win the Citrus Bowl.

Trends

• The total has gone over in four of Minnesota's last six games.
• Missouri is 4-1 ATS in its last five games.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.