
Ranking the Top Candidates for the Selke Trophy in 2014-15 NHL Season
The NHL awards the Frank J. Selke Trophy annually to the forward who "displays the most skill in the defensive component of the game." It's a decidedly vague definition and in the last decade has been less likely to be awarded to a true defensive specialist.
Most of the winners since 2005 have been significant offensive players who also deliver a two-way game. The era of defense-first forwards like Kris Draper or Mike Peca are gone, leaving us with a less defined definition for the award.
Our look at Selke candidates will include a possession metric, the Corsi number. It is defined by Gabriel Desjardins as shot differential while a player is on the ice. All of the men on this list are exceptional in the discipline. Context is important when reading these numbers. The top-ranked center currently—Nashville's Colin Wilson—does not play tough opposition and receives a zone-start push. Those circumstances mean he would not be considered for the Selke Trophy.
The favorites this year resemble those of the past decade: Respected two-way forwards with a significant offensive kicker. Here are the 2014-15 favorites for the Selke Award.
6. Ondrej Palat, LW, Tampa Bay Lightning
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The Resume: Ondrej Palat is very unusual in that he's a young player who is making a strong impression on Selke voters. The award is normally given to veteran, established players, but Palat is less than 150 games into his career.
Has He Won It Before? Palat has never won the Selke Trophy but finished No. 11 in voting for 2013-14.
What Are His Chances This Year? Palat is a long shot this season but could win in a few years. He ranks No. 6 among left wingers in the NHL this season and plays the toughest available competition. The Tampa Bay Lightning do not give him a zone-start push in his role.
5. Marian Hossa, RW, Chicago Blackhawks
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The Resume: Marian Hossa is a splendid player who can impact the game offensively and has grown as a defensive player over the years. His reputation as a winger with a wide range of skills appears to have grown. Hossa finished No. 5 in Selke voting last season.
Has He Won It Before? Marian Hossa has never won the Selke Trophy.
What Are His Chances This Year? Hossa could win it. He ranks No. 2 in Corsi On among right wingers in the NHL this season. He plays against very difficult opposition and gets good zone starts but isn't receiving a push with the 'Hawks.
4. Anze Kopitar, C, Los Angeles Kings
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The Resume: Anze Kopitar has always had the size and skills to be an elite two-way player. In the last few years he has put it all together and is an impact player in all three zones.
Has He Won It Before? Anze Kopitar has never won the Selke Award.
What Are His Chances This Year? At this point it's a long shot for him. The Kings' center ranks No. 20 in the possession metric Corsi On, made even more impressive when viewed through his difficult quality of competition. Kopitar does get a slight zone-start push, which keeps him outside the top three on the Selke list.
3. Pavel Datsyuk, C, Detroit Red Wings
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The Resume: Pavel Datsyuk is one of the best two-way players in the game, a demon on the back check and a splendid penalty killer.
Has He Won It Before? He won the award three years in a row, 2008 through 2010. Datsyuk narrowly defeated Philadelphia Flyers' center Mike Richards in 2009.
What Are His Chances This Year? Datsyuk has played 21 games this season so his chances are reduced because he's missed some time. He ranks No. 5 overall among NHL centermen in Corsi On this year. The Selke award is a reputation award and no player has a better one in this area than Datsyuk. That might make a difference in a close vote.
2. Jonathan Toews, C, Chicago Blackhawks
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The Resume: Jonathan Toews combines a wide range of skills and is a strong Selke candidate every season.
Has He Won It Before? Toews was the 2013 recipient of the award, narrowly edging Boston Bruins center Patrice Bergeron.
What Are His Chances This Year? He is one of the favorites to win it, and he is one of the very best in the league again this year in possession numbers. His Corsi On number ranks No. 4 among NHL centers despite facing the toughest opposition available among Chicago's centers. Toews does get a push in zone starts but his overall story is exceptional again this year.
1. Patrice Bergeron, C, Boston Bruins
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The Resume: Patrice Bergeron is a complete player. Impressive offense combined with exceptional coverage and positional play make him one of the game's most valuable players.
Has He Won It Before? He won the award last season and in 2012. Of all the contenders this season who are centers, Bergeron is the one who is at the peak of his skills.
What Are His Chances This Year? Bergeron is my current choice to win the Selke Trophy. He ranks No. 3 in Corsi On among pivots and is the top center among those we associate with having two-way skills. The top-ranked player—Nashville's Colin Wilson—does not play tough opposition and receives a zone-start push. Bergeron's Corsi On is more impressive because of the way he is deployed by the Bruins.
All stats courtesy of NHL.com, behindthenet.ca and Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com
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